KFC SuperCoach 2020: Sam Simpson, the rookie influx, Round 6 trades and the best captain options
Geelong’s Sam Simpson scored 112 KFC SuperCoach points on Thursday night. But what does it mean for your team? The Phantom looks at how the rookie influx will affect Round 6 trades and short-term plans. Plus the verdict on Neale’s VC score.
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If they weren’t already, the next trades you make in KFC SuperCoach will be the most crucial of the season.
With rookie-price Cat Sam Simpson ($123k MID) tallying a game-high 27 disposals, 13 contested possessions and 112 SuperCoach points in his first game since 2018 against the Lions, one of those trades must be saved for him.
Who?
Don’t worry, many KFC SuperCoaches were asking the same on Thursday night.
The 22-year-old spent three years on Geelong’s rookie list, after being drafted at pick No. 53 in the 2016 rookie draft, playing six senior games, five of them in 2017.
But the skilful midfielder dominated in the VFL last season, posting six SuperCoach tons and averaging 91 points per game to win Geelong’s best-and-fairest.
As a result, he found his way onto the Cats’ senior list for 2020 and starred in his first appearance for the year through the middle, after early hamstring injuries to Mitch Duncan and Quinton Narkle.
They will have scans on Friday but with the pair likely to be sidelined and, after such an influential performance, Simpson’s time in the midfield should continue.
Simpson’s score is likely to bring a Round 7 breakeven of around -60 and a potential cash injection of more than $140k over the next two weeks.
And, given what we saw on Thursday – even if it’s only been one game – he could be the reliable on-field midfield rookie KFC SuperCoaches have been looking for.
Round 6 #supercoach Price Projection* - Sam Simpson
— Brice Mitchell (@bricemitchell) July 9, 2020
Start Price $123.9k
R5BE 25
R6Score 112
R6BE -63
ProjScore 80
R7:$124k->$188k (+$64k)
R8:$188k->$261k (+$73k)
R9:$261k->$300k (+$39k)
R10:$300k->$329k (+$29k)
R11:$329k->$349k (+$21k)
R12:$349k->$364k (+$15k) NewBE 56
*approx https://t.co/CZVrHgt3lR
All four were terrific KFC SuperCoach scorers at junior level.
Young Tiger Bull Riley Collier-Dawkins ($123k MID), if he makes the final cut, and injury-plagued Adelaide defender Andrew McPherson ($123k DEF) are also ones to watch.
And Demon Harley Bennell ($123k MID), who is still on the bubble after being omitted after one match, is back to take on the Suns.
So, is Tiger Jake Aarts ($123k MID) really worth jumping on this week?
The mature-age rookie, who averaged 84 points in the VFL last year, was impressive on debut, finishing with 76 points against Melbourne.
And with Richmond’s injury crisis, his short-term job security is rock solid.
If you need the immediate cash injection or want to start building a war chest for, say, Max Gawn, he’s still a viable option.
But, given next week is looking like a great double-downgrade week, a trade to immediately improve your team ahead of Friday’s lockout this round could be back on the cards.
Remember, while he won’t play against the Hawks, Tyler Brown won’t lose any value this week.
Another thing to consider is the chance of a condensed fixture for the next block of matches, with the AFL considering having clubs play on an average of four-and-a-half day breaks to squeeze an extra two games in while the Victorian teams are in hubs.
It means bench depth – even in the ruck - and dual-position players are vital.
Of course, if this goes ahead, there should be even more rookie-price options available, given club are likely spread the workload within their squads.
But, for The Phantom, it means, unless he’s picked, carrying Ben Cavarra on the bench may no longer be viable.
Cavarra to Rankine may not make me any money but it might prevent a number of donuts going forward.
There’s much to still play out – and more analysis to be done – but just keep it all in mind when making your final Round 6 trades.
OTHER TEAM NEWS
After overcoming a pre-season injury, former Saint Blake Acres ($383,400 MID-FWD) will play his first game for the Dockers, against his hold side, on Saturday.
The 24-year-old posted a score of 109 in his one Marsh Series appearance and is likely to command a permanent midfield role under Justin Longmuir.
“He’ll play on the wing for us,” Longmuir confirmed on Thursday,
“We really just want to settle him down and make him a one-position player.”
Acres played as lead-up target and running half-forward for most of 2019, but there was a number of glimpses of what he can do in the midfield at the Saints, too.
In the first five rounds of 2018, the 191cm Acres averaged 24 disposals, 10 contested possessions, eight score involvements and 106 SuperCoach points per game, playing as a pure wingman.
And there was a similar four-game stretch, which saw the West Australian average 24 disposals and 105 points in 2016.
He’s one to keep in mind.
And what does it mean for the role of popular KFC SuperCoach forward Brett Bewley?
Hopefully it doesn’t change much but keep a close eye on the left-footer, who has added more than $100k to his price tag, this weekend.
A straight swap to young Bulldogs star Bailey Smith, who is likely to fall to around $420k if he plays after last week’s concussion-affected three-point score, is on the cards in a few rounds anyway.
In a concern for Josh Kelly owners, Cam Sutcliffe will play for the Power on Sunday, replacing Tom Rockliff, who has been left out.
Popular rookie-price Swan Justin McInerney has also missed out on the final team in a big blow to KFC SuperCoaches, following the omission of Tyler Brown and Trent Rivers on Thursday.
Make sure you have your bench sorted and, like I said above, although not a must-do considering what’s coming, Aarts is an option if you need it.
ROUND 6 CAPTAINS
Two popular VC options Lachie Neale (134) and Patrick Dangerfield (146) went big on Thursday night and, if we’re following the standard cut-off of 130, you should be taking either score.
Sure, you may not lose out on much by giving Brodie Grundy or Tom Mitchell the captain’s armband on Friday night. But there’s not a lot to gain either.
If you take Neale’s VC score and Grundy records 150 against the Hawks, you will only lose the 16-point difference - not doubled.
In Round 4, I suggested overlooking Grundy’s 135 but that was because I was predicting Neale to push the double SuperCoach ton. I’m not expecting Grundy or Gawn to reach those heights this week.
But, if you are a risk-taker or you’re fielding a zero in Round 6, these are your options
Tom Mitchell (Haw)
V Collingwood, Friday night
It wasn’t quite the 140-point score from the previous week, thanks, largely to five clangers, but Mitchell was strong at the contested again in Round 5, finishing with an equal-team-high 11 contested possessions and six clearances. Mitchell appears more confident in his sore shoulder and his scoring history against the Magpies makes for impressive reading. In three appearances against Collingwood as a Hawk, the 27-year-old has posted scores of 167, 128 and 158. And Mitchell’s career-highs in disposals (54) and contested possessions (27) came in the 167-point performance of 2018. Brodie Grundy is the safer call but I don’t mind Mitchell, if you’re trying to play catch-up.
Brodie Grundy (Coll)
V Hawthorn, Friday night
The Collingwood big man dominated Ben McEvoy, who was back in the ruck for the Hawks in the second half last week, in 2019 but Grundy’s 95-point performance against McEvoy and Hawthorn in Round 1, 2018 was his lowest for the year. But I’m not doubting him in Round 5. Grundy has posted scores of 135 and 157 in his recent trips to Giants Stadium and he dominated on Friday night last week.
Max Gawn (Melb)
V Gold Coast, Saturday
Gawn’s three-round average of 163 is 15 points higher than Neale’s – yep he’s flying. But Jarrod Witts will be a bigger challenge this week with the Gold Coast skipper conceding scores of 70, 85, 91, 87 and 107 in his five matches this year. And in the pair’s last meeting, in Round 8 last year, Gawn finished with just 109 points – his second-lowest non-injury affected score of the season.
Todd Goldstein (NM)
V Essendon, Saturday night
Like Grundy last week, expect the North Melbourne big man, who is averaging a huge 141 points per game this year, to get the better of Essendon’s second-choice ruckman Andrew Phillips on Saturday night.
Josh Kelly (GWS)
V Port Adelaide, Sunday
After a strong start to the year, the Lions taught Port Adelaide’s midfield a lesson last week and the Giants have the quality to do the same on Sunday. And, despite less centre bounce action, it’s likely to be the damaging left-footer, who has posted consecutive scores of 120 or more, leading the way. Power tagger Cam Sutcliffe is now a concern here, though.
Jake Lloyd (Syd)
V Richmond, Sunday
The Sydney playmaker is in form, averaging 120 points since Round 1, and the Tigers have been giving up plenty to opposition defenders this year.
Round 5 v Melbourne
Michael Hibberd 103
Steven May 118
Round 4 v St Kilda
Hunter Clark 90
Ben Long 91
Round 3 v Hawthorn
James Sicily 128
Blake Hardwick 101
Round 2 v Collingwood
Jeremy Howe 126
Jack Crisp 108
Brayden Maynard 105
Round 1 v Carlton
Sam Docherty 117
Sam Petrevski-Seton 113
AVOID
Nat Fyfe v St Kilda
The Fremantle skipper looks set to play but given the injury and a potential head-to-head clash with Jack Steele, I’d be cautious.
Travis Boak v GWS
He’s the fourth-ranked KFC SuperCoach scorer in the competition but Giants tagger Matt de Boer is circling this week.
Andrew Gaff v Adel
It’s a similar story for Gaff who could receive close attention from Adelaide’s Ben Keays, who put the clamp on Dockers star Michael Walters last week.
BY THE NUMBERS
Average past 3 v opponent
Clayton Oliver (Melb) 155
Tom Mitchell (Haw) 151
Matt Crouch (Adel) 143
Patrick Dangerfield (Geel) 143
Stephen Coniglio (GWS) 125
Max Gawn (Melb) 123
Zach Merrett (Ess) 121
Jack Macrae (WB) 119
Josh P. Kennedy (Syd) 118
James Sicily (Haw) 117