Treasurer Jim Chalmers has started a conversation with the Australian people about the nation’s economic challenges. Yet, so far, this is an ominous conversation without a clear narrative. It’s not clear what his downbeat words are providing political cover for. Days into the job, he talked of a “dire” economic situation and no guarantee that Australia’s timely commodity price boom and record-high terms of trade would help.

But then the federal government’s budget deficit for 2021-22 came in nearly $50 billion lower than expected just months ago, and credible forecasts say it could be as much as $140 billion better off over the next four years.