KFC SuperCoach NRL no go zone 2021: Players to avoid
Josh Papalii may be arguably the best prop in the NRL at the moment, but this alarming stat may mean he’s a sell in KFC SuperCoach.
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Maybe they’re injured, maybe their stats are deceptive or maybe they just wont start the year. You’ll want to avoid these players to start the year, but still keep an eye on them as some could become cut-priced bargains down the track.
Josh Papalii, FRF, $560,400
Currently the 23rd most popular player and one of the most owned FRF’s in the game, KFC SuperCoaches may want to reconsider how they feel about the Raiders enforcer. While he was one of the highest averaging FRF’s in 2020 with 63, his average may actually be misleading compared to other gun props like David Klemmer. If you look at the games where Josh Papalii actually reached or outscored his average, almost all of them were games he scored tries. Compared with the majority of games where he doesn’t score tries, Josh Papalii actually consistently struggles to even get near his average. Papalii actually had 10 games with less than 60 points in 2020, including five games with 50 points or less. On top of that, Papalii played extremely inconsistent minutes, ranging from 31 to 63. At the price you’re paying here I think you’re better off spending slightly more to get a more consistent option like David Klemmer, or even look at some of the cheaper options like Tino Fa’asuamaleaui. Every player is capable of coming up with dud scores, but when you’re shelling out this much for a gun, you don’t want to spend it on someone who seems to be coming up with dud scores this consistently.
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Jason Taumalolo, 2RF, $641,700
Jason Taumalolo’s KFC SuperCoach credentials have taken a massive hit following recent news out of Townsville, going from the third most popular player, to 16! It’s a double whammy: Taumalolo will not only play reduced minutes, but also concentrate more on passing. Both will have a huge negative impact on his KFC SuperCoach output.
However Jason Taumalolo has opened up on the Cowboys new game plan, revealing that while his minutes and base stats may go down, he could crossing over for more tries in 2021.
When on the field, Cowboys coach Todd Payten has given Taumalolo permission to roam and play on an edge in attack, a move which will see how running at smaller men close to the try line more often. The news means that while Taumalolo’s floor drops drastically, his ceiling also goes even higher, but altogether making him a much more risky player. He could still very well end up as one of the best players at 2RF once again, but SuperCoaches need to be aware he may not be as consistent.
David Nofoaluma, CTW, $670,200
Nofo is coming off a belter last year where he finished second for overall points and topped the CTW position by almost 150 points. So surely he’s an option again for the upcoming KFC SuperCoach season? The answer is obviously yes, but definitely not from the start of the year. Nofoaluma scored 17 tries last year — more than double his average over an eight year career.
The 17 tries, many with associated linebreaks and tackle busts, led to a KFC SuperCoach increase of 11 points per game compared to his best previous season. Translation: History shows Nofo’s 2020 was a statistical outlier and he likely drops in price over the opening rounds.
That said, averages of 60, 64, 52 and 65 over the previous four seasons show Nofo will be a massive factor at some stage, hopefully after a price drop. Moreover, given the volatile nature of the CTW position, it’s best to concentrate on value buys early and pick up big guns like Nofoaluma later.
Ben Trbojevic, CTW/2RF, $173,700 & Zac Saddler FRF/2RF
Currently the 17th most popular player in KFC SuperCoach, owners of ‘Burbo’ may want to move on to other cheapies, despite his bottom dollar price and handy dual position. Unfortunately Burbo is pretty far down the pecking order in Manly at both centre and in the back row, and it would likely take a pretty dire injury crisis at the Sea Eagles to see any significant gametime. Obviously if he somehow earns a starting role then disregard this all and get him in your team, but for now that seems pretty unlikely, so you may be better off going with a cheapie or mid-ranger who will actually start the year and make you some cash.
Sticking with another Manly cheapie, Zac Saddler is currently a development player at the club and ineligible to play until June 30. We know we won’t see him on the field for at least four months so for the 18.1% of players who own him, he’s got to go.
Isaah Yeo, 2RF, $612,600
The star Panther was a must-have last year as a backline “banker”, with KFC SuperCoaches benefiting from his dual-position eligibility (2RF/CTW) and an ever-reliable average of 58 points in pure base stats. That’s approximately double the base of other top CTWs (for example, position leader Nofoaluma averaged just 31 in base).
Of course, these stats are severely skewed given Yeo didn’t play in the backline at all in 2020, rather pumping out an enormous workrate as a high-minute middle forward. Yeo started all games last year in the back row and he’s therefore been stripped of dual status, which severely impacts his KFC SuperCoach worth. That said, Yeo still notched the eight best average of any 2RF last season and will no doubt come into contention as a buy later in the season.
Tyson Frizell, 2RF, $556,300
Coming off an incredibly consistent statistical year where he produced the third most points of any 2RF. After eight seasons at the Dragons, Frizell moves to the Knights in 2021 as the club’s star signing and will no doubt play a big role. However, Frizell averaged 79.85 minutes per game last year, essentially leaving no room for improvement. But take a look at how coach Adam O’Brien uses him over the opening rounds because Frizell may emerge as a buy down the track if he locks in an 80 minute role.
Valentine Holmes, CTW/FLB, $509,400
While initially on many KFC SuperCoaches buylist with return to fullback and the goal kicking duties, the news has gotten worse and worse for Val as the season has gone on. After seeing the Cowboys line up in their trial matches, it seems new coach Todd Payten has opted to play Scott Drinkwater at fullback, with Val being shifted to the wing and Jack Clifford partnering Michael Morgan in the half. Even worse than playing on the wing, it seems Clifford will also steal the goalkicking duties from Val, making him a $500k winger who won’t have the points boost from goals. Unless team list Tuesday reveals he will play fullback, Val is simply to expensive to start the year with.
Ryan James, FRF/2RF, $236,700
While he has been a KFC SuperCoach gun in the past, you should probably hit the trade button on the 19th most popular player at the moment. Returning from back-to-back ACL injuries and moving to Canberra, James is obviously a very risky pick even before you consider he may struggle to crack the starting side, or even the top-17. James looked solid enough in his trial outings for the Raiders, but it still remains to be seen where he fits in. Josh Papalii and Dunamis Lui will likely start in the front row, while the backrow seems locked in with Elliot Whitehead, Joe Tapine and Hudson Young. Luckily the dramas with Corey Harawira-Naera and Core Horsburgh mean he could nab a bench spot, but even then bench backrowers don’t exactly scream value for KFC SuperCoach.
Aiden Tolman, FRF, $572,200
Make no mistake, Tolman is one of the most consistent KFC SuperCoach players going around. His averages over the past five years have barely varied — 65, 60, 50, 57 and 56. Likewise, his PPM has barely varied — 1.06, 1.01, 0.90, 0.92 and 0.94. However, with essentially no attacking output, Tolman relies almost entirely on base stats for KFC SuperCoach points (61 of his 65 average points last year came from base). This also means he’s heavily reliant on game time, which is totally up in the air after switching from the Bulldogs to the Sharks.
Patrick Carrigan, 2RF, $591,700
Starting the 2020 season as a mid-range sleeper, the Broncos captain made an incredible $228,800 and was a top-17 player for many KFC SuperCoaches right through to the end. Much of his appeal came from dual flexibility between the front and back row. But Carrigan has been stripped of FRF status after starting all his 19 games at lock. Like Yeo above, Carrigan may still emerge as a buy down the track (he notched the seventh most points at 2RF last year) but there are definitely more sexy buys to start the season.
AJ Brimson, FLB, $651,600
Stormed home with a 73.6 average in the final nine games of 2020 and therefore emerged as a star POD. However, there are a few points to note here. Firstly, much of Brimson’s appeal came from dual positioning as five-eighth and fullback. But all Brimson’s games in 2020 were at fullback and he’s therefore been stripped of dual status. Secondly, Brimson’s stunning run last year means he starts as the third most expensive fullback in KFC SuperCoach and he’s very hard to back at the price in such a stacked position. Thirdly, Brimson is easing back from a serious foot injury sustained in Origin. A definite wait-and-see.
MORE SUPERCOACH:
KFC SuperCoach NRL: 21 players set to shine in 2021
SuperCoach club-by-club guide to transfer madness
KFC SuperCoach NRL transfer guide — Part 2
Strength of schedule: SuperCoach draw analysis
KFC SuperCoach NRL 2021 Cheapie Bible
CASUALTY WARD: Every club’s injury list revealed
Tom Sangster’s 2021 KFC SuperCoach NRL team
Rob Sutherland’s 2021 KFC SuperCoach NRL team
KFC SuperCoach 2021: Wilson Smith’s team revealed
Kurt Mann, HOK/5/8, $570,200
Mann was outstanding in 2020 playing five-eighth for the first 12 rounds and then filling in at hooker to close the season after injury struck down no fewer than three Newcastle number nines. However, first choice hooker Jayden Brailey looks set to start the year at 9, and Connor Watson likely starting at lock but able to back up at dummy-half if needed. Barring another run of injuries Mann won’t play hooker in 2021. His preferred position is number six, and despite being very impressive there in 2020, once Blake Green returns from injury there is a very real chance Mann is, at best, on the interchange bench. Too much danger for mine especially at this price.
Shaun Johnson, HFB/5/8, $603,500
While certain to be accused of stating the obvious here, I also point to the fact Johnson is currently owned by 11 per cent of KFC SuperCoaches — this despite SJ being ruled out of the season start due to an Achilles injury. In an ideal world, the fantasy gods would ensure Johnson be eased back from injury and therefore drop to a juicy price right in time for the Origin period. The other KFC SuperCoach implication from Johnson’s injury is that Matt Moylan is set to start the year at five-eighth. Compared to previous output, he’s outrageously cheap at $253,600 following a horror year with injury.
Kalyn Ponga, FLB, $708,200
Again, stating the bleeding obvious here but Ponga set to miss the opening rounds due to off-season shoulder surgery. At this price you just can’t afford to start the year with him when there are other options who will start and possibly make you some cash. Ponga could be an upgrade target later on in the season, especially if he is eased back in, and for now is definitely one to avoid.
MORE KEY INJURIES/SUSPENSIONS (full casualty ward)
Cameron McInnes (ACL, season)
Payne Haas (disciplinary ban, round four)
Jake Averillo (elbow, set to miss trials)
Tom Trbojevic (hamstring, round four)
Harry Grant (knee, round three-four)
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