Before he finished his PhD in economics, Ken Rogoff decided he would have to give up chess: he was ranked 40th in the world at the time, but realised he wasn't going to make it to number one in the game.

However, like everyone else in the world, the Harvard economics professor who spoke at The Australian Financial Review Business Summit this week could well use the great skill of chess players – to anticipate several moves ahead – on the global outlook just now.