If you want to understand how it is that the ASX 200 reached a record high before Wall Street regained its recent peak, you need to go inside the mind of big global investors, and particularly those sitting outside the United States. Matthew Hornbach, global head of macro strategy at Morgan Stanley, says there are two clear messages coming through from this cohort right now.

First, they’re deeply sceptical about the foundations of the powerful Wall Street rally, which as of Tuesday night stands at 21 per cent from the lows seen on April 9. Where Hornbach says the lived experience of retail investors in the US might be telling them the economy can navigate US President Donald Trump’s tariff mess to a soft landing, institutions are justifiably nervous – because the pain is still yet to really arrive.