One might think that predicting the US Federal Reserve’s next policy moves would become easier now that it has already raised interest rates 10 consecutive times, for a total of 5 percentage points. Not so fast: I suspect that few, if any know for sure what the Fed will do at its June 13-14 meeting – not even the Fed itself.

Over the past two weeks, officials at the world’s most powerful and influential central bank have signalled a range of possible actions, from raising rates again to “pausing” or “skipping” this round and resuming the tightening process in July. One Fed official has even hinted that it would have been better for the institution not to raise at its last meeting, in May.

Project Syndicate