Scott Morrison confidently reassures Australians there’s no reason not to go to the footy this weekend as he plans to do. That is the health advice to government for the moment, he insists, even if that advice might change "at some point in the future" as the coronavirus evolves.

But what if current health advice turns out to very, very wrong? What if the delay in much more draconian lockdowns and bans, particularly of large gatherings, means Australia is heading down more of an Italian crisis path than countries like Singapore and Taiwan, which have been much tougher in their early responses?