SuperCoach Plus: 11 things you need to know for round 3 of the 2023 AFL season

This week it’s all about the numbers in KFC SuperCoach. See the Break Evens, price projections and captaincy tips you need to know for round 3.

This is the week you need SuperCoach Plus more than ever.

Player prices will start to change for the first time after round 3 and SuperCoach Plus contains the key info you need to make your trade and selection decisions.

Break Evens – the score a player needs to maintain their current price – plus score and price projections are available for every player.

You can also access the Optimise and Trade Assist buttons, an updated injury list and lots more. And SuperCoach Plus subscribers can see live KFC SuperCoach scores for every AFL game in the 2023 season.

And you get exclusive weekly analysis articles just like this one!

Every KFC SuperCoach player has access to SuperCoach Plus on a free trial for the opening

two rounds so make sure you check out all the great features.

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GOING UP

Click on ‘players’ and choose ‘BREAK EVEN’ from the drop-down menu to see the most important numbers in KFC SuperCoach this week. North Melbourne young gun Harry Sheezel has the lowest Break Even (BE) in the competition of -116, which means if he scores anything his price will go up next week. Based on a predicted score of 67 against Hawthorn, he is forecast to jump $83,000 in value. These are the players you need in your team! Kade Chandler has a BE of -94 and is projected to rise in value by $59,000 after his third game, while Conor McKenna (BE -76, projected $62k price rise), Reuben Ginbey (BE -64, +$52k), Charlie Constable (BE -59, +$36k) and Will Ashcroft (BE -45, +$45k) will all be a lot more expensive next week.

Harry Sheezel is a must-have in KFC SuperCoach. Picture: Daniel Carson/AFL Photos via Getty Images

MID-PRICE MONEY TRAINS

Rookies have the lowest Break Evens because they are starting from a low price, but there are some more expensive players who are also set for a huge price bump. Essendon recruit Will Setterfield is top of this list after scoring 99 and 147 in the first two rounds. Priced at $348,200 to start the year, Setterfield has a BE of -49 and if he scores 89 points against St Kilda, his value will increase by $62,500 after round 3. Some other mid-pricers with low BEs include Dane Rampe (BE -45, +$62k), Jack Ziebell (BE -23, +$46k), Josh Rachele (BE -23, +$39k), James Worpel (BE -21, +$42k) and Jacob Hopper (BE 2, +$35k – if he overcomes a knee injury to play on Friday night. We can also add a surprising name to this list – Ben Brown ($339,100 FWD) has scored 111 and 98 in the first two rounds to enter round 3 with a BE of -17.

GOING DOWN

High Break Evens are almost as important as low ones when planning your trades – ideally you want to jump off players about to lose value and jump on the players going up, although you can cop a price drop from a premium if you still think they will be one of the top scorers in their line by the end of the season. That exception certainly applies to Rory Laird, who has a BE of 202 (third-highest in the comp behind injured guns Tom Stewart and Max Gawn) and is projected to drop $41k in value next week. But coming off a score of 147 it would be a brave SuperCoacher to trade him out. There are some tougher calls on Lachie Neale (BE 188, -$32k), Sean Darcy (BE 182, -$43k), Bailey Dale (BE 179, -$40k), Jack Macrae (BE 169, -$23k) and Sam Docherty (BE 161, -$27k).

Esava Ratugolea is playing well but not scoring many KFC SuperCoach points.

SLOW BURNS

Not every rookie will rocket up in value, and some cheapies are still performing an important role by sitting on the bench and slowly increasing in value. Players like Lachie Cowan (BE -23, +$19k) provide bench cover and come into play when we want to make trades during the middle part of the season. However, it is possible to burn too slowly. Campbell Chesser features in more than 52 per cent of KFC SuperCoach teams and has posted scores of 20 and 27 in the first two rounds. His projected score of 23 this week would result in a $200 price drop – so he’s a rookie you could move on this week, especially if you don’t have Chandler or Chesser’s Eagles teammate Noah Long (BE -59) in your team. Esava Ratugolea has a BE of 13 and should go up in price, but based on SuperCoach Plus projections he will top out at about $215k in round 9 – an overall price gain of just $41k.

RUCK AND ROLE

A lot of time over summer was spent agonising over what to do in the ruck, and second-guessing how ruck partnerships would work at several clubs. With two rounds of data, we can make some more concrete assessments. A pre-season hamstring scare put some off selecting Darcy Cameron, but he has starred in the opening two rounds, spending 84 per cent of his time on ground in the ruck for Collingwood – resulting in scores of 103 and 137 KFC SuperCoach points. He has a BE of 24 and is projected to add $40k to his price tag after facing Richmond, making him an obvious choice if you have to trade Max Gawn. Luke Jackson’s arrival at Fremantle was also a close watch. In round 1 Darcy attended 61 ruck contests to Jackson’s 17, but in round 2 there was a much more even split, with Darcy leading 49-35.

Sean Darcy had a stinker against the Kangaroos. Picture: Will Russell/AFL Photos via Getty Images

DARCY DOWN

Darcy owners would have been horrified when they checked the live KFC SuperCoach scores (thanks to SuperCoach Plus!) at halftime and saw the big man on -4. He improved in the second half to finish on 41 points, but six of Darcy’s first 10 acts of the match resulted in negative SuperCoach points, and he lost a total of 20 points across the game. He spent 70 per cent of game time in the ruck, down from 90 per cent in round 1 but still enough to post a much better score. He had just six disposals and a hitout to advantage rate of just 10 per cent. But if you’re thinking of trading out Darcy this week, it might pay to look at the fixture first. The Dockers face West Coast on Sunday and the Eagles are using back-up big men to cover for injured ruck star Nic Naitanui.

Sean Darcy in his last two games vs Eagles:

150
155

🔫#SuperCoach

— Fantasy Freako (@FantasyFreako) March 27, 2023

FLANDERS FAIL

One player who looms as a must-trade ahead of round 3 is Sam Flanders. After attending 14 centre bounces in round 1 he was at just three in round 2, and without a consistent midfield role it seems his KFC SuperCoach scoring will always be frustrating. Flanders managed only 11 disposals against Essendon last weekend and just four of those came after halftime, when he scored just 11 KFC SuperCoach points. With a BE of 35 Flanders definitely won’t be the cash cow many were hoping – best to cut your losses now and trade him to a rookie about to rise in value.

Sam Flanders hasn’t lived up to the pre-season hype. Picture: Chris Hyde/Getty Images via AFL Photos

MAGNET MAN

Luke Beveridge was up to his old tricks in round 2, spinning the magnets as he searches for a winning formula at the Bulldogs. After playing in defence in round 1, Caleb Daniel spent 85 per cent of game time in the midfield and 15 per cent forward against St Kilda. Jack Macrae was pushed out of the centre square, attending 23 per cent fewer centre bounces and playing 33 per cent of game time forward. Bailey Smith’s CBAs also dropped from 55 per cent to 32 per cent, while Marcus Bontempelli jumped from 69 per cent to 77 per cent, and Tom Liberatore went from 72 per cent to 91 per cent CBAs.

HAWK TALK

Hawthorn’s centre square mix was something of an unknown entering the season, and it seems Sam Mitchell is still figuring out his best onball combination. Rookie Cam Mackenzie attended 52 per cent of CBAs in round 1 and posted an excellent score of 93 KFC SuperCoach points. He found the going a lot tougher against Sydney last weekend, scoring just 52 from 12 disposals. That can be attributed at least in part to his CBA percentage taking a big hit, dropping from 52 per cent to just 25 per cent, with Conor Nash (26 per cent to 46 per cent) the main beneficiary. James Worpel also dropped from 77 per cent to 54 per cent, but it didn’t hurt his KFC SuperCoach output.

Cam Mackenzie played mostly outside the centre square in round 2. Picture: Steve Bell/Getty Images

CAPTAINS CORNER

Reliable names like Rory Laird (147), Clayton Oliver (135) and Marcus Bontempelli (125) proved smart captain choices in round 2, and they will be high on the list of candidates again in round 3. Laird averages 117 in his past three games against Port Adelaide, Oliver averages 129 in his past three against Sydney (with a low of 125 in that time) and Bontempelli averages 121 in his past three against the Lions. Looking at other options, Luke Davies-Uniacke is the form player in the competition and could go big again against Hawthorn; he averages 107 in his past three against the Hawks but has gone to a new level this season. Connor Rozee scored 162 against Adelaide in round 23 last year and if you want to have a crack at an early VC Tim English has the highest projected round 3 score of 143. And who knows what Josh Dunkley could produce in his first game against his old team.

DAICOS OFF THE LEASH

What tag? Nick Daicos has started the season in a blaze of glory, blowing Port Adelaide’s proven ability to restrict opposition half-backs out of the water in round 2 to post 149 KFC SuperCoach points. He’s the No.1 defender in KFC SuperCoach after two rounds, and No.4 overall, with an average of 139 (and a Break Even of just seven, making him a prime trade target for non-owners). If you don’t have him, Friday night’s clash against Richmond could be hard to watch. Historically, Damien Hardwick has never tagged, or worried too much about opposition running defenders racking up big KFC SuperCoach numbers. Last season, Adam Saad scored 138 and 121 against the Tigers, Sam Docherty scored 143 and 127, Isaac Cumming helped himself to 127, Luke Ryan had 128, Hayden Young 138 and Tom Stewart 160.

Originally published as SuperCoach Plus: 11 things you need to know for round 3 of the 2023 AFL season