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Steven Hamilton

It’s time for independent forecasts to end budget trickery

An Office of Budget Honesty is needed to create a fiscal watchdog with teeth.

There is a common misconception that Treasury and the documents it produces are “independent” of government. Of course, this simply cannot be true. For any Treasury secretary (and thus his subordinates) serves the treasurer of the day.

Almost exactly 15 years ago, when I was a bright-eyed graduate joining Treasury’s budget policy division, I held this misconception. But it didn’t take long for the scales to fall from my eyes.

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Steven Hamilton is assistant professor of economics at George Washington University and visiting fellow at the Tax and Transfer Policy Institute at the ANU.

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    Original URL: https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/it-s-time-for-independent-forecasts-to-end-budget-trickery-20250119-p5l5hr