Jon Ralph lists 16 reasons why Carlton fans should be excited that the darkest days are finally behind them
Carlton is back in finals contention and Blues fans have been given plenty of reasons to believe their rebuild is finally over. That’s without Charlie Curnow, who will return in 2021 with a point to prove as David Teague’s revolution builds momentum.
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Carlton is in rarefied air for a side that has plumbed such depths in recent years.
The Blues’ perfect state of equilibrium — six wins, six losses, 756 points for and against — puts them in finals contention and 10th on the ladder.
They haven’t been that high on the ladder at the business end of a campaign since 2013, when they infamously qualified for finals from ninth.
Dare we say the Blues fans can finally smell what the Carlton hierarchy is cooking again?
On Friday night Carlton took care of business against Gold Coast like a battle-hardened side.
The Suns were tired off a four-day break and the greasy conditions made it a tough watch, but how often have the Blues slipped on a banana peel of a game like that before?
Instead their system held up, their talent shone through, their maturity was on show and they kept in the finals race.
Here are 16 reasons why Carlton’s never-ending rebuild might finally be coming to fruition:
1. The Blues have been in every game so far
The Blues average losing margin of 16 points is the equal-lowest losing margin of any side in the contest.
If they miss finals it might be the brain-fade against Hawthorn that will cost them.
They were up by 31 points early then going to sleep against a side that is fairly mediocre.
But if they can give up too many 30 points swings in-game – they were in Round 1 against Richmond, lost by three points to Port Adelaide, lost by a point to Melbourne, lost by only three goals to Carlton, were up against West Coast before umpires and the Eagles’ class intervened.
How often have Blues fans taken their kids to the football only for the youngsters to want to leave halfway through the second term?
When fans return next year, they will flock to the footy daring to believe if they aren’t singing the theme-song post match they will still be in the fight.
2. Their best footy stacks up against the best
The Blues are 2-4 against top-eight sides and if that doesn’t look too flash, they have beaten the best.
The Round 3 clash against Geelong, where they won clearances, won the contested possessions and won the tackle count, showed the game plan is sustainable.
If you think 2-4 doesn’t stack up well, the Dogs are 0-5 against top-eight sides.
The perfect test is Collingwood, up next after a nine-day break.
3. Sam Walsh just keeps getting better
Would any Carlton fan swap Sam Walsh for the much-spruiked kids like Bailey Smith and Connor Rozee?
No way, not for a player who has missed only a single game since his debut and is increasingly mixing big moments like his back-with-the-flight mark against Charlie Dixon with a superb mix of stats that matter.
He only attends an average of one centre bounce a game so could eventually move more into the centre square, but why would he when he is so effective on one wing.
He could kick it better, but he gets his footy in close, so that does his skew his kicking effectiveness.
4. The bloke on the other wing goes OK too
Ex-Saint Jack Newnes is no world beater.
But he has won a game off his own boot this year and including the miracle at Optus Stadium, has kicked 10 goals for the season to rank third for all wingmen behind the Cats star duo of Mitch Duncan and Sam Menegola.
And the fact he is in the side ahead of Lochie O’Brien shows that the Blues aren’t valuing talent ahead of performance.
They want to pick the best side regardless of the draft pick number affixed to a player’s resume.
It means Paddy Dow doesn’t get a game until he’s ready, it means Zak Fisher had to work his tail off to revamp his game as a small forward.
He wasn’t thrilled to be told he was going to play small forward instead of midfield.
But he called Teague during the lockdown to tell him he was all in on becoming that player and when he came in after good scratch match form he kicked four goals and made a difference against West Coast.
5. Carlton plays a modern brand of footy
Essendon is stuck between game plans, stuck between coaches.
Under David Teague, the Blues don’t dominate the league in any statistic.
But a team which once couldn’t keep the ball inside 50, and couldn’t kick a score under Brendon Bolton, has a sustainable and identifiable brand.
Teague says they want to play attacking footy which suits their list.
The Blues are fourth for contested possessions, fifth for clearance differential and have strong territory numbers.
They are fifth for time in forward half, so get the ball in there regularly, and lock it in as well given they are fourth for forward half intercepts.
The forward half stuff is what wins premierships and while they rank only ninth for offence and 12th for defence, it’s a platform to improve from.
6. Jack Martin is a jet
Carlton got him for free and paid a motza for him.
As in got him in the pre-season and paid him over a million in a front-ended deal this year.
But hasn’t he repaid them.
You have seen it with your eyes – he tackles to hurt, has clean hands, can effortlessly float between the midfield and forward line.
Champion Data has him with the second-most ranking points behind Isaac Heeney of general forwards and ahead of players like Toby Greene and Brad Ebert.
He is elite for score involvements and forward 50 marks inside 50 playing a split of 33% midfield, 67% forward.
Fittingly in indigenous round he played his best game against his old mob, a 144-ranking point, 21 possession, seven score-assist masterclass.
7. Eddie Betts is doing his bit
David Teague keeps talking about a team effort in which everyone holds up their end.
Eddie Betts dropped marks in the Darwin humidity like the ball was a cake of soap.
But he makes his teammates better.
In his six score assists on Friday night there was the dart of a kick to Harry McKay on the lead early, the left-footed touch kick to Michael Gibbons across his body from the boundary, the perfectly weighted pass for McKay to run onto from around the corner trapped around the boundary, then the sensational touch kick to McKay on the lead when deep in the pocket.
His pressure stuff is good – six, four and six tackles in the previous three weeks.
And on a night where every player battled a slippery ball he made his teammate better.
It doesn‘t guarantee him a spot on the list next year, but it’s a handy start.
8. Harry McKay is going to be some kind of footballer if he can put it all together
We have only seen glimpses of McKay given injuries and durability issues.
But his eight shots at goal against the Suns were the second-most from a forward in the competition this year.
He averages 1.9 forward 50 marks for the year, equal 11th in the comp.
And a player who comes in at 204cm is above average for forward 50 ground balls and contested marks.
He has the tank to get up to the wings when needed, equal 14th for marks on the lead.
So there is nothing he can’t do, having also kicked 32 goals last year.
He just needs to put it together for a sustained run.
9. They are finally getting bang for buck from their recruits
Mitch McGovern’s injuries are a continuing frustration but players like Will Setterfield are finding their feet.
This year he’s averaging 86 ranking points – up 25 per game from last season – and has career highs across the board, including a massive lift in contested possession.
Playing 21 per cent on a wing, 56 per cent as a forward and 23 per cent as a forward, he has notched three 100-point games in the past four weeks.
Matt Kennedy is averaging 77 ranking points too – the GWS boys aren’t flashy but they are getting it done.
10. David Teague is trying to drive cultural change
Teague has been big on his players not getting sucked into the silly taunting stuff this year.
As his CEO Cain Liddle said, he played footy a certain way where courage was throwing yourself in first and going back with the flight, not whacking a rival when his back was turned.
It hasn’t all gone to plan – they had to apologise when Michael Gibbons touched the bum of an Amazon cameraman after Friday’s game.
But a footy staffer nipped it in the bud immediately and Teague spoke to the players post-match to tell them it wasn’t on.
11. Jacob Weitering’s lockdown presence is the anchor of the backline
Weitering is having an All Australian 40 type year, even if he doesn’t sneak into the actual side.
Of his 22 one-on-ones defended inside 50, he’s lost only four, neutralised 11 and won seven of them.
He has defended the second-most in the competition behind Harris Andrews.
He doesn’t have the intercept game of Andrews, ranking only above average for intercept possessions and below average for intercept marks.
But he locks away the best forward, giving Ben King a bath in Darwin.
Before that he had actually been beaten in the past three weeks, giving up three goals to Matt Taberner, three to Josh Kennedy and four goals to Jack Gunston and Tim O’Brien.
But scalps this year include Tom Lynch and Tom Mcdonald (both goalless) and keeping Tom Hawkins to only two goals in Round 3.
12. Tom Williamson is thriving but not in the way you would think
Tom Williamson was the much-spruiked kid with the booming left foot and the back that kept him from so much football.
This year he has done sterling work as a stopper of small forwards.
In ten games his metres-gained stuff and kicking efficiency is just so-so, but he kept Jamie Cripps to a single goal, kept Connor Rozee goalless, kept Dan Butler goalless and conceded only a single goal against Gryan Miers. No small has got him this year.
The balance of Weitering and Liam Jones as key talls, Lochie Plowman and Williamson as stoppers and Sam Petrevski-Seton, Kade Simpson and skipper Sam Docherty as defenders who rebound has been excellent.
Somehow Caleb Marchbank, ready for seniors after a six-month knee injury, has to slot back into that side.
13. Former carpet layer Michael Gibbons is having a hell of a year
No one else wanted to give the VFL star a chance, but a case in point was Friday night.
Of his 19 possessions, 10 were score involvements in a 138-ranking point game.
The Blues reconfigured him as a pressure forward with a massive tank who could two-way run.
This year his offensive game has stood out – his 4.7 score involvements is 12th in the comp.
His uncontested possession ranking is fourth in the comp.
He kicks a goal a game, which isn’t massive, but the sum of his parts as a former summer rookie is exceptional.
The other player the Blues took instead of plumbing for Brendon Goddard, who they tried to lure from retirement, is Matthew Cottrell and in his three game he has shown signs he has something with his breakaway speed.
14. Finally the Blues have ruck depth
Carlton has had to turn Levi Casboult into a makeshift ruckman given Matthew Kreuzer’s continual injury issues.
Kreuzer likely won’t return this year but in Marc Pittonet and Tom de Koning they have a partnership to work with.
Pittonet started the season on fire and is still above average for clearances, centre bounce clearances and intercept marks, happy to get his hands dirty when the ball hits the ground.
As a 24-year-old poached from Hawthorn, he’s got real upside.
De Koning is only a baby in football terms but at 203cm has that blend of athleticism that gives fans hope he could develop into a genuine ruck-forward entirely capable in any zone on the ground.
Carlton has a welter of talls given Charlie Curnow, Kreuzer and Mitch McGovern are both out of this team.
Fans have wondered if they might trade one of them for Tom Papley as well as their No. 1 pick.
It’s hard to see how Sydney will relent on Papley, but regardless given the injury history of Carlton’s talls why wouldn’t you continue to stockpile them.
15. Charlie Curnow should be back bigger and better next year
Every Blues fan has wondered out loud since Curnow’s run of knee injuries that maybe he will never maximise his talent.
But both football boss Brad Lloyd and CEO Cain Lidlde have been bullish about his rehab in their recent comments.
He is back running, has good structural integrity in his knee, and with a touch of luck should be back in Round 1 as that roaming forward.
Given the talls at Teague’s disposal can he have a summer that allows him to play wing as much as a third of his game time?
16. The Blues have heaps of cap space
Port Adelaide were told at the start of the year only the Blues had more cap space, banking room by front-ending deals for players like Jack Martin.
They still have all of their picks in the 2020 national draft so have real freedom to try to fill list holes.
CEO Cain Liddle talked recently about wanting to maximise the talent on their list before they threw massive cash at rivals.
So where does Paddy Dow fit in?
How can they maximise Lochie O’Brien and De Koning’s talent?
Make no mistake, they will still try to lure Papley south.
But if they don’t hit paydirt that forward line will still function well without him.
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