Moneyball special: Your club’s obvious and left-field 2020 trade targets
The 2020 trade period will be the craziest we’ve seen, and the biggest shock could be a player who walked away from the game. Get the inside word on your club’s trade moves and who could be up for grabs.
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The one-of-a-kind 2020 AFL season will be over for 10 clubs in a matter of weeks.
Then attention will quickly turns to what could be the biggest trade frenzy we’ve seen.
Who could be up for grabs at your club? Who should your team be trying to poach from a rival?
After the AFL locked in an October 24 Grand Final at the Gabba free agency is set to open on October 30 with the trade period kicking off on November 2.
Trade experts Jay Clark, Jon Ralph and Glenn McFarlane name your club’s obvious and not-so-obvious trade conundrums, who might be squeezed out and who is in need of a new home — scroll down for your one-stop trade shop.
ADELAIDE
1. The Crows’ biggest trade conundrum
Brad Crouch isn’t really a conundrum. Move him on at exactly the right price to get a first-round compo pick from a rival like Geelong or St Kilda. Then match the contract offer if you can’t get the wink-wink, nudge-nudge heads-up from the AFL that the pick will slide in after the No.1 overall selection in this year’s draft.
Crouch returned from injury against Hawthorn and put in exactly the kind of performance to show suitors he’s top-shelf: 27 possessions, eight clearances, five centre square clearances, five score involvements, four tackles. He’s never going to kick it like Darren Jarman, but he’s going to make your side a heck of a lot better.
2. Get the South Aussie home?
The Crows are monitoring young GWS midfielder Jackson Hately ahead of the upcoming trade period, but won’t prioritise bringing him back to South Australia ahead of their plan to target the draft. The Central District’s prospect is out of contract at season’s end and the 19-year-old hasn’t been in the Giants side since Round 17. An All-Australian for South Australia’s victorious side at the 2018 Under-18 National Championships, Hately was picked by the Giants with the No. 14 pick of the draft. Multiple clubs have been asking about the 190cm big bodied midfielder with no new contract signed, with the Crows a suitor, given the engine room is bereft of tall, big-bodied midfielders.
3. The left-field trade target they could consider
Taylor Walker’s name has been thrown around as a contender for a rival like Port Adelaide, but he wants to stay and Matthew Nicks wants to keep him. Not many clubs trade for a third forward of his vintage.
4. A player who can’t get opportunity who might need a chance elsewhere.
Rory Atkins is already out of this place, headed for the Suns on a deal of as long as five seasons. Kyle Hartigan wants to stay but on a two-year deal with rivals asking about his availability.
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5. A player who might be squeezed out
Bryce Gibbs will meet with the club in the not-too-distant future to decide if he takes a payout for 2021 or fights for his career.
How far do the Crows want to go with their rebuild? Will it extend to players like Matt Crouch or can they get a mid-range pick for Tom Lynch, who turns 30 in coming weeks?
BRISBANE LIONS
1. Trade conundrum
Another key forward is on the menu. They have been linked to Charlie Dixon and Jeremy Cameron and could get Peter Wright on the cheap. Eric Hipwood and Daniel McStay could do with some help in the forward 50m and Oscar McInerney is set to assist veteran Stef Martin in the ruck. They have got some salary cap room.
2. Left-field target
The Lions would love to add to their onball mix. Nakia Cockatoo could be a punt worth taking if the Cats only put a short-term deal on the table for the injury-plagued midfielder. The Lions have plenty of hard nuts, but Cockatoo has X-factor.
3. Who could look elsewhere
Alex Witherden could become a star across half-back but has fallen out of favour at times this season, playing only six games. Rival clubs will keep him on their radar but he is locked away at the Lions until the end of next year. He would have to demand a trade which is unlikely.
4. Squeezed out?
Allen Christensen’s time looks up at Brisbane. Signed a one-year contract extension for this season, but is yet to get a look in this year. Premiership Cat would hope for another chance.
CARLTON
1. Trade conundrum
Carlton had the most salary cap space of any club in the competition this year, but do they have enough for Zac Williams AND Tom Papley?
Williams is a free agent and wants a packet - $800,000 or more. So if they will back up the truck they are a realistic chance.
But the road to playing Tom Papley out of the goalsquare in Round 1 next year is paved with potholes. Their current No.7 pick would be pick 9 at the very least when compo picks and bids for Brad Crouch and Jamarra Ugle-Hagan slot in.
The Blues would have to offer a variety of picks and players that would include that pick 7 and perhaps Paddy Dow, Caleb Marchbank and others. That’s even if the Swans find a way to let him go.
Tom de Koning is exactly the kind of athletic ruck/forward Sydney would love, but he is the future at Carlton.
2. Left-field target
The Blues don’t want to play Zac Fisher in the midfield and have told him he needs to make the grade as a small forward. Could he figure in a trade for Papley given he has at times looked a star of the future with his slashing left foot and explosive sidestep from stoppages? He’s too good to play as a permanent forward.
3. Who could look elsewhere
Caleb Marchbank’s name has been thrown up already this week. How does he fit into the Blues backline with Liam Jones and Jacob Weitering? He is only 23 and coming off a knee injury this year but Jones is 29. Surely the Blues would want to hold onto him but rivals could push hard.
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4. Squeezed out?
Carlton has too many talls to play in one side. Charlie Curnow, Harry McKay, de Koning, Matthew Kreuzer, Marc Pittonet, Levi Casboult, Mitch McGovern. Kreuzer will likely get a new deal but would he appeal to a club like the Western Bulldogs as a stop-gap solution while Tim English matures? He ticks the boxes for a season or perhaps two as an unrestricted free agent.
COLLINGWOOD
1. Trade conundrum
Mason Cox recently hit the trigger for a fourth year — on more than $500,000 per season — but do the Magpies really want to keep him? He was out of favour for part of 2020 before winning his spot back in a undermanned team in recent weeks. Before he signed his last contract during the 2017 finals series, he attracted interest from Brisbane and, to a lesser extent, Essendon. If a new suitor emerges for the right price, would Cox consider an option to extend his career even further elsewhere?
2. Left-field target
Collingwood is now more confident than ever it can keep both Jordan De Goey and Darcy Moore, but the Pies’ salary cap is squeezed to its optimum level. A few mid-tier players will undoubtedly have to make away. Jaidyn Stephenson is locked into the club until the end of 2021, but has endured a tough year, having been overlooked or dropped at times. He’s likely to stay, but if the right offer came along — and it helped out the cap — who knows what might happen, though it would be a big gamble for the Pies.
3. Who could look elsewhere
Hard to believe inside midfielder Brayden Sier has played only nine games since his 2018 Grand Final appearance. Magpie fans were surprised when he was overlooked earlier in the season, with the club going with Rupert Wills. Sier was back in favour for three rounds from Round 9 onwards before a quad injury caused another interruption. The 22-year-old is contracted until the end of next year, but would have more than a few suitors if he was available.
4. Squeezed out?
Ben Reid, Travis Varcoe and Levi Greenwood have provided great service but their deals run out at the end of the season. Tim Broomhead and Lynden Dunn made emotional comebacks against Adelaide, but are unlikely to win new deals.
ESSENDON
1. Trade conundrum
The Bombers remain determined to keep Joe Daniher and will match a free agency bid unless it is astronomically high. That would allow the Bombers to force a trade for Daniher, as the Crows did with Geelong over Paddy Dangerfield. Essendon will want either Tom McCartin from the Swans or their top pick plus more in a trade if Daniher still elects to go to Sydney. The free agency compensation would be either a pick at the end of the first round or a first rounder if someone makes a huge bid the Bombers can’t match.
2. Left-field target
The Bombers need a big-bodied onballer, such as Will Brodie, Jack Graham, Luke Dunstan or Jack Viney. And a back-up ruck key-forward such as Gold Coast’s Peter Wright. Ben Rutten would love some more midfield run to help pull off the Richmond-style game plan, too. An Isaac Smith-type would be perfect, if he is available.
3. Who could look elsewhere
Jayden Laverde could attract some attention as a hybrid forward-midfielder. He has had some injury issues and Kyle Langford has gone past him. St Kilda asked the question a couple of years back.
4. Squeezed out?
Speedster Conor McKenna could weigh up any opportunities if they come his way. He has lost his spot in the team and has endured a tough year. Either a fresh start is in order or he could go back home to Ireland.
FREMANTLE
1. Trade conundrum
Fremantle has a surplus of key defenders, they have just been mostly injured. There’s Alex Pearce, Griffin Logue, Brennan Cox, Joel Hamling plus rebounders Luke Ryan and Hayden Young. They might be prepared to move Hamling, given his injury issues, or part ways with Pearce for a hefty return, to secure a midfielder.
2. Left-field target
There is no doubt the Dockers need another strong inside clearance winner. Whether it is Luke Dunstan (St Kilda), Will Brodie (Gold Coast), Jack Graham (Richmond) or Jackson Hately (GWS), Fremantle has to get another big body into the engine room.
3. Who could look elsewhere
It’s hard to think that someone with as much talent as Jesse Hogan has been left on the outer. The former Melbourne goalkicker has struggled to break into the forward line this year and will be an intriguing proposition for the likes of Essendon and Geelong at trade time. Hasn’t fully settled in his move back home to Western Australia. What would he cost in a trade? Maybe a third-round pick.
4. Squeezed out?
Brandon Matera faces an uncertain future at Fremantle. The livewire goalkicker has managed only three goals from five games this year and doesn’t seem to be in Justin Longmuir’s plans. Unsure if he’d get another crack.
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GEELONG
1. Trade conundrum
The Cats have had an eye on Jeremy Cameron for years and are waiting to see if the gun goalkicker from Dartmoor in western Victoria re-signs at GWS. He’s a free agent so the Cats would give up nothing for him. He has had a modest 2020 season, but would help keep Geelong’s flag window wide open for years. Joe Daniher is Plan B.
2. Left-field target
With Joel Selwood in the twilight of his career, Adelaide free agent Brad Crouch would be a snug fit next to former teammate Paddy Dangerfield. Crouch won the Crows’ best-and-fairest last year averaging 30 disposals a game.
3. Who could look elsewhere
Charlie Constable and Lachie Fogarty are the two young hard nuts rival clubs are sniffing around. Both are craving some senior opportunities, but Tom Atkins and Brad Close have leapfrogged both of them.
4. Squeezed out?
How much faith have the Cats got in Nakia Cockatoo’s body? The electric midfielder has had a terrible run with injury but could have some currency on the trade table given the upside. Watch Brisbane circle.
GOLD COAST
1. Trade conundrum
Gold Coast needs key backs and running defenders with Rory Thompson’s knee unable to hold up, Pearce Hanley retired and Jarrod Harbrow getting on in years.
How many quality key backs are there not playing currently? Carlton’s Caleb Marchbank? Richmond’s Ryan Garthwaite?
Someone should have a five-year $3.5 million throw at the stumps on Noah Balta if only to drive up his price for the Tigers with a single year on his current deal. Why wouldn’t it be the Suns? What about David Astbury, out injured at the Tigers but facing an interesting battle with Balta for the full-back spot once he gets fit again.
2. Left-field target
Rory Laird is exactly the kind of leader, dashing half-back and midfield cover they need. Hand over a quality pick, let Adelaide pay some of his wage and he gets a chance at a premiership. But he has moved into the midfield recently at Adelaide, where he might be needed if Brad Crouch leaves.
The midfield will be stocked when Darwin’s Joel Jeffrey and Cairns-based Alex Davies arrive through their academies — both players would have been early draft selections if they were not already tied to the Suns.
3. Who could look elsewhere
Peter Wright’s significant wage is what is keeping him at the Suns right now, so even if the Suns have to pay some of his wage elsewhere until his deal is done that cap space will allow them to push harder into premiership mode. No point in keeping highly paid players on the list when they are running around in the twos with no immediate prospect of making a difference at AFL level.
4. Squeezed out?
Will Brodie is attracting interest from rivals including Essendon and offers are sure to come from more than one club. He has never played more than eight games in a season in his four years at the level but games like 25-possession, 10-tackle, six clearance effort against Patrick Cripps and the Blues have stuck in the memory of many recruiters.
GWS GIANTS
1. Trade conundrum
Young midfielder Jye Caldwell is the one they don’t want to lose. St Kilda will go hard behind the scenes to secure a man who could become the Saints’ best midfielder in a few years. The No.11 pick in the 2018 draft has established his spot in the team but is still out of contract.
2. Left-field target
What to do in the ruck? The Giants have veterans Shane Mumford and Sam Jacobs coming to the end and two young rucks in Kieran Briggs and Matt Flynn who aren’t quite ready. The Giants could do with a prime big man, but don’t have the cap space.
3. Who could look elsewhere
Jeremy Finlayson has delivered in some games but found himself out of the team. He is the kind of eye-catching goalkicker who could generate trade interest as the Giants weigh up how to apply more tackle pressure and retain the ball in the forward line. Do they need a Dan Butler type?
4. Squeezed out?
Jackson Hately won’t feel any sort of squeeze, but he’ll also be targeted. The South Australian hard nut is sure to be on Adelaide’s wish-list as he tries to work his way into the Giants’ first-choice midfield. Jacob Hopper, Tim Taranto, Josh Kelly and Stephen Coniglio rule the onball department.
HAWTHORN
1. Trade conundrum
First Alastair Clarkson has to want to bring young talent into the club. For every statement from the master coach about playing kids there are three more about how quick the club’s bounce can be and how hard it is to rebuild to through the compromised draft.
Surely the immediate success of their No.13 draft selection Will Day shows the way forward. Not only will he provide 15 years service, he doesn’t come at the $600-$800,000 price tag of players like Tom Mitchell, Jaeger O’Meara and Chad Wingard.
So is he prepared to move on James Frawley, get a compo pick for Isaac Smith, trade some 28-year-olds and absorb some years or pain? Where else will he get the draft picks to win a flag again?
2. Left-field target
Jack Gunston is exactly the kind of player, given his talent and age, that a ruthless Clarkson would have traded all those years ago when he was building his first premiership list.
He’s about to hit 29, likely not in the next premiership team, with real currency and more of a second or third tall than a genuine full-forward. But he and Luke Breust are their only hints of class in that forward line. Given Clarkson keeps talking about a quick bounce, it doesn’t seem likely he will pull the trigger on a player of his calibre.
3. Who could look elsewhere
Smith is in Hawthorn’s best side and has a decision to make on his future, but did the Hawks wait a year too long to get some currency out of him? They could have traded him to a club like the Dogs last year for a mid-rangepick but now he’s an unrestricted free agent and they would get very little as compensation.
4. Squeezed out?
The Hawks have a long list of players out of contract including Ben Stratton, Conor Nash, Conor Glass, Ricky Henderson, Paul Puopolo, Shaun Burgoyne, Daniel Howe and Darren Minchington. Ben Stratton is also out of contract but it’s hard to see how the Hawks would move on their current captain despite his diminishing output.
MELBOURNE
1. Trade conundrum
Gold Coast is seen to be in the box seat for Adelaide’s Rory Atkins, but the Demons are having their best crack at securing him. Melbourne is also chasing another wingman with speed, given the Adam Tomlinson experiment has morphed into him becoming a defender. Their forward issues appears to have been partly solved by Sam Weideman’s good form in attack.
2. Left-field target
The Demons are chasing speed on the outside. There have been murmurings about Angus Brayshaw, despite the fact he is locked in until the end of 2022. There has been some smoke, but is there any fire?
3. Who could look elsewhere
Given how many clubs are looking to get more speed into their line-ups, it seems natural that Jayden Hunt’s name comes up. He has played only three AFL games this year. Given Luke Jackson’s early impact as back-up big man to Max Gawn, is it time for Braydon Preuss to find a third club that can use his services more often?
4. Squeezed out?
Nathan Jones has been an absolute warrior for the Demons and could be in his final season at 32. Others under pressure to retain their spots include Mitch Brown, Kyle Dunkley and Alex Neal-Bullen.
NORTH MELBOURNE
1. Trade conundrum
How can the Kangaroos offload Jared Polec and the limit the damage they have to pay on his $700,000 long-term deal at another club? Polec has lost favour with coach Rhyce Shaw over his inability to play selfless team footy and he has spent part of the season out of the senior team. A move would see Polec — who was recruited to the Kangaroos by the previous coach Brad Scott — join a fourth club. The Kangaroos would have to pay part of his deal, which has three years to run. Kangaroos head of football Brady Rawlings recently refused to speculate on the future of Ben Brown, who is one of more than 20 out-of-contract players at the club. He would have a number of suitors. While his 2020 form was a shadow of his best, don’t forget he kicked 60-plus goals in his three previous seasons.
2. Left-field target
Hardly left field options, but the Kangaroos have focused their attention on Giants Zac Williams and Aidan Corr, who are restricted free agents. They were initially seen to be in the box seat for Williams, but their slide down the ladder might hurt their chances. The Kangaroos are keen to shore up their defence, which explains their strong interest in Corr.
3. Who could look elsewhere
Would a club be willing to take a chance on rising 30-year-old Majak Daw as a cheap back-up defender? Daw is unlikely to win a new deal with North Melbourne. All of his games this season have been in attack, but he has always looked better in the back half. It’s a longshot, but stranger things have happened.
4. Squeezed out?
Mason Wood was on the trade table last year, but looks likely to be squeezed out altogether after another frustrating season. Jamie Macmillan is another player who could be left out in the cold.
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PORT ADELAIDE
1. Trade conundrum
Gun onballer Ollie Wines is due to be paid in the vicinity of $900,000 a year in each of the next two seasons. Victorian clubs still believe he could be brought back home but Wines has recaptured his best form this year and could guide Port to a flag. Why would he leave?
2. Left-field target
Essendon speedster Orazio Fantasia was on the trade radar last year but the club wasn’t overly impressed with the way things turned out. Fantasia entertained the move to Port briefly, but stayed at Essendon. Would need a miracle to convince Port to bother a second time.
3. Who could look elsewhere
Sam Hayes is a talented ruckman who did his ACL in his first year at Port. The club rates him highly, but he is stuck behind Scott Lycett and Peter Ladhams. Unless one of them is moved on, he may have to consider other options.
4. Squeezed out?
Justin Westhoff will weigh up a retirement call at the end of the season after signing a one-year deal to play in 2020. Mitch Georgiades looks like an outstanding talent who is guaranteed a spot in Port’s senior team as a dangerous forward moving forward. Todd Marshall also developing, while Jack Watts is contracted for another season.
RICHMOND
1. Trade conundrum
Richmond is all about retention given their cap pressures, even if they have a bit more cap space with Alex Rance’s retirement. Hopefully at some stage Damien Hardwick can sit down over a cup of coffee in October and pitch a role for him again. It might see him back at training in February and playing 12-16 games, but a player about to turn 30 next month has too long a life to live and too much talent in him not to at least consider going around again.
2. Left-field target
Maurice Rioli is the priority from a draft perspective, with his cousin Daniel making clear on social media recently the small forward would choose his father’s AFL club even though he could also get to Fremantle through Maurice Sr’s service in the WAFL.
He isn’t considered likely to go in the top few rounds of the draft but has real upside and superb pedigree, so the Tigers will gleefully select him despite a lack of play this year.
3. Who could look elsewhere
Young ruck-forward Callum Coleman-Jones stuck fat last year when GWS came hard at him, and he might have to wait to see Toby Nankervis’s future before he decides where he fits into the state of affairs. The No.20 pick in the 2017 draft has huge potential but he’s third in the ruck pecking order and third in the key-position forward pecking order.
4. Squeezed out?
Nathan Broad wants a multi-year deal and is being pursued by Gold Coast. He was dropped last week but returned against Fremantle on Wednesday. Oleg Markov might have had to look for a new home but has found a spot at half-back in the past five games and with Bachar Houli still going strong but in the back end of his career, the Tigers should want to keep him.
ST KILDA
1. Trade conundrum
The Saints still have plenty of money in the kitty after their 2019 trade extravaganza. There was considerable interest in Brad Crouch last year, so why wouldn’t they have another crack at the Adelaide midfielder this year, given the belief they are right in the flag frame.
2. Left-field target
Industry sources suggests the Saints are interested in bringing some more speed into their line-up as well as potentially looking at a defender.
3. Who could look elsewhere
Luke Dunstan’s 2020 season has been ruined by a pectoral injury, but he is close to being available again. He has a deal until the end of next year, but would the promise of more game time elsewhere prompt the 25-year-old to seek a change? Having played the opening game of the season, he was dropped for the next game, before suffering his injury in a scratch match.
4. Squeezed out?
Nathan Brown has already played his last game. Shane Savage, Jonathan Marsh and Matthew Parker are out of contract at season’s end. Leadership group member Dylan Roberton is contracted until the end of next year, but he hasn’t played AFL footy since Round 1.
SYDNEY
1. Trade conundrum
Joe Daniher. If they wanted him last year, why not this year with Buddy Franklin battered and bruised. Might have to hit him up with $1 million over five seasons. There is massive risk in that but Tom McCartin is developing as a centre half-back and Nick Blakey’s probably a wingman or flanker. If not Joe, how do they reconfigure their forward line?
2. Left-field target
Do they need another ruck? Sam Naismith is still keen to play on and contracted despite another ACL tear. A Toby Nankervis-style ruckman as insurance at the least and a lead ruckman at best just makes a heck of a lot of sense. Nank is still only 26 and while he’s not a Nic Nat-style leaper he’s been good enough to play in two flags with Richmond as an elite second-effort ruckman since arriving as a bargain trade from the Swans.
3. Who could look elsewhere
Ben Ronke kicked seven goals in his third game and 24 goals in his first 18 games but has been injured or out of form since. Clubs want speed and goal power and pressure from small forwards and he has a lot of those commodities.
4. Squeezed out?
Ryan Clarke and Sam Gray have produced only modest output this year as players who arrived from rival clubs in recent times. Clarke has played six games and Gray seven for a single goal. With Sydney set to recruit two NGA academy players in long-kicking midfielder Braeden Campbell and Errol Gulden, a 172cm speedster set to start his career as a small forward, they might move on to free up list space.
WEST COAST
1. Trade conundrum
How can the Eagles “buy” back into the 2020 draft after being forced to pay full premium for Tim Kelly last October, including this year’s first round pick? It won’t be an easy task. But if Adam Simpson can test the waters by offering up a mid-tier player, West Coast might secure a better draft hand.
2. Left-field target
The Eagles absolutely love Geelong young gun Jordan Clark, but the Cats would be reluctant to let the native West Australian return home. Clark has played only three games this season, with his season interrupted by a shoulder injury in Round 7. He is contracted to Geelong until the end of 2022 and is unlikely to leave. But expect the Eagles to at least make the request.
3. Who could look elsewhere
Jack Petruccelle hasn’t had any luck in 2020. He was dropped after playing the first three rounds for the Eagles and suffered a hamstring injury in a scratch match in July. The 21-year-old, who played 21 games last year, said earlier this year he couldn’t see himself returning home to Victoria, despite coming out of contract this year. But if the right opportunity arises, he might consider it.
4. Squeezed out?
West Coast’s ruck stocks run deep now, so that might push 2018 premiership player Nathan Vardy out. Nic Naitanui is in All-Australian form, while Oscar Allen and Bailey Williams have been pinch-hitting in recent times. Tom Hickey has played only two matches, while Vardy has suffered an injury-interrupted period and hasn’t played AFL football since the middle of last year.
WESTERN BULLDOGS
1. Trade conundrum
Luke Beveridge doesn’t mind having a crack at the trade table and the Bulldogs clearly have some space in the salary cap. Matthew Lloyd says the Dogs need some help for young ruckman Tim English. Could a potentially delisted Matthew Kreuzer get his body right and offer two base-salary seasons as a mentor?
2. Left-field target
Beveridge has dismissed suggestions Lachie Hunter might be on the move, with Brisbane being one of the interested clubs. We’ve got to take him at his word on that. But there could be a few other options the Dogs could consider to strengthen their position.
Who could look elsewhere
Lin Jong has stayed loyal to the Bulldogs over the years and has had little luck with injury. Could a new home give him greater opportunities? Jackson Trengove is coming off a significant deal.
4. Squeezed out?
Premiership forward Tory Dickson has managed only one game this season and the soon-to-be 33-year-old comes off his one-year deal soon. Billy Gowers is another who is off contract and could be under pressure.
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Originally published as Moneyball special: Your club’s obvious and left-field 2020 trade targets