Perhaps surprisingly, all historical analysis suggests that the fortunes of the US economy are little affected by the policies of any particular president. The actions of businesses, households and institutions like the Federal Reserve Board dominate the influence of US presidents, who tend to be passengers rather than drivers of the business cycle. Until now.

President Donald Trump now blames everyone but himself for the ominous signs of recession and disruption that beset the United States. The truth is that Trump has entirely by himself visited the gathering economic storm upon his country and upon the world. It is the reckless pursuit of the trade war with China and arbitrary actions that defy established rules and economic logic – most recently, declaring China a currency manipulator – that have spooked US and global financial markets and encouraged the global flight to bonds and cash.