KFC SuperCoach 2023: The Phantom answers the burning questions ahead of Round 2
What’s real and what’s an overreaction? The Phantom names the players who need to go and who to hold in KFC SuperCoach this week.
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What. A. Week.
You’d think we would be used to ups and downs by now, but the opening round of KFC SuperCoach was something else.
For every Harry Sheezel (114), there was a Campbell Chesser (20).
For every Finn Callaghan (101), there was a Liam Jones (5).
And it wasn’t much better in premium category.
Rory Laird scored 50 – not in the first quarter, but the entire game – Tom Stewart went off injured and big-name midfielders Lachie Neale, Christian Petracca, Jack Steele, Andy Brayshaw and Josh Kelly all failed to reach three figures for differing reasons.
Thank the KFC SuperCoach gods for Tom Green.
Sorry, I got distracted, where were we?
Oh, yeah, what the f*** do we do now?
Sorry about the language, but I think some will agree that just about sums up the confusion many KFC SuperCoaches are feeling right now.
Do I trade off one week’s data or hold fire? Will I fall behind by not being aggressive? What was Nat Fyfe doing on Sunday? How many trades will I need next week? Why didn’t I start Harry Sheezel?
Grab a cuppa – or something a lot stronger – and settle in, we’re going to need a bit of time.
And that’s just to talk about Green’s 37 disposals.
OK, let’s get serious, what should you do first?
With Stewart to miss up to a month with a knee injury, moving on the Geelong defender is the No. 1 priority this week.
Thankfully, it appears a pretty simple trade. Sam Docherty and Jordan Dawson are straight swaps, with the Crows captain a good chance to top his opening-round score of 97 against the Tigers this weekend.
Richmond have given up big points to defenders in the past and it was no different against the Blues last Thursday, with Jacob Weitering (120), Adam Saad (115), Sam Docherty (108) and Mitch McGovern (106) all recording a KFC SuperCoach ton.
But it’s also a chance to look for value, and give yourself some extra cash for a second – or third – trade this week, and for those important moves ahead of the price changes next round.
TRADE GUIDE: ALL THE BEST SUPERCOACH OPTIONS AHEAD OF ROUND 2
As much as I love Nick Daicos as a player, surely opposition sides start to lean more towards Hawthorn’s pre-season approach of tagging him, and away from Geelong’s method of letting him cruise around the MCG and hit the target with 32 of his 35 disposals.
Port Adelaide, Collingwood’s Round 2 opponent, suggested on Monday they may do just that.
And, last year, the Power conceded 65 points per game to running defenders, the fewest of any team in the competition.
So, I’d go with Hayden Young, if you’re after some value. Over the pre-season, I tipped the fourth-year Docker to push his average from 92 to 104. And, after what happened against the Saints, he’s on track. Sure, the Dockers aren’t going to take 136 marks – 49 more than St Kilda – and share the ball around in defence like they did on Sunday every week, but, like he showed last year, Young is a weapon going forward and his ability to win the ball back off the opposition is growing rapidly.
The 21-year-old took five intercept marks in Round 1 and 34 of his 35 disposals were effective.
What next?
If you have Josh Kelly, in the new age of KFC SuperCoach with extra trades, he probably goes, too. It’s not an absolute must, but with the 12-day mandatory concussion period ending a day before the Giants’ Round 3 clash with Carlton, Kelly will miss at least one match.
Do you have rookie bench cover you are confident on? Me either.
If you don’t have Green – why do you keep ignoring me? – make the move. Otherwise, consider a slight restructure using Kelly.
Downgrading Kelly to Finn Callaghan might give you enough cash to add an extra premium elsewhere on your field – hopefully in defence. Liam Jones is the prime candidate here if you have him.
J.Kelly
— The SCodfather (@magicmoments000) March 19, 2023
NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO pic.twitter.com/0f6730nC9O
Fantasy Freako tells me Callaghan’s kicking efficiency of 86.7 per cent was the best of the top-50 ball-winners in the midfield in Round 1 – it really was a treat to watch.
I had my doubts that maybe the uncontested nature of the role early in his career may hurt him KFC SuperCoach-wise when things got hard for the Giants, but they will give the ball to him and he will use it with precision.
Finn Callaghan had the best kicking efficiency (86.7%) of the top-50 ball-winning mids for Round 1. Jason Horne-Francis (82.4%) was next best. #SuperCoach
— Fantasy Freako (@FantasyFreako) March 19, 2023
Is that what you are doing, Phantom?
I am still deciding, but Jason Horne-Francis is in my sights. Yes, it’s one game, but I’ve seen enough. We’ve tracked him for a long time over here in South Australia, and what he did on Saturday against, arguably, the best midfield in the competition comes as no surprise.
What we didn’t know was whether the second-year midfielder, who is the most-traded-in player in KFC SuperCoach at the time of writing, would hit the ground running after the media frenzy over summer.
He did.
Horne-Francis, who attended 20 centre bounces – the third-most for the Power – has now posted KFC SuperCoach scores of 136 and 160 (SANFL preliminary final) in his past two games at Adelaide Oval.
Ideally, you wait another week – the Magpies at the MCG is a different challenge altogether. But, think about all the must-have rookies or boom mid-price options you want to jump on ahead of the Round 3 prices rises. And that’s without any other issues popping up next week.
Speaking of issues, let’s get back to Jones, what should we do there?
The good news is Jones has been cleared of any major damage after Saturday night’s neck scare, and is a chance to play against the Saints in Round 2.
The bad news is he had one kick in close to a half of footy before he was subbed off late in the second term.
If he does miss, a move to Lion Conor McKenna, who impressed with 93 points against the Power, appears a simple solution.
Even he plays, that five-point score will hurt Jones’ cash-generation in the short-term so, if you can find the money, as mentioned above, play another defender premium instead.
What about Nat Fyfe?
Well, for a player of his quality, can it get any worse? The Brownlow Medalist, who looked imposing as a forward in the practice match, couldn’t get near the ball in the first half against the Saints. He finished with nine disposals, six clangers and a sore chest after the ball bounced off it late in the game.
But the Dockers are at home this week against the Roos and, even though we shouldn’t expect Fyfe to repeat his recent form against North Melbourne – 125, 140, 147, 163, 126 and 139 – I’m expecting a much better showing.
I would trade Jones before Fyfe.
And Rory Laid?
Another baffling performance from the usually-consistent Crows ball-magnet. The same player who scored 120 points or more in 14 games last season, recorded just 14 points in the second-half against the Giants.
13 more than Fyfe in the first half, but still.
Eagles rookie Reuben Ginbey almost applied more tackles on debut – he had 12.
But even though it was Laird’s lowest non-injury-affected score since 2014, I’m holding. He’s back at Adelaide Oval on Saturday and the Tigers are unlikely to ride him as hard through the middle.
THE BIG SHORT
— Daniel Begala (@danbegala) March 20, 2023
I am considering “shorting†Rory Laird ($704K) as part of the following trade proposal:
Laird > Phillips
Fyfe > Coniglio
Jones > Ridley
I am certain Laird is a Top 8 MID, however, benefit from adding two premiums to my side.
Anyone else vibing this?#SuperCoach
The KFC SuperCoach Investor, Dan Begala, has already floated the idea of using Laird’s value to trade in two premium players elsewhere, given the looming price crash.
And the idea has merit, The Investor rarely gets a money call wrong. As we learnt last year, if you can improve your team, do it. The old way – well at least some of it – of playing KFC SuperCoach is out the window.
But 160 points from Laird in Round 2 and that 50-point score will soon be a thing of the past. That’s what I am banking on anyway.
Sam Flanders?
He was much better in the second-half and, even though the game was over, he was on of Gold Coast’s better players after half-time, the final term in particular. He’s one I will definitely be giving another week.
Who else are we giving one more week?
Ideally, everyone else. Again, if you can improve your team, do it. Those who did early last season were the hardest to catch. But it’s still only one game, so there is still reason to back your research and judgment.
As you can see, last year’s winner didn’t trade after the first week, but used three in each of the next three rounds. He set himself up early with an aggressive trading strategy, but still had a look at two weeks of data first.
I didn't trade round one last year but then went 3, 3, 3 afterwards for context.
— Jay Peeterman (@JayPeeterman) March 20, 2023
And, yes, that includes Jacob Hopper.
He wasn’t great against the Blues – far from it – but before an injury-ravaged 2022, Hopper averaged 95 KFC SuperCoach points between Round 1, 2019 and Round 23, 2021.
He’s better than the fumbly, rushed version we saw on Thursday night. Remember, Hopper doesn’t need to average three figures.
So, you want to see more from Harry Sheezel?
Actually, no, good point. The role across half-back is a goer, meaning the sublimely-skilled draftee is close to a must-have. Plan ahead and see who else you will need to be trading in ahead of the price rises – think Cam Mackenzie – and whether you will need to go early on Sheezel, to give yourself more flexibility next week.
If that’s the case, do it, and shore up your on-field rookies in the process.
If you have other issues, just leave some money to go up to Sheezel from a bottom-price rookie, whose cash generation isn’t going to cut it, before Round 3.
When are we getting the rundown on Green’s 37?
Might have to push that to next week now, after he’s had 42 against the Eagles. C?
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