Mick McGuane on the tough list changes Carlton must make to get back in the flag window
Recruiting Eddie Betts was a mistake, and the Blues can’t afford to let emotion get the better of them this year, says analyst Mick McGuane. He names the players who should stay and go plus a surprise trade target.
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It’s time for Carlton to rediscover the ruthless, hard-edge approach that made the Blues such a powerful club during the 1970s and ’80s.
They haven’t played finals since 2013 when Mick Malthouse’s team was gifted a berth following the Essendon supplements scandal.
Their last Grand Final appearance was 1999, and their last flag was a quarter of a century ago, in 1995.
Is it any wonder Carlton fans are so impatient?
Their goalless second half against Collingwood last week was embarrassing when you consider how much was at stake, and they suffered another fadeout against GWS.
The Blues must create a premiership model for the future. On the back of that, brave calls must be made.
WHO STAYS, WHO GOES
Kade Simpson turns 37 next year.
As good as he has been, the next three games provide an opportunity to farewell him in the right manner. He has been an incredible servant of the club, but won’t be a part of the next Carlton premiership side, so it is time to make a tough decision.
The one-year romance with Eddie Betts should be over, too.
I know the temptation will be to give him another season, but sentiment shouldn’t get in the way if Carlton is serious about moving forward.
It tickles the heart to see Betts finish his career where it started, but let’s not skirt around the issue … the Blues should have gone harder at Dan Butler during the last trade period. Instead, the emotional attachment between Betts and David Teague won out.
The Blues missed out on Tom Papley last year, and went for Betts, when they could possibly have had Butler – an All Australian contender in 2020 – for years to come. You cannot lose sight of the future when making list decisions.
Simpson and Betts have made a big mark on the game, and just because their playing days could be over, that doesn’t mean they should be lost to the club. Matthew Kreuzer is 31.
His body has let him down in recent seasons.
We might not see him in a Blues jumper again, but I would offer him a base contract and give him a ruck-coaching role to work with Tom De Koning, Marc Pittonet and Harry McKay.
Marc Murphy is contracted and will be a part of the action next year, but that could easily be his final season.
Levi Casboult, who turns 31 next March, should be retained as a back-up key forward/defender. As harsh as it sounds, I don’t have him in my best 22 going forward.
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IS CRIPPS CARLTON’S KRYPTONITE?
Patrick Cripps’ strength is becoming Carlton’s Achilles heel.
For all the positives he brings – notably, his ability around stoppage to win clearances – there are some glaring issues that should be concerning Teague and midfield coach John Barker.
Scott Pendlebury nullified Cripps’ impact at stoppages last week, along with some help from Tyler Brown, and that’s what opposition teams tend to do.
They try to dilute his clearance dominance.
He is still averaging 6.5 clearances per game – a healthy return – but is not getting enough creativity from those exits because he is under enormous pressure when he wins first possession.
Cripps’ ability to defensively spread and reference an opposition midfielder is non-existent at the moment.
He is putting too much weight of responsibility on his teammates.
Two are doing the work of three in terms of defensive transition, and that’s not what a professional team needs.
It brings into question his two-way running ability, particularly out of congestion. He is tough and resilient, but how far does he run?
His GPS data would make for interesting reading.
I hazard a guess he wouldn’t get over 12km a game.
His ability to kick set-shot goals is a huge concern, especially when comparing him to Tigers star Dustin Martin.
Cripps has had the chance to hit the scoreboard at important times numerous times this year – and missed. He must get better with this aspect of his game.
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There has been talk of an injury all year.
We know he had scans after hurting his knee against Collingwood, but was cleared of any damage.
For the growth of this team, I’d like to see Cripps spend more time forward, perhaps a 60/40 split.
Currently it’s out of whack at 93 per cent mid and 7 per cent forward. It would preserve his body long-term as well.
We saw Greg Williams adapt his role and bring a selfless element to the Blues’ team in 1995, and it produced the ultimate success.
Cripps doesn’t need to be the be-all-and-end-all midfielder; he just needs to do what is best for the team.
FORWARD SET-UP
Looking ahead to next year, I would use Charlie Curnow, McKay and Mitch McGovern as the three tall forwards.
The Blues should shelve any idea of getting Curnow up around the ball next year – as they have flirted with in the past – and lock him in as a deep forward.
He hasn’t got the footy smarts to play in the midfield and doesn’t see the game in 360 degrees.
Don’t get seduced by his power and athleticism. Keep him deep as he is the marquee forward the club needs.
McKay must become the forward/second ruckman to De Koning.
He should embrace the chance to spend some more time in the ruck, forming a partnership with De Koning.
McGovern must be challenged to get fit – and stay fit – increasing his workrate in the process.
Jack Martin is a conduit between defence and attack.
He is good overhead, but shouldn’t shirk his goalkicking responsibility.
Zac Fisher is a clever player and can continue to develop.
TARGETS
Carlton’s off-season priority must centre on a small forward capable of applying pressure and kicking goals.
Papley has had another strong season and is reportedly a little more settled in Sydney than he was 12 months ago, but he’s gettable. So go and get him!
If Papley opts to stay, Hawthorn’s Luke Breust should be spoken to and I would be entertaining West Coast’s Jack Petruccelle, who is a Victorian, and who’s been unable to break into the Eagles’ line-up this year.
It might be a situation where the Blues have to put one or more of their young players on the trade table.
Who’s not expendable? Not many.
Lochie O’Brien might be an option and the Blues could effectively move on a few players on $300,000 contracts, in an effort to chase Papley and Giant Zac Williams.
Williams has a two-fold ability to be a running half-back as well as a midfielder, as we saw in last year’s preliminary final.
The Blues should exercise some “moneyball” options and look to raid the rookie lists of rival AFL clubs. That means some tough calls must be made on borderline players.
Michael Gibbons is a good story, but doesn‘t fit the long-term plan, while Matthew Kennedy is too slow and Cam Polson, Hugh Goddard, Callum Moore, Ben Silvagni and Darcy Lang are not going to be a part of the club’s next flag.
Over to you, Blues list manager Nick Austin.
Get aggressive, otherwise the Blues will be left behind again!
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Originally published as Mick McGuane on the tough list changes Carlton must make to get back in the flag window