There are deep polling holes and seemingly lost causes in politics, and then there’s the British Conservative Party in 2024. In most opinion polls, Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s government trails Sir Keir Starmer’s Labour opposition by more than 20 points.

Even if, come election day on July 4, the Tories were to emulate Britain’s biggest historic campaign comebacks or polling errors, they would still be in, or near, landslide-loss territory. If Labour loses this one, the party wouldn’t be following its traditional playbook of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory; rather, it would be tumbling headlong into defeat’s gaping maw.