SA Election 2022: Liberal and Labor strategists tip close result

Senior Labor and Liberal insiders are forecasting a tighter-than-expected result in Saturday’s election, with crossbenchers expected to be key in deciding the next government.

Liberal insiders believe Premier Steven Marshall remains a chance to defy opinion polls predicting a Labor landslide and form a minority government.

But their prediction is at odds with the latest Newspoll, published in today’s Weekend Australian, which has Labor leading the Liberals 54-46 on a two party-preferred basis.

That translates to a swing of 5.9 points against the government since the 2018 election.

Senior Labor figures are also predicting a tighter-than-expected election result which will force party leaders into a bidding war for support from independents to win power.

Respected strategists from both parties have told The Advertiser they are bracing for a hung parliament – but are uncertain about the final seat count.

One senior Labor figure said there was concern former Liberals Troy Bell, Dan Cregan and Fraser Ellis would resist Opposition Leader Peter Malinauskas’s pre-election overtures and side with their former party.

Premier Steven Marshall at the Golden Grove Tavern the night before the SA election. Picture: Tom Huntley

A senior Liberal said Mr Cregan’s support was uncertain, at best, but was more confident of securing backing from Mr Ellis, Mr Bell and another former Liberal, Sam Duluk, if speculation about a surprise win for him proved correct.

Latest figures show more than 200,000 people have cast pre-poll ballots, 11,500 have requested Covid-19 pick-up voter packs and more than 162,000 have lodged applications for postal votes – the remainder will cast their ballot by 6pm on Saturday.

In their final pitch to voters in columns published in The Advertiser on Saturday, Premier Steven Marshall urged voters to “stick with our strong recovery plan that’s working or risk it all on Labor’s reckless election spending”.

Mr Malinauskas declared the voters’ choice was between “my fresh and united Labor team with a plan for the future, or a tired and divided Liberal Party”.

Labor and Liberal strategists expect the election to be decided in the Liberal-held marginal seats of Adelaide, Elder, Newland and King.

They consider the most influential and unpredictable result will be in the state’s most marginal seat, Newland (margin 0.2 per cent), where first-term Liberal Richard Harvey is being challenged by Labor’s Olivia Savvas.

Veteran former Labor MP- turned-independent Frances Bedford is contesting the seat after a boundary redistribution triggered her to switch from neighbouring Florey, which she has held since 1997.

Adelaide is considered a likely Labor gain, with Liberal insiders saying their tracking polls have all-but written the seat off.

Opposition Leader Peter Malinauskas is predicted for a landslide win on Saturday. Picture: Tricia Watkinson

But one Labor strategist cautioned that Adelaide MP and Child Protection Minister Rachel Sanderson had been consistently underestimated by the party, and labelled her a hardworking grassroots campaigner.

First-term King MP Paula Luethen’s campaigning ability is rated highly by both sides, which expect her to be hard to dislodge unless there is a substantial swing to Labor.

“The question is how dug in is Paula Luethen as a sitting MP. It will be her personal presence over the last four years that determines that seat,” said one Labor insider.

Both sides are confident about their prospects in Elder, which includes the Repatriation General Hospital, closed in 2017 when Mr Malinauskas was health minister.

Incumbent Liberal Carolyn Power also was elected in 2018 and Labor is wary of the so-called sophomore surge, a political trend in which voters tend to reward first-term incumbents.

Adelaide MP Rachel Sanderson has been labelled a hardworking grassroots campaigner. Picture: Keryn Stevens

But Labor challenger Nadia Clancy forged a profile when unsuccessfully contesting the geographically coincident federal seat of Boothby in 2019.

The outer southern suburban electorate of Davenport, held by former Liberal state president Steve Murray, is considered a prospective Labor gain by some on both sides, despite an 8.4 per cent margin. Onkaparinga Mayor Erin Thompson is the ALP candidate.

One Labor strategist also touted Mr Marshall’s inner eastern electorate of Dunstan and Transport Minister Corey Wingard’s southwestern suburban seat of Gibson as potential “dark horse” ALP chances. Liberals said early concern had abated about Deputy Premier Dan van Holst Pellekaan’s electorate of Stuart being lost to crossbencher Geoff Brock.