KFC SuperCoach Round 7 trade guide: Best rookies and bargain-priced stars
The KFC SuperCoach world is going crazy for Izak Rankine, but this week’s other trade is a lot trickier — especially if you have Nat Fyfe. Luckily there are some stars available at bargain prices.
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This is your chance to make ground on the KFC SuperCoach pack.
While other coaches target Sam Simpson, Izak Rankine and Will Day, those who trade for fallen premiums ahead of Round 7 could be rewarded with a rankings spike.
There’s no set formula when it comes to determining which players whose value has plummeted can turn their form around.
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There’s a case to be made for Shannon Hurn, Elliot Yeo and Tim Kelly, who return to the home comforts of Western Australia this round.
Others such as Patrick Cripps, Jack Macrae and Marcus Bontempelli are underpriced considering their potential output.
While Max Gawn and Lachie Neale are the ultimate target for many coaches, the expensive pair are outside the spare change most teams possess.
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In a season where every round counts, this is a perfect opportunity to start your rankings climb while others are thinking long-term.
It might seem fraught to overlook rookies who scored well in their first game of the season, but those who took the punt on Richmond’s Jake Aarts can tell you a positive first game does not always translate to sustainable scoring.
Don’t forget Simpson, Rankine, Day or even Adelaide’s Andrew McPherson, but it’s far too simple to hone your focus on a double downgrade without considering the benefits an alternate approach could have for your team.
FYFE HAMSTRING ISSUES A CONCERN FOR SUPERCOACHES
More than 40,000 KFC SuperCoaches have a huge call to make on whether to trade Nat Fyfe after he was ruled out of Sunday’s western derby.
Fyfe staged a remarkable recovery to return after missing only one game against St Kilda, but spent significant time in the forward line.
His KFC SuperCoach score of 84 caused his price to fall by $31,500 and there‘s more pain for SuperCoaches to come this weekend.
Fremantle football manager Peter Bell said scans this week revealed Fyfe had suffered a strain in his right hamstring.
“The scan indicated that he has a small strain to his right hamstring in a different area to the previous one, so unfortunately he will miss this week and potentially a few more games after that,” Bell said.
“Nat will get stuck into his rehabilitation and, hopefully, we’ll see him in a few weeks.”
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TOP TARGETS
Patrick Cripps $551,800 BE: 150 MID 2020 average: 100.8
If you’re in the minority of coaches who don’t have Carlton co-captain Cripps, you’ll snag one of the bargains of the year in a few weeks. Cripps hurt his shoulder and was hampered throughout the Blues’ win over Western Bulldogs, labouring to 56 KFC SuperCoach points — his lowest score since Round 11, 2018. He’s projected to drop by about $20,000 again after Round 7.
Worth the risk? You’d be mad not to consider him for close to $500,000 after Round 7. Cripps will only be this cheap due to scoring 56 against Western Bulldogs on Sunday. Four of his scores were 112 or better before then.
Round 6 #supercoach Price Projection* - Patrick Cripps
— Brice Mitchell (@bricemitchell) July 12, 2020
Start Price $636k
2019Av 117
R6Price $594k
2020Scores 112/117/123/81/116
R6BE 148
R6Score 56
R6:$594k->$552k ($-42k) NewBE 150
ProjScore 100
R7:$552k->$530k ($-23k) NewBE 154
R8:$530k->$505k ($-24k) NewBE 97
*approx https://t.co/76rIi1nepE
Lachie Whitfield $455,200 BE: 62 FWD-MID 2020 average: 83.8
Whitfield was the top defender last year but was reclassified as a FWD-MID this season. He was expected to be one of the top forwards of the year and started at $604,100. His price dropped to $441,200 before Round 6, largely due to being concussed on eight points in Round 3 against Western Bulldogs. His other five scores are 85-111 which would have him in the mix to be a top-six forward. Remove that eight and his average has been 99. His kicking efficiency has been down but he went at 80 per cent against Port Adelaide on Sunday.
Worth the risk? Absolutely. Players of his ilk don’t come at this price often. He’s had at least 24 disposals in his past three matches.
Elliot Yeo $481,200 BE: 55 MID 2020 average: 87.2
Yeo has overcome an indifferent start to the campaign — much like West Coast — and returned to form in the past two rounds. Two scores under 60 to Round 6 are concerning, but he’s a consistent point scorer at his best. Last season, when he averaged 107.6, he scored 12 tons and only had two scores below 80. Is Tim Kelly a better option though for $18,800 more?
Worth the risk? Yes. 121 and 105 in his past two games and is heading back to Optus Stadium where he traditionally scores well. You can’t have all the $600,000 premiums this year.
Jack Macrae $578,900 BE: 110 MID 2020 average: 108.2
Barring a start to the season like Lachie Neale has produced, a player with Macrae’s steep starting price of $668,900 will always be available cheaper. He’s dropped by $90,000 but has an achievable break even of 110 this week. If he does bottom out further, it won’t be by much. Macrae hasn’t scored less than 90 this season and has gone above 130 twice after his season-high of 138 against Carlton on Sunday. He had 26 disposals and seven inside-50s against the Blues.
Worth the risk? Is it really a risk? Proven performer and will continue to have a prominent inside role until Josh Dunkley returns.
Tim Kelly $500,000 BE: 75 MID 2020 average: 95.2
Amid the Elliot Yeo hype last week, his Eagles teammate Tim Kelly was able to slip under the radar. Yet Kelly is averaging eight points more a game than Yeo and arguably has greater upside — as he showed with 140 KFC SuperCoach points against Adelaide. His price is only going up after jumping by $16,400 after his 24-disposal game against the Crows.
Worth the risk? Definitely.Hasn’t hit his straps yet as an Eagle but still has three hundreds. One of the better value picks with an average of 95.
Stephen Coniglio $475,600 BE: 78 MID 2020 average: 93.5
Barring a Round 7 disaster for the Giants skipper, this is as cheap as he’ll be available for most of 2020. Coniglio can be a frustrating player to own in KFC SuperCoach. Last year he had nine tons but they were offset by six totals of less than 90. He’s been solid without hitting his scoring ceiling this season, producing five scores of 87-114. His one poor game was a 49 against Collingwood when he was used as a defensive forward unsuccessfully.
Worth the risk? Think so. Since the start of 2018 he averages 114 points a game at Giants Stadium, where plenty of games will be played this year.
Dan Houston $452,700 BE: 38 DEF-MID 2020 average: 85.7
So much for Houston being a classic KFC SuperCoach trap. Thousands of coaches jumped off the Power utility after he failed to reach 80 in the opening four rounds, only for his scoring to take off since. Houston has posted 117 and 109 in the past two weeks, relishing greater time in midfield against GWS after Ryan Burton’s return to the Port Adelaide team. He’s still $32,100 cheaper than he started the season.
Worth the risk? No. Well done if you held him, but if another defender goes down as Ryan Burton did, his role could change again.
Marcus Bontempelli $570,700 BE: 162 MID 2020 average: 100.7
Three tags in the opening six rounds have left Bontempelli’s KFC SuperCoach owners frustrated. The worst of those came in Round 5 when he was restricted to 55 points by Luke McDonald and he managed to shake Ed Curnow’s attention on Sunday to post 116 points. Few players can amass points as quickly as the Bulldogs skipper but he has a habit of going quiet for periods too.
Worth the risk? Did you watch his 111-point half against Sydney? That should provide the answer. He’s had issues with taggers but that only presents opportunity to get him much cheaper than he started.
Luke Ryan $479,100 BE: 66 DEF 2020 average: 89.2
Ryan has never been the most consistent defensive scorer, but his huge ceiling makes him an attractive option. He’s scored consecutive tons in the past two rounds and produced a season-best 123 in Round 2 against Brisbane Lions. Fremantle has conceded an average of 45 inside-50s a match and eight behinds, giving Ryan ample opportunity to amass points as the club’s designated kick-in taker. His scoring has suffered when he’s been forced to play as a tall defender rather than having his usual freedom.
Worth the risk? Yes. Takes kick-ins for Fremantle and the Dockers have conceded 40 inside-50s in every match, giving up 55 against Port Adelaide and 50 against Gold Coast.
Rory Laird $486,200 BE: 101 DEF 2020 average: 89.3
Only two scores of more than 88 so far for Laird, whose owners have endured an underwhelming start. He’s not scoring badly enough to justify trading him but has only managed two triple-figure scores in six games — both when he had 25 disposals, against Fremantle and Gold Coast. He’s down the list of defensive trade targets with so many others performing well at a similar price.
Worth the risk? Really depends who else you have in defence. Jake Lloyd, Jordan Ridley and Nick Haynes should be your top defensive targets. Laird relies heavily on disposal numbers to score well.
Shannon Hurn $455,800 DEF BE: 159 2020 average: 84.5
The Eagles defender’s numbers have dropped off significantly this year, averaging 16 disposals and four marks a game compared to 23 and seven last season. Worryingly for the 19,000 teams with Hurn (me included!) Brad Sheppard (19 possessions), Liam Duggan (17) and Jackson Nelson (16) were preferred as outlets from defence against Adelaide. It’s worth noting Sydney and Adelaide have had a combined 54 inside-50s in the past two rounds, severely limiting his opportunities.
Worth the risk? Not on current form. Hurn has scored 68 and 39 in the past two weeks and only managed 10 disposals against Adelaide. If he turns his form around at Optus Stadium he could be a bargain D6 — but don’t jump on until he definitely has.
Round 6 #supercoach Price Projection*-Shannon Hurn
— Brice Mitchell (@bricemitchell) July 11, 2020
Start Price $562k
2019Av 104
R6Price $500k
2020Scores 152/73/89/86/68
R6BE 137
R6Score 39
R6:$500k->$456k ($-44k) NewBE 159
ProjScore 85
R7(FR-OS):$456k->$423k ($-33k) NewBE 123
R8(GE-OS):$423k->$405k ($-17k) NewBE 68
*approx https://t.co/2dyTvHCJKy
Toby Greene $471,000 FWD BE: 86 2020 average: 88
Greene thrust himself into the premium conversation last season when teammates such as Josh Kelly and Stephen Coniglio were sidelined through injury and he starred as a midfielder. Against Port Adelaide he won 61 per cent of his possessions in the forward half, which is where he’ll spend most of his time barring another spate of injuries. Lachie Whitfield and Bailey Smith are better options and both cheaper.
Worth the risk? Probably not. Greene has the 16th-best average of this year’s forwards and you can get a form player such as Andrew Brayshaw for the same price. Otherwise, Hugh Greenwood and Christian Petracca don’t cost much more.
Dustin Martin $481,100 FWD-MID BE: 122 2020 average: 89
Arguably the game’s best player available for $450,000 in KFC SuperCoach? It could only happen in 2020. Martin has dropped by more than $60,000 in the past three rounds since returning from a rib injury and has a high score of 93 since Round 1. He was meant to be a lock as a top-two forward but might not even be top-six at this rate.
Worth the risk? I’m torn. Martin at his best is an obvious target at this price but he hasn’t been as dynamic since returning from a rib injury. He has a three-round average of 80 which isn’t enough for a premium.
And watch for …
Nat Fyfe $639,000 BE: 218 MID 2020 average: 114.8
Andrew Gaff $558,500 BE: 176 MID 2020 average: 105.8
Lachie Neale $747,800 BE: 173 MID 2020 average: 150.8
CHOPPING BLOCK
Shannon Hurn $455,800 DEF BE: 159 Avg: 84.5
Jon Ceglar $415,700 RUC-FWD BE: 147 Avg: 79
Dan Butler $451,600 FWD BE: 129 Avg: 93.5
Connor Rozee $369,200 FWD BE: 109 Avg: 76.7
Marc Pittonet $434,200 RUC BE: 96 Avg: 104.6
Devon Smith $393,900 FWD-MID BE: 92 Avg: 83.6
Curtis Taylor $276,000 FWD BE: 46 Avg: 62.2
Connor Budarick $229,300 FWD-MID BE: 54 Avg: 52.2
Tyler Brown $232,200 MID BE: 62 Avg: 52.2
Brandon Starcevich $277,700 DEF-MID BE: 93 Avg: 58.2
GOING DOWN?
Lachie Neale $747,800 BE: 173 MID Avg: 150.8 Price change: -$15,500
Nat Fyfe $639,000 BE: 218 MID Avg: 114.8 Price change: -$31,500
Andrew Gaff $558,500 BE: 176 MID Avg: 105.8 Price change: -$38,700
Marcus Bontempelli $570,700 BE: 162 MID Avg: 100.7 Price change: +$2300
Luke Parker $557,700 BE: 171 Avg: 103.7 Price change: -$30,700
Patrick Cripps $551,800 BE: 150 MID Avg: 100.8 Price change: -$41,800
Hugh McCluggage $576,700 BE: 147 Avg: 106.2 Price change: -$3400
Travis Boak $596,600 BE: 145 Avg: 114.8 Price change: -$33,100
Clayton Oliver $573,800 MID BE: 133 Avg: 107.8 Price change: -$13,400
Bailey Smith $435,800 FWD-MID BE: 132 Avg: 91.3 Price change: -$23,800
Tom Mitchell $601,000 MID BE: 128 Avg: 112.7 Price change: +$9000
Josh Kelly $584,200 MID BE: 127 Avg: 105 Price change: -$4300
Dustin Martin $481,100 FWD-MID BE: 122 Avg: 89 Price change: -$24,700
Shannon Hurn $455,800 DEF BE: 159 Avg: 84.5 Price change: -$44,100
Brandon Starcevich $277,700 DEF-MID BE: 93 Avg: 58.2 Price change: -$17,700
Dan Butler $451,600 FWD BE: 129 Avg: 93.5 Price change: -$6400
KEY BREAK EVENS
Premiums ($500,000 or more)
Callum Mills $532,00 DEF Avg: 109.8 BE: 19 Projected price rise: +$46,400
Hugh Greenwood $515,300 FWD-MID Avg: 107.7 BE: 43 Projected price rise: +$28,100
Jordan Ridley $503,900 DEF Avg: 112.2 BE: 61 Projected price rise: +$22,600
Nick Haynes $561,600 DEF Avg: 113.8 BE: 67 Projected price rise: +$11,600
Tim Kelly $500,000 MID Avg: 95.2 BE: 75 Projected price rise: +$11,200
Christian Petracca $512,500 FWD Avg: 107 BE: 84 Projected price rise: +$2600
Patrick Dangerfield $585,500 MID Avg: 108.2 BE: 92 Projected price rise: +$6300
Jy Simpkin $555,800 FWD-MID Avg: 119.7 Projected price rise: +$16,200
Jack Macrae $578,900 MID Avg: 108.2 Projected price rise: +$400
Max Gawn $753,000 RUC Avg: 146.8 Projected price rise: +$7800
Mid-pricers ($250,000-$500,000)
Brayden Ham $253,500 FWD-MID Avg: 62.7 BE: -24 Projected price rise: $35,700
Mitch Hannan $264,000 FWD Avg: 74 BE: -16 Projected price rise: +$28,900
Laitham Vandermeer $267,700 FWD-MID Avg: 64.4 BE: -12 Projected price rise: +$33,800
Will Snelling $302,200 FWD Avg: 64.8 BE: -7 Projected price rise: +$31,900
Kane Lambert $458,400 FWD Avg: 89 BE: 1 Projected price rise: +$43,400
Tom Doedee $380,100 DEF Avg: 84.2 BE: 1 Projected price rise: +$37,400
Max King $264,300 FWD Avg: 60 BE: 7 Projected price rise: +$25,300
Andrew Brayshaw $474,400 FWD-MID Avg: 96.7 BE: 11 Projected price rise: +$41,400
Stephen Hill $251,000 DEF-FWD Avg: 69.3 BE: 12 Projected price rise: +$18,500
Darcy Fort $356,400 FWD Avg: 86.5 BE: 17 Projected price rise: +$28,000
Rookies (Under $250,000)
Sam Simpson $123,900 MID Avg: 112 BE: -63 Projected price rise: +$49,700
Izak Rankine $123,900 FWD Avg: 111 BE: -62 Projected price rise: +$76,900
Will Day $153,300 DEF Avg: 92 BE: -30 Projected price rise: +$54,700
Mitchell Hibberd MID Avg: 57 BE: -29 Projected price rise: +$35,000
Andrew McPherson $123,900 DEF Avg: 76 BE: -27 Projected price rise: +$45,700
Harley Bennell $152,200 MID Avg: 56.5 BE: -24 Projected price rise: +$36,200
Will Hamill $171,900 DEF Avg: 45.8 BE: -21 Projected price rise: +$29,700
Louis Butler $141,900 DEF-MID Avg: 51 BE: -19 Projected price rise: +$31,300
Ned McHenry $173,900 MID Avg: 40.6 BE: -17 Projected price rise: +$26,000
Jake Aarts $148,200 FWD Avg: 52 BE: -17 Projected price rise: +$30,900
BIGGEST OWNERSHIP CHANGES*
Izak Rankine +16.2% of teams
Sam Simpson +12%
Will Day +4.3%
Jy Simpkin +1.7%
Andrew McPherson +1.6%
Bailey Smith +1.2%
Nick Haynes +1.0%
Patrick Dangerfield +0.9%
Lachie Whitfield +0.8%
Jordan Ridley +0.8%
Callum Mills +0.8%
Curtis Taylor -5.0%
Isaac Heeney -4.5%
Tyler Brown -4.2%
Brandon Starcevich -4.1%
Matthew Rowell -3.9%
Jarrod Brander -2.9%
Connor Budarick -2.8%
John Noble -2.5%
Hayden Young -1.5%
Justin McInerney -1.3%
Sam Sturt -1.2%
Ben Long -1.1%
*Ownership changes current as of 3pm Thursday.
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KFC SuperCoach’s best rookie options ahead of Round 7
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Originally published as KFC SuperCoach Round 7 trade guide: Best rookies and bargain-priced stars