NSW Premier Dominic Perrottet has overtaken Labor leader Chris Minns as preferred premier in a dramatic reversal of fortunes a month from polling day, as cost of living and housing fears displace climate concerns in voters’ minds.

While Labor still leads the Coalition in the two-party preferred and primary vote, exclusive polling showed Mr Minns faced a “perilous” path to form government which could require support of the Greens and the cross bench.