Investors predict soft landing US recession in 2024
The consensus is a mild US recession, with bonds becoming more attractive. Last year analysts got it wrong, forecasting a tough downturn and the end of the decline in government bond prices. Oh, well!
Year-ahead outlook season is upon us again and the déjà vu vibe is strong. This time last year, investors and analysts were busy telling the world about their key convictions about 2023. Chief among them: the US was heading for a recession and the historic decline in government bond prices was over.
Now, you’ll be shocked to hear the key message for 2024 is that (sure, we got it wrong last time, but hear us out): the US is heading for recession and the historic decline in government bond prices is over.
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Financial Times
Katie Martin is the Financial Times' capital markets editor.
