SuperCoach round 3 trade guide: Jack Bowes, cash cows and the crucial calls ahead of price changes
Max Gawn is injured, Tim English is on fire and a Magpie could be the ruck bargain of the year. Champion Data Fantasy Freako helps sort it all out plus round 3 trade tips.
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After the despair of owning Tom Stewart in round 1 SuperCoaches were hit even harder last week as Max Gawn injured his knee just five minutes into Melbourne’s clash against the Lions. More than 22,000 SuperCoaches must now use a precious trade to move him out.
As the most expensive ruckman in the game finding a replacement won’t be hard, the only question is – where do you go?
The safe play would be just to go down to Jarrod Witts, who collected 140 and 108 points across his first two games. His hitouts-to-advantage per game are basically the same as last year, however his hitout-to-advantage rate has fallen from a career-high 34.2 per cent to 28.7 per cent, which is the third-worst of the top-15 ranked rucks in the game. The sample size is just two games, so there’s not much to be concerned about there.
Tim English is the No.1 ranked ruck in the game after scoring 134 and 139 in that order. His hitout-to-advantage rate has gone in the opposite direction – improving from 31.4 per cent to a career-high 37.5 per cent. English also leads the league for disposals and uncontested possessions by rucks and is just as good an option as Witts – with the only caveat being his durability.
Sean Darcy would have been in the discussion after his round 1 performance, but his stocks took a hit in round 2. But, in saying that, he has scored 150 and 155 points respectively in his past two games against the Eagles. With Nic Naitanui remaining sidelined, another huge score could be on the cards for Darcy after Matt Flynn helped himself to 132 points last week.
If you’re looking for value then there is no one better than Darcy Cameron. He finished with a career-high 16 contested possessions and 137 points on the weekend, also applying five tackles. His hitout win rate is the best of his career and his hitout-to-advantage rate has gone from 27.4 per cent to 29.3 per cent. As a DPP, he ticks a lot of boxes and would net you $156,200 should you make the switch from Gawn.
If you’re the risky type and are looking for the ultimate POD then Toby Nankervis could be an option. With a KFC SuperCoach ownership of just 2582 he has racked up 110-plus points in both games this year. He is averaging a career-high 37 hitouts and his hitout-to-advantage rate of 29.7 per cent is almost identical to last year.
Gawn’s teammate Brodie Grundy should also be in the mix, but his fantasy worth won’t be the same once Gawn eventually returns. In saying that, his hitout-to-advantage numbers are woeful this year – recording a career-low rate of just 15.8 per cent, which is almost half his career average. On the positive side, Grundy averages 117 from eight career games against Sydney – his most against any AFL opponent.
Below are the leading ruckmen based on hitout-to-advantage rate after two rounds:
FREAKO’S ROOKIE WATCH
Harry Sheezel continues to fly the flag for the rookie class of 2023, racking up another 114 points in round 2. In fact, he’s matching it with the big boys – ranking in the top-10 in the AFL for marks, effective kicks, and rebound 50s. He also ranks fourth overall for uncontested possessions behind Nick Daicos, Zach Merrett, and Luke Ryan.
Sheezel has the lowest Break Even of any player at -116 and you can expect a huge price rise after his next match.
Kade Chandler (-94 BE) is next in line, and he looks to have cemented his place in the Demons side – ranking second at the club for tackles inside 50, equal-third for disposals, and fourth for scoreboard impact. He has kicked one goal in each match and is hitting the target by foot 74 per cent of the time which is a solid return.
Another mature-age player, Conor McKenna, is close to essential at his price, and he has fitted in seamlessly into Brisbane’s backline. He ranks in the top 10 at the club for metres gained and also boasts the best disposal retention rate of that group. His kicking is elite – recording a kicking efficiency of 83 per cent – and he is also intercepting, which is a huge bonus for KFC SuperCoach scoring.
Elsewhere, Will Setterfield, who doesn’t fit in the rookie bracket, needs to be mentioned purely based on Break Even alone. He has made a blistering start to his career as a Bomber and enters round 3 with a BE of -49. Moving Jacob Hopper, who is under an injury cloud, to Setterfield is a tactic worth considering as Setterfield will boom in price over the coming weeks.
In terms of debutants, Arthur Jones has already been named to play his first match this week. He averaged 49 points in the VFL last year and capped the year off with a season-high 83 points.
Best of luck for round 3 and, as always – trade wisely!
Trade guide: SuperCoach studs you need before price changes
– Tim Michell, Dan Batten, Al Paton
Welcome to the biggest week of the KFC SuperCoach AFL season.
Prices will change for players who feature in their third game of the year next weekend, putting a premium on having the right cash cows and mid-price money makers in your team this week before prices move.
There’s also the issue of premiums and whether to jump off before a price crash if they have made a slow start to the season.
KFC SuperCoaches now have two weeks of data to assess and make the crucial trade calls which will set up their season.
Many coaches will use one of their five trade boosts this round, making sure they don’t miss out on getting the topscoring cheapies into their team before it’s too late.
It’s a strategy which paid off for 2022 winner JP Haigh, who used three trades in every week from rounds 3-5 to set up his path to glory.
Read on to see our verdicts on the must-have players ahead of price changes and analysis on round 2 star Jack Bowes.
ROUND 3 TRADE TARGETS
Nick Daicos (Collingwood) $502,500 DEF | Average: 139 | Break Even: 7
Port Adelaide’s tag went about as well as Tim Michell trading Rory Laird and Jacob Hopper after one round. As the kids would say, the new Brownlow Medal favourite is just different gravy. Daicos monstered the Power and made a mockery of their plan to quell his influence, posting the second biggest KFC SuperCoach score of his career – 149. He’s a legitimate contender for vice-captaincy or captaincy duties and if you were put off by Finn Maginess’s successful tag in pre-season, this is the week to right that wrong and grab him. Daicos could soon be $600k and might be in the conversation to be the top KFC SuperCoach defender of 2023, let alone top six. A Friday night clash with Richmond awaits and the Tigers are renowned for leaking points to halfbacks. VC anyone?
Will Setterfield (Essendon) $348,200 MID | Average: 126 | BE: -49
After dropping a career-high KFC SuperCoach score against Gold Coast, Setterfield has become the must-have mid-price buy ahead of price changes. His value is set to soar in coming weeks to the point where he could be a straight swap to a fallen premium mid-season. Then again, maybe Setterfield the Bomber is a KFC SuperCoach premium. He’s finally being used in the inside midfield role he plays his best football in, and it’s little wonder two of the best games of his career have been the result. Setterfield had 13 contested possessions against the Suns, spending time manned up against Gold Coast star Touk Miller. He laid nine tackles and capped his performance with a goal, finishing with 147 KFC SuperCoach points. It’s now or never and even if you’re partnering him with Jacob Hopper, you don’t want to miss out. His scoring and money-making will just be too good. Hawk James Worpel ($309,300 MID) is another player to consider after scoring 99 and 97 in the first two rounds. He will make money if he continues to score ike that but few midfielders will have room for three mid-pricers.
Luke Davies-Uniacke (North Melbourne) $557,400 MID | Average: 149 | BE: 18
Has KFC SuperCoach’s newest uber premium midfielder arrived? There was a bit of peak Chris Judd about the way LDU exploded from stoppage in another commanding performance against Fremantle. After averaging 110 in the run home last year, Davies-Uniacke has started this season was scores of 143 and 155. Anything similar against Hawthorn in round 2 will cause his price to rocket above $600k – although Finn Maginess could be waiting. Including the last two rounds of 2022, LDU has scored 140+ in three of his last four games. This looks to be your last chance to get a possible season keeper for less than $550k. The only issue will be working out where the cash comes from. Would you sacrifice a slow-starting premium to make it happen?
Jack Ziebell (North Melbourne) $356,400 FWD | Average: 112.5 | BE: -23
Ziebell is partying like it’s 2021 – and we’re not talking QR code entry and elbow bumps. The Roos veteran is loving life back in defence, pumping out scores of 102 and 123 to start the season. Ziebell had 26 disposals (22 kicks) at 96 per cent in round 1 against West Coast and 26 disposals at 89 per cent on Saturday against Fremantle. In fact, 44 of his 52 disposals to date have been kicks, which attract the greatest KFC SuperCoach points. Ziebell has also registered 12 kick-ins in the opening two rounds, playing on from all 12 to further help his scoring. Stata guru Brice Mitchell has projected Ziebell’s price could be above $500k within the next month. Don’t stress about what impact Aaron Hall’s eventual return might have. Why would Clarko mess with his new matchwinning Ziebell and Sheezel combination? Ziebell headlines the mid-price targets this week and only costs about $45k more than Nat Fyfe.
Darcy Cameron $465,900 RUC-FWD | Average: 120 | BE: 24
The big Magpie looms as the most popular Max Gawn replacement after scores of 103 and 137 to start the season. Take this example. You could trade Gawn to Cameron, bank $157k and almost have enough money to trade Esava Ratugolea to Ziebell. Now there’s food for thought. There were fears Cameron could end up in a 50-50 ruck share with Mason Cox but he has attended 127 ruck contests to Cox’s 54 in the first two rounds. His DPP status gives him an edge over other ruck options as you can swing him forward and make room for Tim English or a bottomed-out Gawn later in the season.
Kade Chandler (Melbourne) $123,900 FWD | Average: 82 | BE -94
Chandler’s price is set to skyrocket (projected $59,000 rise) after he was able to back up his impressive round 1 score with 12 disposals, a goal and 73 KFC SuperCoach in a loss. The 23-year-old has at least another week to prove himself with Kysaiah Pickett missing round 3 with suspension, but the crafty Demons forward should hold his spot even when Pickett returns with this sort of form. Trading an underperforming forward rookie like Esava Ratugolea to Chandler looks a shrewd move. Other rookies with low Break Evens heading into round 3 include Conor McKenna (-67), Reuben Ginbey (-64), Noah Long (-59), Charlie Constable (-53) and Darcy Wilmot (-49).
Harry Sheezel (North Melbourne) $198,300 FWD | Average: 114 | BE: -116
Talk about consistent. Sheezel backed up his amazing 114 points in round 1 with another 114 against the Dockers, starring again in a very SuperCoach-friendly role across half-back. Thousands of KFC SuperCoaches traded in the No.3 draft pick last week but if you still don’t have him, make sure you use one of your trades this week to bring him in. He’s set to make a stack of cash, can score premium numbers on field and as an added bonus is almost certain to be awarded dual-position status after round 5, when we can swing him back to strengthen our defences. Sheezel is projected to add $83,000 to his price tag next week and that’s with a predicted score of 67 against Hawthorn – based on the first two rounds, that could be serious unders!
JACK BOWES ANALYSIS: WAIT A WEEK OR JUMP ON NOW?
So much for steak knives.
Jack Bowes has left KFC SuperCoaches with plenty to ponder after posting 108 points in his first game for Geelong on Thursday.
Bowes started made an incredible start to life in the blue and white hoops, racing to fifty points by quarter-time as he took three first-term kick-ins and went at 100 per cent from seven disposals.
The return of Zach Tuohy, who copped a knock early in the match, caused Bowes to be shuffled further up the field in the second and third terms where he was less effective.
He managed five disposals in the second term and one in the third — which was a turnover.
But, just as the 400 or so coaches who traded Liam Jones to Bowes this week wondered if they had celebrated too early, he rallied in the last quarter.
Bowes had seven disposals, four contested possessions, three clearances and laid three tackles in the term, a promising sign which showed he does not necessarily need kick-in duties to score well.
He scored 87 of his 108 points in the first and last quarters.
The 25-year-old won praise from coach Chris Scott post-match and would have scored in excess of 120 KFC SuperCoach points had he not missed a shot at goal 20 minutes into the last quarter.
“I was rapt with Jack Bowes’ first game for the club,” Scott said.
“He missed a goal late, but he was outstanding for us early sort of playing as a high back.
“Really liked his game.”
Scott did reveal Mitch Duncan would return from injury “in the next couple of weeks”, a possible red flag for those considering Bowes.
The question now for KFC SuperCoaches – is he a must-have?
It will largely depend on Liam Jones’ break even and whether Bowes can back up his ton against his former side Gold Coast next round.
No doubt the return of Tom Stewart in another 3-4 weeks will have some impact on Bowes, but his efforts in the last quarter against the Blues showed he isn’t a one-trick pony.
Bowes’ best season average is 84 and he has averaged more than 75 three times in his last four full seasons.
The obvious knock on him was his job security — or lackthereof — but that shouldn’t be an issue after the way Bowes performed against the Blues.
He only missed round 1 due to a calf issue and proved he can be a big part of Geelong’s premiership defence against the Blues.
If you’ve got an underperforming mid-pricer or a premium who is set to lose value after their third game, Bowes looms as the perfect escape plan.
But as always in KFC SuperCoach, it pays to have a second look, and coaches would be wise to wait until round 4 before jumping on if possible.
That is unless one of your players is about to experience a price crash after round 3, which would force your hand to go early and take a risk on Bowes after one game.
At $277k, it might not turn out to be that risky anyway.
TIM MICHELL’S VERDICT: Wait a week. Great signs against the Blues, but the last time Bowes scored a ton he dropped a 45 the next week. If Liam Jones doesn’t show enough this round to suggest he’s a money maker, I could understand trading him to Bowes based on only one game. But if you’re thinking about trading a premium defender to Bowes to avoid a price drop after round 3, it might be wiser to just cop one decrease to get a second look at Bowes. You’ll still be making good money on the downgrade anyway.
DAN BATTEN’S VERDICT: Was a bit like the Crows on the weekend: awesome for two quarters, and nowhere for the other half. If we see his role in defence (with kick-ins) and through the midfield continue, he will be an absolute bargain at his price.
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Originally published as SuperCoach round 3 trade guide: Jack Bowes, cash cows and the crucial calls ahead of price changes
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