The prospect of a Dutton minority government has increased after the Coalition inched further ahead in the popular vote, according to a new poll that also suggests growing voter concern about Labor’s handling of cost-of-living pressures.

The latest The Australian Financial Review/Freshwater Strategy poll shows the Coalition leading Labor by 52 per cent to 48 per cent on a two-party-preferred basis, which is a 1 percentage point swing towards Opposition Leader Peter Dutton and his team since the last poll a month ago. It is also a swing towards the Coalition of 4.1 points since the May 2022 election.