What is the best timing to get a cheap flight? Here’s what the data says

“What’s the cheapest day and month to fly, and how far in advance should I book my flight ticket?”

Wouldn’t it be great if there was a straight and simple answer to this question? But there are many variables in the way, including the route, the season, supply and demand for seats on a particular route, the level of competition and how far in advance a ticket is purchased.

Choose the timing of your booking and flight correctly and you could make large savings.Credit: Wolter Peeters

However, there are a few generalisations that can help you save on airfares, and Expedia has recently published its 2025 Air Hacks Report, “revealing the latest essential tips to help save Aussie travellers money and time when planning their 2025 travel”.

Based on data supplied by the Airlines Reporting Corporation (ARC) and Official Airline Guide (OAG), Expedia suggests the report’s key findings will help travellers track down the best deals on airfares, but how well do those findings work in practice?

All the flight prices below are sourced from Expedia’s own website on Thursday, 30 January, and are subject to change from day to day. Expedia’s conclusions are based on the data for the Australian market.

Expedia says: Saturday is the cheapest day to depart

What does the evidence say for a flight from Sydney to Cairns departing in the week beginning Saturday, May 3, returning one week later?

Return airfare departing Saturday, May 3, $258
Cheapest days to fly: Wednesday, May 7, and Thursday, May 8, return airfare $233
Most expensive day to fly: Friday, May 9, return airfare $336

What about Melbourne to Sunshine Coast Airport, departing in the week beginning Saturday, May 3, returning one week later?

Return airfare departing Saturday, May 3, $287
Cheapest days to fly: Wednesday, May 7, return airfare $212
Most expensive day to fly: Monday, May 5, and Friday, May 9, return airfare $327

Is Expedia right? Saturday is one of the cheaper days to fly on these routes, but airfares hit rock bottom in mid-week, Wednesday in particular.

Expedia says: Three months out is the magic window for international flights

Booking too far in advance can actually cost travellers. Booking at least three months before their international flight is the sweet spot for savings of up to 12 per cent than booking more than six months ahead.

What does the evidence say for a two-week break, Melbourne to Tokyo return?

Departing Saturday, March 1, return airfare is $753
Departing Tuesday, April 1, return airfare is $1250
Departing Thursday, May 1, return airfare is $787
Departing Sunday, August 3, return airfare is $874
Departing Saturday, November 1, return airfare is $839

And what about Sydney to Bangkok for a two-week break?

Departing Saturday, March 1, return airfare is $448
Departing Tuesday, April 1, the return airfare is $609
Departing Saturday, May 3, the return airfare is $485
Departing Friday, August 1, return airfare is $530
Departing Saturday, November 1, return airfare is $573

Is Expedia right? Fares on both these routes are cheaper at the beginning of May, in three months’ time, rather than at the beginning of April. However, if you were to book a flight on either of these routes for the beginning of March, just one month out, the flight price is less than at the beginning of May.

Booking a flight six months ahead, for the beginning of August, airfares are higher than they are three months out and Expedia is correct on this score. Booking nine months ahead is also more expensive than three months in advance.

Skyscanner Australia travel expert Jarrod Kris agrees. “As a general rule, the best time to book flights for travel is three to four months ahead of departure. However, for those still looking to get a last-minute deal, Skyscanner’s saving generator can show you the average monthly price according to the route and month.”

A Skyscanner chart shows a wide disparity in the best time to book international flights depending on the month and duration. For a flight from Melbourne to Auckland in August, the best time to book is four weeks in advance. For a flight from Sydney to London in May, the best time to book is 13 weeks in advance.

Expedia says: Average ticket prices are down, economy tickets by 10 per cent from last year while premium tickets are 3 per cent cheaper

According to the Bureau of Infrastructure and Transport Research Economics, airfares on domestic routes are down over the period from January 2024 to January 2025, by more than 30 per cent in restricted economy class, while business class airfares have dropped by more than 12 per cent. On international routes into and out of Australia, in October 2024 there were nine per cent more flights compared with October 2023. There were also 10 per cent more seats available on international flights over the same period.

The China-based airlines have increased flights into Australia in 2024 and Turkish Airlines began operating Australia flights in that year. More flights equals more competition, and downward pressure on flight prices. If the Foreign Investment Review Board and the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission agree to Virgin Australia’s request to sell a 25 per cent share to Qatar Airways, the airline will resume long-haul services, using Qatar’s fleet and aircrew to operate flights to Europe via Doha.

Is Expedia right? Expedia’s conclusion is based on the Airlines Reporting Corporation’s global airline sales database, which has a trough of data to support this claim.

Expedia says: January is the cheapest month to travel, September is the most expensive

Travelling economy in January can save travellers 11 per cent, and flying premium in October instead of March can save up to eight per cent.

Bureau of Infrastructure and Transport Research Economics statistics for domestic travel support this, with the lowest priced airfares in January 2025, but with October just fractionally ahead of September as the most expensive month.

Skyscanner’s Kris takes a more nuanced approach to the question, “When is the best time to book airfares?” “The ‘best’ or most affordable time to book a flight really depends on each individual location, so a great way to find this out is by using Skyscanner’s whole month search. You can look at pricing for the whole year ahead, to pinpoint when it’ll cost you the least to travel to your desired location.

“Another tip is to look at booking those ‘less desirable’ days. Fridays and Saturdays are often some of the most expensive days to fly given the high demand. Look to fly on the last flight out or shift to a Tuesday insight. Travelling on a weekday is usually cheaper.”

Another simple tool, fare trackers such as Expedia’s price-tracking tool and Skyscanner’s price alerts notify you of price shifts. Momondo’s flight insights also have a tonne of useful information.