When I published a bullish book about Asia in 2016, I felt I had good answers to all the sceptical questions except one. What about China’s demography? The cliche was that China will “grow old before it grows rich”. Like many cliches, it turns out to have some truth to it.
For all the talk in Beijing of a unique “China model”, the country’s economic history bears a striking resemblance to the trajectories of Japan and South Korea. The take-off phase is driven by rapid, export-led industrialisation and low-cost labour. The slowdown is closely linked with the ageing and shrinking of the population.
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Financial Times
Gideon Rachman is chief foreign affairs columnist for the Financial Times. His particular interests include American foreign policy, the European Union and globalisation.
