For months, the consensus in the global oil market was that 2025 would be a year marked by a bulky surplus and flat to soft pricing. Suddenly – after the boldest package of US sanctions yet against Russia’s energy industry – the outlook is more complicated.
“Just one week into the year, we have already tested the top of the ‘event risk premium’ price range,” RBC Capital Markets analysts including Brian Leisen wrote in a report. “The new Russian sanctions from the outgoing administration are a net addition to at-risk supply.”
