KFC SuperCoach experts Al Paton, Tim Michell, Dan Batten and The Phantom reveal their trade plans for the next three rounds
Double downgrade or go for points? This week’s trade call could be the biggest of the year. In what is a crucial period for KFC SuperCoach, here’s how four of our experts plan make and spend their money in rounds 7-9
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This week’s trade decision could be the one which makes or breaks your KFC SuperCoach season.
Do you make the obvious double downgrade to Izak Rankine ($123k FWD) and Sam Simpson ($123k MID). who both scored KFC SuperCoach tons last round?
Or do you try to make up ground by picking one rookie and injecting a premium player elsewhere?
Whichever options you choose, planning ahead if essential.
But regardless of what you do this week, Western Bulldogs midfielder Bailey Smith is about to become the most-popular KFC SuperCoach trade target after emerging as one of the competition’s most-exciting prospects.
SCROLL DOWN TO SEE THE TRADES OUR EXPERTS ARE PLANNING
Smith is projected to be about $417,000 in Round 8, only $1000 more than his starting price.
That is despite averaging 106.5 to Round 4, when his value had jumped to $502,000.
But the 19-year-old was concussed in his next match against North Melbourne, scoring three SuperCoach points, and his price has been plummeting for the past two weeks as a result.
Smith has elevated his average from 76.6 last season to 91.3, although he has averaged 109 in his five completed games.
So much for the second-year blues.
Only Jy Simpkin (119.7, $555,800) and Michael Walters (113.2, $572,600) have managed higher than that mark, with the gulf to Smith’s Round 7 price of $435,800 an indication of his immense value.
The 6.2 per cent of teams with Smith have enjoyed one of the best points of difference to date, although that’s about to change.
There’s already been an influx of Smith trades ahead of Round 7 and he will likely be the No. 1 target for most coaches next week after loading their banks with a double downgrade.
Here’s what our experts are planning in the next few weeks to strengthen their teams:
TIM MICHELL
Round 7
Tyler Brown to Hugh Greenwood
Brandon Starcevich or John Noble to Izak Rankine via DPP
Round 8
Brett Bewley to Bailey Smith
Jarrod Brander or John Noble to Andrew McPherson or Will Day
Round 9
Max King to forward rookie
Midfield rookie (possibly Tom Green) to Patrick Cripps
Flexibility is going to be crucial in the next month with a glut of games in store. By trading in Greenwood and Smith, I’ll have two premium scorers capable of filling a hole in midfield or up forward as required. This is why I’m inclined to keep Connor Budarick over Max King to use his DPP swing to pivot this pair, plus Dustin Martin, Devon Smith and Lachie Whitfield. Greenwood has a break even of 43 this round and is the third-ranked forward of the season. Smith’s break even is 132, so it makes sense to hold off a week and try to get him for cheaper than his current price of $435,800. I suspect thousands of coaches will be thinking the same. I’m going to try to avoid sacrificing players who could feature in the next month such as Brander and Noble but might have little choice but to cash them in. Jy Simpkin, Max Gawn and Jake Lloyd will have to be longer-term targets as Cripps will likely be too cheap to overlook in Round 9.
AL PATON
ROUND 7
Sam Sturt/Curtis Taylor to Izak Rankine
Tyler Brown to Sam Simpson
I should have got Rankine last week. If one of Sturt or Taylor misses selection this week they’re out, if both are picked I’ll probably cut Taylor due to his higher break even. I have some concerns about Simpson’s long-term scoring and job security at the Cats — who have a lot of similar midfield types — but I can’t pass up that potential cash injection. We might not get too many more chances like this in 2020.
ROUND 8
Trent Rivers to Will Day/Andrew McPherson
Rookie to Bailey Smith
I really need to beef-up my defence but hopefully I can get away with one more week without bench cover then get whichever of Day or McPherson looks the best long-term prospect after one more look at them — I’m prepared to pay a little more after their first price change. Bulldog Bailey Smith will be one of the bargains of the year at about $420k next week, and I’ll have enough money to upgrade any of my rookies in the midfield or forward line to him – let’s see who’s playing in a week (if a Justin McInerney type is still on the outer, it’s sayonara).
ROUND 9
Dangerous to plan this far ahead in 2020, but after the above moves I’ll still have enough cash in the bank to upgrade another matured rookie to a top-liner. I’m not going to name names yet — a lot could change between now and then!
THE PHANTOM
ROUND 7
Brandon Starcevich to Sam Simpson
Connor Budarick to Izak Rankine
Cash in bank: $397,100
ROUND 8
Curtis Taylor to Bailey Smith
Justin McInerney/Tyler Brown to Elliot Yeo
OR
Marc Pittonet to Max Gawn
Jarrod Brander to Andrew McPherson
*Then Taylor to Smith the following week.
OR
Marc Pittonet to Todd Goldstein
Curtis Taylor to Bailey Smith
I’m climbing but, after a slow start, the points-hit, which an upgrade could bring this week, would be handy. The temptation is real.
But, while there are other rookie-price options on the horizon, they aren’t Izak Rankine or Sam Simpson.
Sure, it’s a short season but this is the round to be patient.
Not only will Rankine and Simpson make quick cash, following scores of 111 and 112 respectively, they are immediate on-field options.
I know Chris Scott coaches the Cats — yes, I had Charlie Constable last year — but I think this is different.
Simpson’s role increased after the early injuries to Mitch Duncan and Quinton Narkle but he was still picked to play in the same side.
And hopefully a double upgrade in Round 8 will make up for it.
With another high breakeven of 132, Bulldogs young gun Bailey Smith will just about be the buy of the season next week.
I like the idea of keeping Connor Budarick but to make every dollar count, he’ll go before Taylor given his higher breakeven.
Depending on what happens on the field in Round 7, I might still not be able to afford Elliot Yeo but my fingers are crossed.
McInerney playing and scoring well will be the key.
There’s an alternative, however.
The plan for me, like most, was to upgrade Marc Pittonet to Max Gawn at some point.
But that’s becoming increasingly difficult given the Melbourne big man’s form.
I’d have the cash to do it next round, regardless of what happens this weekend, but is two upgrades better than one? There’s an argument either way.
Maybe Todd Goldstein, who is averaging seven more points than Brodie Grundy, comes into the picture, leaving enough money for Smith.
Ah, planning trades before the KFC SuperCoach carnage is always fun.
DAN BATTEN
Round 7
IN: Izak Rankine and Jack Macrae
OUT: John Noble and Jon Ceglar
Round 8
IN: Rookie/fallen-premium and Bailey Smith
OUT: Curtis Taylor and Marc Pittonet
I had originally planned for a double downgrade but an untimely injury to Jon Ceglar - or timely considering his form - is likely to force my hand.
I have been eyeing Jack Macrae for a few weeks and his performance against the Blues in a significant loss is what we’ve come to expect from the SuperCoach star in recent seasons.
Likewise, seeing promising Geelong Sam Simpson named on the bench with wet conditions expected for their clash on Thursday night has left with me with second thoughts about a double downgrade
Hawk Will Day could come into my thinking this week pending teams.
Macrae’s midfield counterpart Bailey Smith will be too hard to pass up next week and depending on price changes I may be able to nab another fallen premium.
MORE SUPERCOACH ADVICE:
SuperCoach Round 7 formguide: Fantasy Freako’s top rookie picks, fast starters and finishers
KFC SuperCoach: Rookies to trade out to make way for Round 7 bubble boys
KFC SuperCoach Round 7 trade guide: Best rookies and bargain-priced stars
KFC SuperCoach 2020: The best rookie options ahead of Round 7
KFC SuperCoach 2020: The Phantom’s Round 6 review, burning questions and trade advice
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