Such is the absurdity of three-year terms for the federal government, when all the states and territories have four-year terms, that by this time next year we will be in the shadow of another federal election.

Thus, the budget to be handed down on May 9, less than a year since the government was elected, could be the final opportunity for Jim Chalmers to take policy risks before the next election, due by May 2025 at the latest.