Money Ball: How Crows let Matt Rowell get away, the latest trade and contract news, plus is Izak Rankine gettable for Adelaide?
A Round 19 loss to Carlton last year may have seemed insignificant at the time – but it played a huge part in Adelaide letting Matt Rowell slip through its fingers. Plus, trade and contract latest.
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As Adelaide players trudge off the MCG on July 27, 2019, they are not to know their upset loss to Carlton has cost the Crows potential superstar Matt Rowell.
Not only did the 27-point defeat dent Adelaide’s finals chances and heap pressure on soon-to-be-departed coach Don Pyke, it extinguished its hopes of landing the No. 1 pick.
Eight months earlier, the Crows swapped 2019 first-round draft choices with the Blues – who also received the 19th selection in 2018 – with Rowell in mind.
The Oakleigh Chargers midfielder had been best-on-ground in a losing under-18 TAC Cup grand final as a 17-year-old and was projected as the likely top choice and a can’t-miss prospect.
After Round 14 last year, a Twitter account, @CrowsPick, that provided weekly updates on the selection swap read: “pick 1 (Adelaide), pick 14 (Carlton)” – and Crows officials and fans would have been licking their lips.
But from 1-10 and two wins from second-bottom at the start of June, the Blues won six of their last 11 games, including that Round 19 triumph over Adelaide that moved them three victories clear of the Suns and all but ensured Gold Coast would get Rowell with pick one.
The Crows finished 11th and took key-position player Fischer McAsey after trading down from pick four to six, to acquire GWS’s first choice this year.
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It looms as a significant sliding-doors scenario.
McAsey has shown promise in attack and defence for Adelaide, which has slumped to 0-6 this season, is an under-18 All-Australian and reigning Vic Metro MVP, and a long-term replacement for Taylor Walker or Daniel Talia.
But what if the Crows nabbed Rowell, who led Rising Star Award betting for the 3-3 Suns before injuring his shoulder, and already looked a future gun of the competition?
Adelaide also swung and missed at trying to land a Suns star-in-the-making a year earlier.
Armed with picks eight, 13, 16 and 21, the Crows tried to move up the order in 2018 for the so-called “Superdraft” that included SA trio Jack Lukosius, Izak Rankine and Connor Rozee, along with the likes of Ben and Max King, and Bailey Smith.
But they could not strike a deal with Gold Coast, which had selections two, three and six, and ultimately took Lukosius, Rankine and Victorian Ben King.
Adelaide had played in a grand final just seven weeks earlier and the Suns were intent on taking Lukosius and Rankine, unless an extraordinary” offer emerged.
Cross-town rival Port Adelaide was able to trade up to pick five – after shifting dual All-Australian Chad Wingard (Hawthorn) and Jared Polec (North Melbourne) – so it could take Rozee.
“We had a crack at them (the Suns) over two or three weeks,’’ Crows recruiting boss Hamish Ogilvie said at the time, after drafting Chayce Jones (nine), Ned McHenry (16), Will Hamill (30) and Lachlan Sholl (64) that year.
“We understand where Gold Coast is at and they got two beauties (from SA).
“We’re really pleased with the boys we’ve got.’’
Long-time former Hawthorn recruiting boss Gary Buckenara this week told News Corp 14-gamer Jones had the attributes of a future A-grade player.
But he wondered if the Crows, who bid on but did not get academy prospects Tarryn Thomas (North Melbourne) and Will Kelly (Collingwood) in 2018, would regret not being more aggressive at the trade table that year, particularly after Rankine’s stunning three-goal debut last Saturday night.
Buckenara said Rankine filled obvious list voids on Adelaide’s list: pace and X-factor.
“Rankine certainly would’ve been a great player for them … and what they really need right now,” Buckenara said of the West Adelaide product, who made his SANFL debut at 16.
“When your team gets to a grand final, they obviously had a good year … and were happy to go with whoever they felt was the best player at (pick) nine, rather than be more aggressive and get one of those really good South Australian boys.
“You might have said we can afford to lose one of the Crouchs to bring in a player who was in your backyard that you know’s going to be a ripper.
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“That’s what list management is all about, making those brave decisions – sometimes they pay off, sometimes they don’t.
“Hindsight’s a wonderful thing.”
Buckenara had high hopes for several Crows youngsters, such as Jones, McAsey and Darcy Fogarty, but said their list had “too many C-graders”.
Going into this season, Buckenara rated Sloane as Adelaide’s only A-grader, Daniel Talia, Rory Laird and Tom Doedee in the B+ category, while Matt and Brad Crouch, Taylor Walker, Kyle Hartigan and Brodie Smith were considered as B- players.
The rest were either labelled C-graders or “developing”.
“I might be pretty harsh but that’s what you’ve got to be when you rate a list,” Buckenara said.
“Generally when a club rates their own list, they do it with rose-coloured glasses and tend to overrate it.
“There’s a lot of serviceable players but too many.
“Hopefully in time those under-21 players can all develop and go to another level.
“I think McAsey will be a good key-position player down the track, once he puts on a bit of size.”
Buckenara said Adelaide needed to attack the draft this year, when it could finally snare its first top-five selection and might have four picks inside the top 20, if restricted free agent Brad Crouch chose to leave at the end of the season.
Last week Adelaide list manager Justin Reid told News Corp after a 22-22 win/loss record in 2018-19, the club had sought to get more games into its younger players and target top-tier draft talent.
“That is a focus where you need to get 60-80 games into your core group as quick as you can, and from a draft point of view there is certainly a bit of work we’ve put into it over the last couple of years,” said Reid, who joined the club in 2015 and helped build the squad that finished top and reached the grand final in 2017.
“We have a strong draft hand this year, albeit we’re still unaware of list sizes, salary caps, even soft cap.
“We are certainly inside the top 20 and we’ve just got to keep adding to our high-end talent.”
Buckenara said the story of clubs’ draft and list-management decisions were told down the line.
“Generally when a club goes backwards you can find somewhere along the line where list management and recruiting’s played a part,” he said.
HUGE PRICE CROWS WOULD HAVE TO PAY FOR RANKINE
– Jon Ralph, Glenn McFarlane, Jay Clark
The moment Izak Rankine strutted his stuff at AFL level Adelaide fans were being told he was “gettable” for the Crows this year.
But of the Suns’ top three talents from the 2018 national draft, it is worth noting that Rankine signed long before Ben King and Jack Lukosius.
He didn’t play a game in his first year because of injuries but by July had already tacked on two seasons to his deal.
So while Adelaide will monitor him until his contract expires in two seasons, it would take multiple first-round picks to secure him even if he wanted to return home, which he has shown no inclination to do.
Adelaide has told player managers it is in for a five-year rebuild that is only really starting now, very aware of its list predicament.
The Crows will almost certainly go back to the draft in a big way with as many as five picks in the top 30.
They have asked around about a few exciting talents in the 21-24 year-old age bracket from rival lists, but are excited to back in a draft chock-full of different player types.
SA TRADE HOPES TAKE THEIR CHANCES
n this ongoing crazy season, Victoria’s top draft prospects are going to have to accept a lack of exposure while interstate kids are given the chance to shine.
Victorian prospects have been able to do almost nothing apart from some APS training for private school kids and Paul Connors’ recent Sorrento draft camp.
But over in Adelaide likely top-three pick Riley Thilthorpe kicked two goals in the SANFL seniors playing for West Adelaide.
He is a 200cm ruck-forward who ticks so many boxes for Adelaide and could succeed Taylor Walker.
Melbourne teenagers who have spent the past decade pushing for an AFL role but hadn’t proved they were draft-eligible until their last year will instead have to play state league next year to show their value.
TALKS COULD TRIGGER CONTRACT FRENZY
The AFLPA has declared itself ready to sit down and start talks that could allow the AFL to renegotiate the 2021-22 salary cap.
But even if that discussion takes some months the player union believes the league can unthaw the current contract freeze without a concrete CBA for coming years.
It would allow dozens of vulnerable players to potentially sign new deal that would protect them in the event of serious injuries that otherwise might end their careers.
Some clubs said this week they would be in no position to sign contracts given they don’t know what the salary cap will be or what list size cuts will land on.
But the last time the AFL and PA negotiated a new collective bargaining agreement it took until June 2017 – nearly eight months after the last CBA expired – to broker a new deal.
Clubs just signed contracts with a CBA clause and in the end players with those clauses got a 20 per cent pay rise automatically.
This time around it will likely be a cut, although no one really knows what it means for players like Brodie Grundy, who have recently agreed to long-term deals.
Two of the AFL’s stars in Jeremy Cameron and Darcy Moore both spoke this week about getting contracts done quickly with their existing clubs when the freeze ended.
But there is a long list of players, who would normally have re-signed at this point of the season, who might only be one long-term injury away from their careers ending.
At Carlton the irrepressible Levi Casboult is in that boat, as are Marc Murphy, Matthew Kreuzer and Kade Simpson.
Collingwood has Jordan Roughead and Brody Mihocek clamouring for new deals, Geelong has Zach Tuohy and Tom Hawkins.
For North Melbourne Ben Brown’s price would seem to drop by the week, but in reality he has kicked 61, 63 and 64 goals in the past three years and is in the first form slump of his career.
WA CLUBS WILL ASK ABOUT UNLUCKY CAT
Jordan Clark’s frustrating second season went from bad to worse on Thursday night when he suffered a serious shoulder injury.
Rival clubs were stunned Clark had been forced to wait until Round 7 before returning to the Cats’ senior side.
A handful of clubs wondered if the native West Australian might be an outside trade chance at the end of the season.
They had begun sniffing around Clark before he got back into the team, with West Coast an interested party. The Eagles are looking to shore up an ageing defence in the coming years.
The 19-year-old is so highly regarded at Geelong that the Cats locked him into a deal until the end of 2022 when he was only weeks into his 2019 debut year, highlighting his talent and his upside.
Clark played 18 games for the Cats last year, but suffered an elbow injury at training late in the season.
But it is understood Clark would be exceptionally hard to prise out of GMHBA Stadium, with the Cats seeing him as a future leader.
OVERLOOKED DOCKER ON TRADE RADAR
Connor Blakely’s omission from the Fremantle senior team in the first part of the AFL season staggered a handful of possible suitors.
The 24-year-old fell out of favour with the Dockers, with assistant coach David Hale saying recently he had been asked to work on the defensive side of his game.
The midfielder was an emergency for much of the first part of the season. He has been named in the extended Dockers’ squad for this weekend’s Western Derby.
Blakely signed a three-year contract extension with the Dockers last July, locking him in until the end of the 2022 season.
He will be closely monitored throughout the rest of the season to see where he sits in new coach Justin Longmuir’s future plans.
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NEW ‘SUPER DRAFT” TOPS 2001
The 2001 “super draft” is known as the draft that started with Luke Hodge, Chris Judd and Luke Ball but also featured Jimmy Bartel, Gary Ablett, Dane Swan, Sam Mitchell, Steve Johnson and Nick Dal Santo.
But the top 10 of the 2018 national draft looks like it might be even more potent for games played.
Five of the top 10 in the 2001 national draft played more than 200 games.
In order, Hodge played 346, Ball 223, Judd 279, Graham Polak 111, Xavier Clarke 106, Ash Sampi 78, David Hale 237, Bartel 305, Luke Molan none and Sam Power 123.
The 2018 super draft features Sam Walsh, Jack Lukosius, Max King, Connor Rozee, Ben King, Bailey Smith, Tarryn Thomas, Chayce Jones and Nick Blakey.
Which one of them would you bet against getting to 200 games if injuries do not befall them?
And with Zak Butters, Isaac Quaynor, Jordan Clark, Sam Sturt, Zavier Duursma, Will Kelly, Rhylee West and Will Hamill all in the top 30 of that draft, its depth is just as good as its top-end talent.
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Originally published as Money Ball: How Crows let Matt Rowell get away, the latest trade and contract news, plus is Izak Rankine gettable for Adelaide?