Advertiser-YouGov poll delivers devastating result for Marshall’s Liberals

Labor is on the brink of seizing government in SA after just one term in the wilderness, according to an exclusive poll that delivered a hammer blow to the Liberal campaign.

Labor is poised to seize power at Saturday’s state election as voters abandon the Liberal government and surge behind first-term Opposition Leader Peter Malinauskas, an exclusive Advertiser poll finds.

In a devastating result for Premier Steven Marshall, the statewide Advertiser-YouGov poll shows Labor trouncing the Liberals on two-party preferred support, 56 per cent to 44 per cent.

MALINAUSKAS V MARSHALL: Sky News // The Advertiser People’s Forum // WATCH LIVE from 4.30pm Wednesday at advertiser.com.au

Mr Marshall is also trailing Mr Malinauskas as preferred premier, 40 per cent to 45 per cent.

Primary support for the Liberals has slumped to just 33 per cent – an almost identical level to that of their landslide 2006 election loss, when Labor’s Mike Rann won 28 seats to the Liberals’ 15.

Labor Leader Peter Malinauskas. Picture: Morgan Sette

The poll shows Labor easily ahead with primary support of 41 per cent, The Greens on 11 per cent and others on 15 per cent.

The poll is a hammer blow to a flailing Liberal campaign and, if the results were repeated in a uniform swing on election day, would condemn Mr Marshall to be the first one-term premier since fellow Liberal David Tonkin was ousted 40 years ago.

Labor, which held power for 16 years until the 2018 Liberal victory, would easily return to government in its own right by capturing up to six seats, without relying on crossbench backing.

Health and hospitals was rated the most important vote-deciding issue, by 39 per cent of respondents, and Labor easily considered the best to manage it – dramatically underlining the ALP’s success in exploiting ambulance ramping as its major election theme.

But the Covid-19 pandemic was rated the most important issue by just eight per cent, starkly revealing the evaporation of an incumbency advantage that propelled Labor to election victories in Queensland and WA in 2020 and 2021 respectively.

Almost 30 per cent of voters declared cost of living the most important issue but, alarmingly for the Liberals’ economic pitch, 36 per cent believed Labor would be better at managing this after the election, compared to 28 per cent opting for the Liberals.

However, 36 per cent believed Mr Marshall’s Liberals would be better at managing the economic recovery, compared to 26 per cent for Mr Malinauskas-led Labor – but just 16 per cent believed this was the most important election issue.

Premier Steven Marshall. Picture: NCA NewsWire / Naomi Jellicoe

The poll of 835 voters, conducted between March 7 and 13, shows Labor extending its lead from a Newspoll published on February 26, which put two-party preferred support at 53-47 in the ALP’s favour.

Mr Marshall retains relatively strong approval ratings: 46 per cent are satisfied with his performance, 48 per cent are dissatisfied and 6 per cent are undecided.

But this is a dramatic slump from the height of his popularity spurred by keeping Covid-19 out of SA throughout most of 2020 and 2021.

Voter satisfaction with Mr Marshall was at 60 per cent and 68 per cent in Advertiser-YouGov polls published last March and in September 2020 respectively.

But Mr Malinauskas, who struggled for the spotlight during much of the past two years, is enjoying rising support in the election lead-up. More than 50 per cent of voters are satisfied with his performance, while 32 per cent are dissatisfied and 17 per cent are undecided.

Two-party preferred support for the Liberals has slumped from a pandemic peak of 53 per cent to Labor’s 47 per cent in September 2020 to revert to an election-losing position of a March 2020 poll, in which Labor was ahead 53-47.