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Daron Acemoglu

Don’t believe the artificial intelligence hype

Economic theory and the available data justify a more modest, realistic outlook for AI productivity gains.

Daron AcemogluEconomist

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According to tech leaders and many pundits and academics, artificial intelligence is poised to transform the world as we know it through unprecedented productivity gains.

While some believe that machines soon will do everything humans can do, ushering in a new age of boundless prosperity, other predictions are at least more grounded. For example, Goldman Sachs predicts that generative AI will boost global GDP by 7 per cent over the next decade, and the McKinsey Global Institute anticipates that the annual GDP growth rate could increase by 3-4 percentage points between now and 2040. For its part, The Economist expects that AI will create a blue-collar bonanza.

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Daron Acemoglu is Institute Professor of Economics at MIT.

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    Original URL: https://www.afr.com/technology/don-t-believe-the-artificial-intelligence-hype-20240526-p5jgnm