In the United States, they call it the “October surprise” – the habit of an unexpected event upending the presidential contest just before the election in early November.

In reality, it’s more hype and hysteria than a game-changing development. Take this year’s surprise – crass comedian Tony Hinchcliffe calling Puerto Rico “garbage” at a Trump rally. Miles of column inches and hours of TV time were dedicated to speculation on how it would damage Trump’s chances in swing states. It turned out Trump made massive gains with Latino voters. Maybe that was the surprise.