Forecasts that power prices will stay high for years suggest Origin Energy could rake in enough cash from the Eraring power station to avoid tapping a $225 million government compensation fund to keep the facility open, an analyst says.

The Minns government and Origin agreed to extend the life of the coal-fired power station for at least two more years until August 2027, and for it to produce at least six terawatt hours of power a year to help avoid shortfalls in the eastern states’ National Electricity Market.