Football analyst Mick McGuane names his final top-eight for the ever-changing 2020 season
We’re more than a third of the way through this shortened 2020 season and some big changes are afoot. With this in mind, MICK McGUANE names his final top-8, with some genuine surprises.
Collingwood
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We’re more than a third of the way through this shortened 2020 season and while only one game separates second from 13th on the ladder, some trends are becoming clear.
What is also clear is the advantage the West Australian, South Australian and Queensland teams are going to have in the back half of the season, with home games most likely in front of bumper crowds.
With all that in mind, here’s my predicted top-eight at season’s end — and why.
1. PORT ADELAIDE
The Power sit atop of the ladder and I think that’s where they will finish the season.
Port has the highest percentage in the competition, a healthy list and a coach in Ken Hinkley who makes the tough decisions — including dropping Tom Rockliff — to keep a winning side on edge.
The Power are a strong territory team, ranking first for time in forward half and inside-50 differential.
While one-on-one their defence concerns me a little, the backline does do a good job of neutralising contests and, when they win it back, Port’s coast-to-coast ball movement is the best around.
Goalkicking accuracy — at just 45 per cent — needs to be improved.
But to have gone 4-1 in Queensland is exceptional and bodes well ahead of a string of games back home.
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2. COLLINGWOOD
In what is shaping as a tight competition, percentage is going to play a big part at season’s end and the Magpies have the second-best in the competition.
Defensively the Magpies are ranked No. 1 for points against and opposition scores from inside-50s.
Their blitz starts have been the best of any team, but they need to better continue that attacking dare and flair in the other three quarters.
Collingwood plays a strong territory brand, but improvement also lies in making more of Brodie Grundy’s ruck dominance, better connecting with the forward line and converting more shots at goal.
Is Mason Cox the right fit? Could Darcy Moore move forward? Or is a fit Ben Reid the answer?
Finding the right key-forward target is also key.
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3. BRISBANE
The Lions are third on the ladder and, after this week, might not have to leave Queensland for the rest of the season.
They are a team that loves the fight and have won the contested possession count by nine a game on average.
The Lions are also a get-it-forward, no fuss side that has won the inside-50 count by an average of 11 a game.
That means Eric Hipwood, Charlie Cameron, Dan McStay and Cam Rayner are getting ample looks to hit the scoreboard.
Brisbane’s turnover game is in good shape, but its team defence needs tightening and its goalkicking accuracy must lift from 41 per cent (Ranked 18th).
4. GEELONG
I’ve got the Cats top-four largely due to their scoring profile.
They rank No. 1 for points for and when they play at speed and with a pure football mentality they are as good as any team.
Geelong’s game is built on contest — ranking second for contested possession differential — and even with the Cats’ deficiencies in the ruck they still rank second for clearances.
Joel Selwood, Patrick Dangerfield, Tom Hawkins and Gary Ablett all have the ability to change games and the Cats are the fourth-best side at scoring once inside-50 given their class in attack.
Geelong’s turnover game is strong and its team defence rock solid.
The challenge is winning games on the road away from the comforts of GMHBA Stadium.
5. WEST COAST
The Eagles won their last two games in Queensland to change the momentum of their season drastically.
West Coast has won the clearance count by an average of six a game but their scores from stoppages could be improved, ranked 16th.
The delivery to Jack Darling, Josh Kennedy, Jamie Cripps and Oscar Allen needs to be tidied up, as does their defensive structure because defending opposition ball movement is a massive concern.
They will get a big advantage from this week onwards, though, playing at Optus Stadium where they have won 16 of their past 20 games.
Fifth might be too low, but their slow start makes top-four a challenge.
6. RICHMOND
Banking wins like last week against Sydney are really important.
They are undermanned now — missing Trent Cotchin, David Astbury, Toby Nankervis, Dion Prestia, Bachar Houli and Shane Edwards — but write Richmond off at your peril.
When they’re on, they are still a force.
The Tigers’ defence has held firm.
They concede scores from just 38 per cent of opposition inside-50s (ranked second) and rank fourth for points against.
They are still a good territory team, ranking fourth for time in forward half differential, and their turnover game is strong.
But Richmond’s execution going inside-50 needs to be improved and they have to become an anywhere, anytime team with no run home at the MCG this year.
7. GWS GIANTS
I’ve got the Giants in the top-eight, but I’m imploring Leon Cameron to change their game style.
To play finals, they have to change now.
Cameron has lost sight of how the Giants play best and the slow kick-mark tempo game they are playing at the moment is unsustainable.
He needs to bring back the fast-break play and instinct game for the Giants to rise.
Right now they are highly efficient going forward, ranking No. 1 for scores once inside-50.
But they haven’t won an inside-50 count this year and are not generating forward-half turnovers.
Josh Kelly and Lachie Whitfield are struggling because their natural instinct is being challenged due to the stop-start style and Jeremey Cameron and Toby Greene are damaging forwards who aren’t seeing enough of the ball come to them.
8. ESSENDON
It’s hard not to squeeze the Bombers into the top-eight, especially given they have a game up their sleeve.
Their defence has tightened, ranked third for opposition scores per inside-50 and points against this season.
Defence first, attack second is keeping them in a lot of games.
Andrew Phillips has been impressive and the Bombers are outscoring their opposition by four points a game from stoppages.
But to win a final they have to improve their territory game.
They rank 13th for time in forward half differential and 14th for inside-50 differential.
All of the last 10 premiers have been top-six in both stats.
It’s a big ‘if’, but if Joe Daniher can get back for the back end of the season it would be massive.
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CARLTON
As exciting as the Blues can be with the instinctive front-half game they’re playing on the back of improvement around stoppages, I’ve got some concerns around their defence.
Carlton sits eighth on the ladder at the moment but they’re still a little leaky, conceding 68.5 points a game (ranked 17th).
If you keep leaking 11 or 12 goals a game in a small-margin season, I’m not sure you can rely on outscoring some of the better opposition sides by significant margins to win games of football.
The other issue is their inconsistencies when the game is up for grabs in the first quarter.
The Blues are 3-3 from first quarters this season, but have had some horror starts against Richmond, Melbourne and St Kilda.
Until they get that right, I’m not convinced.
You can’t give up three or four goal head starts against the better teams and expect to win.
The major positive this season has been the forward-half game, Carlton ranking fifth for time in forward half differential, which has been surprising.
ST KILDA
My biggest concern about the Saints is how they will go away from the fast track of Marvel Stadium for the rest of the season?
Since Round 16 last season, the Saints have gone 6-1 at Marvel Stadium but are 0-7 away from the Docklands venue.
They won’t be back there this year, so will need to learn to adapt.
St Kilda is a highly-efficient team from scoring once inside-50 (ranked third) but they’re not a strong territory side when it comes to inside-50 differential (ranked 11th) and until that marries up, I’m not convinced it’s a sustainable style.
Unlike the good teams, the Saints are not generating forward-half intercept possessions, so as much as everyone talks about their forward-pressure when they’re playing their best, their front-half game isn’t where it should be.
The room for improvement lies in the midfielders — Seb Ross, Jack Steele, Jade Gresham, Zak Jones, Brad Hill.
They’re rating average, below average or poor for clearances, so I’d be putting the acid on that group.
Without them winning first possession or clearing the ball from stoppage situations, they’re not going to improve that territory game that they need and give their forwards an opportunity to hit the scoreboard even more than what they are.
Originally published as Football analyst Mick McGuane names his final top-eight for the ever-changing 2020 season