The COVID-19 virus is at the front of market thinking. The focus on the virus, and the economic impact of containment measures, is obscuring a potentially larger and longer-term risk to portfolio values.

The US election cycle is always important to the global outlook. This year, the combination of an unconventional political environment, rising populism and an increasingly inward-looking electorate could see the November Congressional and Presidential elections drive markets over the second half of the year.