Almost 11 months to the day after he was elected unopposed as leader of a shattered federal Liberal Party, Peter Dutton made history. For all the wrong reasons. It was April 1, 2023, and the Coalition lost the outer suburban Melbourne seat of Aston; the first time in more than a century – 103 years, to be precise – that an opposition lost a seat to a government in a federal byelection.

Making the loss ever more resonant was that Dutton, upon becoming leader, had declared the outer suburbs would be the Coalition’s salvation. He had brushed off the loss of nine blue-ribbon Liberal seats to teals and other independents, claiming that the path back to power would be in the mortgage belt and the regional areas hugging the major cities. Aston, where the cost of living was biting hard, was meant to be an opportunity to demonstrate all of that.