London | A series of explosions that reportedly rocked the Russian-occupied Ukrainian city of Mariupol late last week did not just rattle the ground. If the reports are right, these attacks could potentially shake up what happens next, as the war enters its second year and a new phase.

The talk in recent months has been of likely “spring offensives” from both sides. But these would mostly represent a continuation of the war we have already seen, only more so.