KFC SuperCoach: Tom Stewart advice, who else to trade after round 1
Trading a premium after one bad score is asking for trouble in KFC SuperCoach, right? One of our experts is willing to take a huge risk — see why and his round 2 side here.
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Go hard or play it safe? That’s the dilemma facing KFC SuperCoaches heading into round 2.
With up to three trades available (using an optional Trade Boost) there’s an opportunity to fix mistakes in our starting teams, but there’s also a risk of jumping too early based on one good or bad performance.
This is what our experts have planned this week.
AL PATON
OUT: Josh Kelly, Liam Jones, Jack Bytel
IN: Harry Sheezel, Nick Daicos, Finn Callaghan
Yes, I’m burning a Trade Boost one week into the season. I have other versions of trades that hold Kelly or Jones, but I think biting the bullet on both is probably the way to go.
Kelly looked like a great pick until he was poleaxed by Reilly O’Brien last weekend. He’s set to miss one week with concussion but knowing his injury history, and looking at my bench cover, I can’t risk it becoming more. And even though Jones could play this week, do I really want a player at D3 who scores five points in a half?
Trading out both allows me to get two players who I regret not starting. I was worried Sheezel would play in the forward pocket, and I think I overreacted to the possibility of Nick Daicos getting tagged. That will happen, possibly starting this week, but he’s just so good that he’ll still find ways to score – and the weeks he is allowed to run free he can put up some huge numbers that make up for a lower score or two.
Bytel is a forced injury trade and while I don’t expect Callaghan to score three figures every week, he’s definitely going to make money – not something you can say for a lot of midfield cheapies.
Under this plan Nat Fyfe (who somehow managed to score one point in a half) survives but next week he can become whichever mid-pricer I like after getting another look at Jason Horne-Francis, Jack Ziebell, James Worpel and Co.
THE PHANTOM
OUT: Josh Kelly and Jack Bytel
IN: Jason Horne-Francis and Finn Callaghan
At this point, that’s what I am thinking – but it’s far from locked in. Kelly will miss at least one match, with his 12-day concussion period up the day before the Giants’ round 3 clash with Carlton. Is that my reason to jump on some value that I missed this week, in order to open up some flexibility next round? As much as I like him and his role this year, it probably is. And I’m sure Horne-Francis’s value is real. The only pre-season concern I had was whether he would hit the ground running after the media frenzy, and associated pressure, over summer. And he has.
And after seeing what he did with the ball against the Crows, the plan was to get Callaghan at some point before his price rises. And with Bytel’s knee injury, I am happy to jump on now and – hopefully – keep the solid on-field scoring with Callaghan on his way to the wide expanses of Optus Stadium on Sunday. Even though I was always going to trade aggressively early, I wouldn’t be forcing this if they weren’t injured, and Bytel’s prognosis may change the plan again.
TIM MICHELL
OUT: Rory Laird, Tom Stewart and Jacob Hopper
IN: Stephen Coniglio, Jordan Ridley and Hayden Young
Trading Laird probably makes no sense. But logic doesn’t always apply in KFC SuperCoach and sometimes it’s best to just go with your gut. I was so close to picking Young or Ridley instead of Stewart, and his knee injury gives me the chance to right that wrong decision.
I might be being ridiculously aggressive by trading Laird – especially when he’s up against Richmond – but his value gets me Stephen Coniglio before he faces West Coast and from Hopper to Young/Ridley.
I was always going to trade Hopper at some point anyway and was pretty unconvinced by what I saw in round 1. He’s another who could burn me, but the hope is this could ultimately help me fast track my upgrades. I’ll have $70k spare for next week and three trades to target Horne-Francis, Setterfield and/or Ziebell if they back up their round 1 performances.
As my son would say, this is my yeet move for 2023. Let’s see how spectacularly it unravels or works out.
This is how the Laird trade plan will leave Tim’s team for round 2:
— Tim Michell (@tim_michell) March 21, 2023
DAN BATTEN
NO TRADES
… For now. Ben King, Liam Jones, Jacob Hopper and Rory Laird are on the chopping block, but I want to wait another to week to make sure I’m buying the right rookies and, potentially, mid-pricers. I’ll have a big watch on Finn Callaghan, Tom Cole, Kade Chandler, Luke Pedlar and Charlie Comben this weekend, as well as Jason Horne-Francis and Jack Ziebell. If all of these guys fire I’ll probably have to grab JHF/Ziebell after their first price rise, but I’m willing to cop that rather than burn a trade off one week of data.
Ultimate KFC SuperCoach round 1 trade guide
Disaster struck for more than 50,000 KFC SuperCoaches when Tom Stewart went down with a knee injury after less than a quarter of Geelong’s Friday night loss to Collingwood.
Stewart was subbed at quarter-time with 18 points in a bitter blow for those who chose him over Sam Docherty, Jordan Dawson or James Sicily in their defence.
And he wasn’t the only selection that started a new season with so-much promise only to turn pear-shaped before the end of the first weekend of the season.
Scroll down for our assessment of the premiums, rookies and mid-pricers to trade in and out, but Stewart is the most pressing issue with reports he is set to miss 3-4 matches.
Bad luck is part of KFC SuperCoach and savvy coaches will turn the Stewart blow into an opportunity to set their season up. Here are six ways you can find a silver lining in an opening-round injury shocker.
1. Straight swap to another defensive star
Bank the premium points from round 2 by jumping on one of Dawson, Sicily and Docherty who you didn’t start. Ultimately, you will only be one trade down when you bring Stewart back when his price bottoms out anyway, as it would have cost two trades (one up, one down) to bring in one of the other $600k defenders at some stage. So you’re effectively getting Stewart and one of Dawson, Sicily, Docherty for three trades, which isn’t a bad outcome.
2. Bank $100k and get Nick Daicos
Sure to be a popular move after the father-son Magpie got off the leash and had 35 disposals and 91 per cent efficiency against the Cats. Plenty were scared off by the pre-season tag Daicos copped against Hawthorn and he’s unlikely to be given the same freedom by many other teams. Just remember before you make the switch, chasing last week’s points rarely works in KFC SuperCoach. Then again, Daicos isn’t any ordinary player –
so do the usual rules really apply? He scored 129 against Geelong in a perfect start for coaches who backed him in despite the tag concerns.
3. Bank $100k and get another potential breakout star
Hayden Young and Jordan Ridley appear the pick of the options at a similar price to Daicos. Ridley has shown premium qualities before, while Young had 30 disposals and 13 marks on his way to 137 points against St Kilda. Both have the talent, intercept ability and kicking efficiency to average 100-plus.
4. Straight swap to a midfield premium via DPP
Stewart’s value could be enough to bring in Jack Steele, Darcy Parish, Tom Green or Luke Davies-Uniacke. All you will need to do to make it happen is swing a rookie such as Charlie Constable or Campbell Chesser back to fill Stewart’s spot in defence. Just beware it could leave your backline thin if a rookie or two is dropped at some stage.
5. Hold Stewart and field one of the many defensive rookies in his place
Defence is where most KFC SuperCoaches have chosen to go skinny this year, choosing only 1-2 premiums and rookies. If you had Constable, Chesser, Wilmot or McKenna on your bench in round 1, they could get you through a period of 2-3 weeks where Stewart misses (depending on the prognosis from Geelong this week). You might sacrifice a few points but that trade saved could make a big difference during the run home.
6. Grab a fast starter in defence
Daniel Rioli (126 points) and Adam Saad (115) were both outstanding in the season opener and look like great point-of-difference selections. Rioli is only in 2 per cent of teams and Saad is in 4 per cent. After their strong round 1 performances, it’s likely they will rise in price in a few weeks. That could even mean come round 6-7 when Stewart bottoms out (pending his time out) then you could make a profit by trading them back to Stewart. If you want to be even bolder, you could jump on a mid-pricer you missed, ride their cash generation and then flip them back to Stewart when the time is right.
7. Split his value and grab two mid-price bolters
Missed Jason Horne-Francis and Jack Ziebell? How about even riskier picks such as Mitch McGovern and Kane Farrell? If you use Stewart’s $604k, you could trade him and a bottom-dollar rookie to Horne-Francis and Finn Callaghan, for example. The issue here is it would weaken your defence, but you could always grab Tom Cole before round 3 if he scores well again for West Coast.
TRADE GUIDE: WHO ELSE TO PUNT, WHO TO TARGET
Traditional KFC SuperCoaches will tell you not to overreact to one game. Trust your pre-season research, back your calls and your premiums. Most top-end players will drop a poor score or two during the year, if it was round 1 the chances are it won’t happen again for a while – last year Jack Steele scored 87 in round 1 then averaged 125 over the next six games.
But there was another big lesson of 2022 – players who got on the bargain bolters early got a huge advantage. Is it worth jumping off a round 1 underperformer to make sure you don’t miss out on one of the best picks of the season?
We have another round before prices start to change, and up to three trades next week to fix those issues – with one extra week of data. But after the injury dramas we’ve seen already, we might need those for other issues.
Who should we be looking at closely? We’ve grouped players on thin ice and on the trade radar into three categories based on how urgently we need to deal with them.
PREMIUMS
Rory Laird is in the gun for more than 46,000 coaches after his worst KFC SuperCoach score since 2014. His 18-disposal, 50-point performance came out of the blue, and was even harder to stomach given his $700k-plus price tag. Is it a trend or a bizarre blip? He has a chance to bounce back next week against Richmond, a team that usually doesn’t tag opposition midfielders. If Laird posts a big total his price won’t be hurt too badly given round 1 will quickly move out of his price cycle. Another flop and he’ll be on the chopping block.
Josh Kelly also creates a dilemma after he was crunched by Reilly O’Brien and missed most of the last quarter of the Giants’ gutsy win. He’s set to miss next week with concussion, but should return the following week. The Giants play the last game of the round so you should be able to use him to loophole your best rookie bench score. Just keep ears to the ground for any indication he could be missing for longer.
When it comes to premium trade targets, Nick Daicos and Luke Davies-Uniacke jump off the page after monster scores in round 1. Of the pair, Daicos appears the most vulnerable to a tag and Davies-Uniacke is worth assessing when he plays Fremantle in Perth next weekend, which will be a tougher test than the Eagles at home.
Tom Green (134) continued his monster pre-season and looks set to join the top echelon of KFC SuperCoach midfielders, while Max Gawn-Tim English is the early leader for the top ruck combination of 2023.
ROOKIES
The four priority targets if you don’t have them are Harry Sheezel ($198,300 FWD, 114 points), Cam Mackenzie ($180,300 MID, 93), Conor McKenna ($167,500 DEF, 93), Reuben Ginbey ($171,300 DEF/MID, 85 points). If you don’t have more than two it’s worth bringing in one this week – all four look to be safe on-field scoring options with Sheezel having the highest ceiling.
A number of other rookies who performed well in round 1 are worth monitoring before the round 3 price changes including Kade Chandler ($123,900 FWD, 93), Tom Cole ($182,300 DEF, 78) and Luke Pedlar ($173,400 FWD, 83 points).
On the flip side, Anthony Caminiti and Fergus Greene were among the cheapies to struggle in week one. Another poor score and they will be candidates for a pre-round 3 rookie correction trade – but if you have the cash to turn Caminiti into Sheezel this week, do it!
Stay tuned for our rookie guide for all the cheapie intel you need to know.
MID-PRICERS
Value selections in KFC SuperCoach are always hit and miss – how many did you get right?
Again, we are judging on just one week and there’s no guarantee that form will continue, but it’s worth noting that last year’s KFC SuperCoach champion used a Trade Boost after round 1 to ensure he had all the mid-pricers who were about to shoot up in value.
If you wanted to play a similarly aggressive game, the players to target are Jason Horne-Francis ($348,800 MID/FWD, 134 points), Jordan De Goey ($468,700 MID, 130), Errol Gulden ($472,000 MID/FWD, 115), Ed Richards ($460,400 DEF, 106), Jack Ziebell ($356,400 FWD, 102), Finn Callaghan ($244,000 MID, 101) and Darcy Cameron ($465,900 RUC/FWD, 103).
Are you confident enough any of that list will be in the top players on their line at the end of the season? De Goey, Ziebell, Richards and Gulden all seem to have sustainable and lucrative roles and should keep scoring well, while Cameron played as Collingwood’s main ruckman after sharing the role with Mason Cox in the pre-season. Callaghan, in contrast, is worth waiting a week on – his score spiked late in the game when he moved into the centre square to cover for the injured Kelly, something that won’t happen every week.
On the other side of the coin, several mid-price picks flopped in round 1 and will be under extreme pressure to perform next week or face the chop.
Jacob Hopper ($332,000 MID, 67 points) would have scored even lower if not for his final kick that landed in the hands of Tom Lynch for the match-tying goal. He looked very fumbly in his Richmond debut but has a solid centre bounce role and should improve. The Tigers had enough confidence in him to sign him to a seven-year deal so SuperCoaches can afford one more week.
Liam Jones ($228,100 DEF, 5) looked like he was a must-trade after being subbed out with a neck injury in his first game back at the Dogs, but according to the latest injury reports he’s a chance to line up next week. Given he scored only five points owners would be forgiven for biting the bullet now, although there aren’t a lot of options at his price range and if he scores OK this week he should still make us money – although not as much as we had hoped.
Sam Flanders ($256,300 MID/FWD, 64) was on his way out the door of many KFC SuperCoach sides when he had just seven disposals at three-quarter time on Saturday night, but he came to life with 12 touches and a goal in the final term to earn one more week to show he deserves a spot in our teams.
The same may not be able to be said for Nat Fyfe. The Dockers champ played one of the most disappointing games of his career, logging nine disposals, six turnovers and just 26 points. It’s impossible to see him performing that poorly again, especially with the Kangaroos at home next week, but with all the enticing mid-price options above plus rookies like Sheezel, he could be the one to go.
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