It’s increasingly clear Anthony Albanese’s confidence a majority of Australians in a majority of states will vote Yes to support the Voice is not only challenged by the poor record of referendums passing. It also relies on the Yes campaign suddenly appealing to public sentiment in a way that it has so far singularly failed to do.

Instead, most polls show the majority soft Yes or undecided vote evident at the start of this year has instead been hardening against the proposal. While constitutional recognition of Indigenous Australians would pass easily, community backing for the Voice as a body to advise government has already fallen into extremely dangerous – if not terminal – territory.