KFC SuperCoach 2021 Round 6 trade guide: Role change winners and losers, top trade targets
A new role can be a ticket to KFC SuperCoach success — or disaster. Champion Data reveals the biggest scoring moves. TRADE GUIDE
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AFL coaches have spun the magnets over the summer and there has been quite a few noticeable positional changes in 2021.
A number of these have had a positive impact on KFC SuperCoach scoring, none more so than Jarman Impey. His move back into his customary role in defence has been the catalyst for his booming scores, currently ranking sixth in the competition for points scored by forwards.
SCROLL DOWN FOR THIS WEEK’S TOP TRADE TARGETS
He also ranks third at the Hawks for defensive-half disposals and is poised for another price rise with a break even score of just 41. If you’re not one of his 47,521 owners ahead of Round 6, then you may have missed the boat as his price has already boomed by $192,300 – the second-biggest increase of any player.
ROOKIE GUIDE: INJURY THROWS TRADE PLANS INTO CHAOS
Nat Fyfe is another player whose role has changed this season. He has taken a back seat at Fremantle and ranks fourth at the club for his centre bounce involvement – attending 55 per cent of centre bounces in the games he has played. His scoring hasn’t been affected despite the move – averaging 114 points – ranked ninth in the competition among midfielders.
If you’re in the market for an upgrade in the midfield, then Fyfe looms as the best value option under $600,000. Adding to his appeal is he that he has also collected 139, 163, 147 and 140 points respectively in his past four games against this round’s opponent, North Melbourne.
If you’re after the ultimate POD though, then Bailey Dale could be the answer. Luke Beveridge is the master at spinning the magnets and he has orchestrated Dale’s move to defence. Dale is coming off only the third ton of his career as he racking up a career-high 129 points from 27 disposals and 695 metres gained against the Suns.
Only Alex Keath has won more intercept possessions than Dale at the Bulldogs and after the recent injury to Bailey Williams, Dale may further improve his disposal output in the coming weeks.
If we look at a positional change with a negative impact on scoring, none have been more obvious than Josh Kelly. Leon Cameron has taken him out of the midfield and deployed him predominantly as a forward – spending 65 per cent of game time in attack.
He ranks eighth at the Giants for his centre bounce involvement and hasn’t scored more than 100 points in any game this year. But he has been consistent, winning at least 20 disposals and 90 points in every game. If Kelly does find his way back into the midfield, then he’ll be nicely priced after falling by $76,000 in value already.
Upgrade season is well underway for SuperCoaches, so make sure you choose your
targets wisely!
ROOKIE REPORT
It’s another crucial week for SuperCoaches at the selection table.
Those with Tom Highmore in their team will have to wait until the final match of the round to see if he plays this round, if he finds his way back into the side after playing in the VFL last round. An injury to Jimmy Webster has paved the way for Highmore’s return, although the Saints may opt to bring Ben Long into the starting line-up instead.
Fellow defender Lachie Jones would have been the go-to rookie trade-in this round on the back of two solid performances, but he sustained an ankle injury against the Blues and is now likely to be sidelined for several weeks.
Beau McCreery is also on the bubble ahead of Collingwood’s Anzac Day clash even though he has already played three games (he was a non-playing medical sub on his AFL debut in Round 3). His job security has received a slight boost after Jordan De Goey’s injury, with McCreery’s two goals last round helping him to 57 points. He also worked hard without the ball and ranked third for forward-half pressure points for the Magpies.
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If you’re looking for a downgrade option for Braeden Campbell, who has dropped in price for the first time this season, then Finlay Macrae has to be in the mix. A fellow DPP, Macrae was thrust into the midfield in the final term against the Eagles and won 12 disposals to highlight his appeal. He’s a definite starter on Sunday after attending a mid-week press conference for the match.
Fellow Swans rookies Errol Gulden and Char Warner’s BE scores have both crept over 50 points this round, and a decision on the duo will need to be made very soon. Tom Powell on the other hand continues to go from strength-to-strength and has a negative break even ahead of this round’s clash against Fremantle.
Happy trading and best of luck for Round 6!
WHEN DO WE GRAB FALLEN PREMIUMS?
- The Phantom, Tim Michell
We’re five rounds in to the KFC SuperCoach and upgrade season is almost here.
Sure, there are some rookie issues but the good ones have made some quick cash and there are a number of big-name bargains on the horizon.
The Phantom and Tim Michell look at the fallen premiums to target - and when - over the next month.
Lachie Neale (Bris)
$580,200 Mid, Average: 96.6
For the thousands of KFC SuperCoaches who dumped the Brownlow Medallist at his highest price, the time has come to execute the final part of your stock market exchange. Neale has now fallen by $141k, following a slow start to the year, but after his blistering return to form, in the way of 38 disposals, two goals and 157 points, he’s unlikely to get much cheaper. Neale’s first KFC SuperCoach ton for the year followed his first full week of training since the pre-season, in a sign the back issue is improving. Carlton’s Ed Curnow put some work into Travis Boak on Saturday night but Neale has posted scores of 142, 106 and 159 in his past three against the Blues – Brisbane’s Round 6 opponent.
WHEN TO BUY: With a breakeven of 98, Neale’s price is likely to start rising again this week. Another big KFC SuperCoach ton again in Round 6 and he’ll shooting towards $650k very soon. In a perfect world, he’s your first midfield upgrade this week.
Clayton Oliver (Melb)
$591,600 MID, Avg: 113.4
So long the scourge of KFC SuperCoaches, Matt de Boer has done thousands of us a favour by restricting Oliver to 67 points in Round 3. It would likely have been a lower score, and greater price fall too, had de Boer not gone off injured midway through that game. Oliver has averaged 125 in his other four games and the fact he’s available for under $600k is a godsend. He’s dropped more than $65,000 in the past three rounds but his price is about to start heading north again, unless Richmond can quell Oliver’s influence in their blockbuster Round 6 clash. Oliver is destined to finish the year as one of the topscoring KFC SuperCoach midfielders.
WHEN TO BUY: Sooner the better. Oliver is a lock to score at least 115-120 most weeks and his average of 113 will likely mean is price is closer to $600k again in Round 7. You can get away with waiting one more week, but don’t go into Melbourne’s Round 7 clash against North Melbourne without him. You’ll only be surrendering points to 25 per cent of coaches if you do.
Andrew Brayshaw (Freo)
$482,700 MID, Avg: 97.6
Brayshaw’s quiet outings against Carlton and Hawthorn - when he tagged Tom Mitchell in the second half after being closely monitored by James Worpel - have presented KFC SuperCoaches with a serious bargain. The rising Docker is more than $60k cheaper than his starting price despite recording scores of 117, 125 and 132 in the opening five rounds. The Dockers have their next three games at home and Brayshaw’s midfield minutes are only going to increase with Adam Cerra sidelined due to injury. If you can’t afford the big dogs such as Clayton Oliver, at just under $600k, you could do much worse than making Brayshaw your first midfield upgrade.
WHEN TO BUY: Now - or next week at the latest. The Dockers take on North Melbourne in Round 6 and Brayshaw is a strong chance to eclipse his breakeven of 117. His price won’t jump much unless he posts a score in excess of 150, though. Brayshaw will have even greater emphasis on him with Cerra missing
Jordan Ridley (Ess)
$588,900 DEF, Avg: 112.6
The top defender of the year, who seemed unattainable to so many teams, is suddenly a top trade target. Ridley is still the No. 1 defender of 2021, despite scoring a concussion-affected 31 against Brisbane. Ridley was out of reach for many teams at $615k last round but his price dropped by almost $30k and his breakeven has soared to 190. He’s going to miss ANZAC Day but will almost certainly return to face Carlton in Round 8. Start planning to add him to your team for about $540k.
WHEN TO BUY: KFC SuperCoach Plus projections have Ridley bottoming out at about $536k after his next two games. That would mean you can get him cheaper than his starting price ahead of Round 9 - a huge result for those who thought they had been priced out of the year’s must-have backman.
Dustin Martin (Rich)
$521,800 FWD-MID, Avg: 108.6
If you’re patient, there almost always comes a point of the season where Martin becomes available for under $500k. He ran rings around Carlton in Round 1, as he always does, then backed up that performance with a 120. But since then, Martin has gone 85, 88 and 92. With a breakeven of 125 heading into Round 6, and a tough match-up against the undefeated Demons, those who bucked the trend by starting without Martin will be eyeing him off for a projected price of $515k next week. He’s in almost 70 per cent of teams so you won’t want to miss another outing like his Round 1 demolition of the Blues.
WHEN TO BUY: Round 7 looms as the perfect time to add Martin at what should be his cheapest price - pending his score against Melbourne. If he scores anything less than his projected 110, bide your time for a bit longer.
Jake Lloyd (Syd)
$596,400 DEF, Avg: 106.6
The Sydney defender has been as solid as ever, starting 2021 with scores of 98, 124, 116, 95 and 100. But those KFC SuperCoaches who overlooked Lloyd for their starting team because of the concern around his inflated price, on the back of last year’s top-end scaling, look to have made the right call. Owners didn’t make the wrong one, mind you, with Lloyd the third-ranked KFC SuperCoach defender after five rounds, but with a Round 6 breakeven of 154, the ball magnet could fall to around $550k.
WHEN TO BUY: SC Plus tell us that even if Lloyd’s scoring follows a similar trend over the next three weeks, with tallies of 95, 109 and 103, he will be available for less than $550k ahead of Round 9.
Patrick Dangerfield (Geel)
$611,900 FWD-MID, Avg: 83.5
Look away if you held Dangerfield. Following a 75-point return – thanks, largely, due to six clangers and a very poor 45 per cent kicking efficiency – coupled with 92 points in Round 1, the Geelong star is set for a big fall. With a huge breakeven of 191, Dangerfield will lose close to $40k even with a KFC SuperCoach ton in Round 6 — that’s if he plays, with reports an ankle injury he suffered late against the Kangaroos could be worse than first thought. Put him on your watch list — at some point, he will be a must-have in a shallow forward pool.
WHEN TO BUY: This is set to be one of the biggest KFC SuperCoach questions over the next month. We’ll get a better idea of his likely bottomed-out price after this week’s clash with the Eagles but, like Lloyd, there’s a chance he’ll be available for around $550k ahead of games against St Kilda and Gold Coast in Rounds 9 and 10. Then again, if anyone can reach a 191-point breakeven …
Tom Mitchell (Haw)
$549,400 MID, Avg: 103.2
The prolific Hawk has had at least 32 disposals in four of his five games this season but those big tallies haven’t provided the KFC SuperCoach points his owners would be hoping for. Mitchell scored 107 from 38 disposals against Fremantle and 109 from 37 disposals against Richmond. His latest score of 76 from 32 disposals against Melbourne will be of the greatest concern and the 2018 Brownlow medallist is projected to be available for $550k or less after Hawthorn’s Round 12 bye.
WHEN TO BUY: Do you really want to? Mitchell is going to be cheap, sure, but his big possession numbers aren’t always translating to KFC SuperCoach points this year. He’s only gone above 110 once in the opening five rounds. If you’re still keen, he’s projected to be about $520k heading into Round 8. You might want to wait an extra week though as the Hawks have North Melbourne in Round 9.
Christian Petracca (Melb)
$577,500 MID, Avg: 105.4
If you’ve already got Oliver, his star teammate is also one to keep an eye on. Petracca, who averaged huge 117 points per game in 2020, lead the competition for clangers in the opening three rounds and posted scores of 98, 92 and 83 as a result. But the powerful midfielder has put a halt to his price fall, posting back-to-back KFC SuperCoach tons. Petracca has booted four goals in the past two matches and recorded a season-low four clangers against the Hawks, along with a season-high 12 score involvements, despite copping close attention from Worpel.
WHEN TO BUY: With a breakeven of 84, Petracca has bottomed out in price, so this is the week to get him at his cheapest. But the Tigers await at the MCG.
Josh Kelly (GWS)
$539,600 MID, Avg: 95.2
Kelly kicked the match-winning goal in the Sydney Derby, and finished with 26 disposals and 474 metres gained. But he failed to reach three figures, again stuck in the 90s for the fourth time this season. The smooth-moving left-footer isn’t part of the Giants first-choice centre bounce rotation this year and he’s spent more than half of his game-time forward. His contested-possession rate of 31.1 per cent is the lowest it’s been since 2015 – and he’s lost $76k off his price tag - as a result.
WHEN TO BUY: Maybe the question should be, do we bother? Because in the current role, Kelly is nowhere near the top-eight scoring midfielders in KFC SuperCoach this year. But with his price set to fall again this round, on the back of a 128-point breakeven, if there is a change, Josh Kelly at less than $500k is a bargain in anybody’s book.
SUPERCOACH PLUS: 11 THINGS YOU NEED TO KNOW FOR ROUND 6
Steele Sidebottom (Coll)
$492,900 FWD, Avg: 77.5
The Collingwood veteran’s 93 points against the Eagles saw his price take another $49k hit, bringing his total fall in 2021 to $95k. Sidebottom’s highest score for the year corresponded with Taylor Adams’ absence from the midfield and season-high clearance and contested possession numbers. But, after recording 20 in his opening three matches, Sidebottom’s one clanger was just as important. In Rounds 3 and 4, he hit the target with just 14 of his 34 kicks, resulting in KFC SuperCoach scores of 51 and 79 despite disposal tallies of 30 and 28. Is it a sign of things to come?
WHEN TO BUY: If you think it is, Sidebottom, who averaged 109 points per game last year, is ripe for the picking in a very shallow premium forward bunch over the next few weeks. A Round 6 breakeven of 116 means his price may dip again, so the percentage play is to watch him closely again on ANZAC Day.
Shai Bolton (Rich)
$421,700 FWD-MID, Avg: 84.4
With so much forward line premium carnage, KFC SuperCoaches are scrambling to come up with a perfect mix for their six forward spots. Josh Dunkley has been the top dog so far, with Taylor Walker and Jack Ziebell the No. 2 and No. 3 ranked forwards. Whether that continues for a full 23 rounds is anyone’s guess. Bolton is currently the 20th-ranked forward for total points, but is averaging 98.2 when you remove his score of 29 against Sydney. That would rank him equal sixth with Jarman Impey. If you trust him not to throw in another stinker like his effort against the Swans, it’s time to jump on.
WHEN TO BUY: Now or never. That might be a bit drastic, but if you want to get him at his lowest price point, this is the week. Bolton’s Round 3 score of 29 has dropped out of his price cycle and his breakeven has crashed to 27. It’s now whether you can trust him to continue his scoring of the past two weeks, when he’s posted consecutive scores of 110.
OTHER INJURED GUNS TO WATCH
Adam Cerra (Frem)
$451,100, Mid, Average: 87, Breakeven: 129
Jeremy Howe (Coll)
$475,800, Def, Average: 79, Breakeven: 184
Dan Houston (Port)
$514,800, Def, Average: 99, Breakeven: 137
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Originally published as KFC SuperCoach 2021 Round 6 trade guide: Role change winners and losers, top trade targets
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