Advertiser YouGov Poll: Marshall Government at risk of being ousted after one term as Labor surges two years before election

An exclusive Advertiser/YouGov poll at the halfway point of the Liberal Government’s first term in office in 16 years is sure to send shockwaves through SA politics. SEE THE RESULTS

An exclusive Advertiser/YouGov poll has the SA Government in trouble halfway through its first term in office.

Premier Steven Marshall is in danger of being booted from office in just one term, as an exclusive Advertiser-YouGov poll shows Labor surging at the half time in State Parliament.

In a set of numbers that will stun SA politics, Opposition Leader Peter Malinauskas has flipped the 2018 election result as Labor takes a 53-47 two-party preferred lead.

Mr Malinauskas is also on the threshold of being SA’s preferred premier, an uncommon feat from Opposition, as he both draws support from Mr Marshall and converts the undecided.

The self-exile of former senator Nick Xenophon since his SA Best party failed to meet expectations in the 2018 vote has helped Labor, which is picking up his lost support.

The Greens have also significantly increased their primary vote support, as calls for action on climate change grow in the aftermath of summer bushfires, a development that ultimately boosts Labor’s two-party result due to analysis of historical preference flows.

This poll was conducted to mark the two-year anniversary of the election.
The only other major poll conducted in that period was also by The Advertiser, at the one-year mark.

A comparison of those results indicates that 2019, which was dominated by the torturous land tax saga and growing fears over job security, took a major toll on the Government’s standing.

Last year’s poll showed the political balance virtually unchanged since the election.

In the past 12 months, there has been a 5 per cent swing to Labor that completely changes the balance of SA politics and suggests the vote in 2022 is likely to be extremely tight.

For Labor to claim government in its own right, it must rise from 19 seats to 24.

This swing, applied uniformly, would get Mr Malinauskas to 23.

The four losses for the Liberals would include Child Protection Minister Rachel Sanderson and three first-term MPs.

That would have Mr Malinauskas in the box seat to form minority government.

But Labor will now be bullish that, with a swing possible, they can challenge even further up the pendulum and have a serious shot as seats that are considered relatively safe.

That could include targeting Mr Marshall personally in his Norwood-based seat of Dunstan, held by 6.2 per cent, and disrupting the Liberals’ wider campaign for re-election.

In calculation for Labor will no also be another half a dozen Liberal seats held by margins between 5 per cent and 10 per cent.

A looming boundary redraw could also aid its case.

On primary votes, the Liberals lead Labor 39-38.

The Greens score 11, and SA Best 7.

Mr Marshall is the preferred premier of 38 per cent of voters, down from 46 last year.

Mr Malinauskas has improved from 26 per cent last year to 36 per cent now.

The number of undecided on who would be best has slipped slightly from 28 per cent to 26.

Mr Malinauskas higher numbers of respondents saying he is doing a good job, with 44 per cent satisfied compared to 37 per cent for Mr Marshall.

Forty-one per cent are dissatisfied with Mr Marshall’s performance, compared to 26 per cent for Mr Malinauskas.

Those unsure rank at 22 per cent for Mr Marshall, and 30 per cent for Mr Malinauskas.

When asked if SA was worse or better off since Mr Marshall’s election, only 25 per cent said life had improved. A third said it had got worse, 42 per cent said things were about the same.

The survey was conducted by respected polling YouGov between last Friday and Wednesday this week.

It included 856 interviews, meaning there is a 3.4 per cent margin for error.

That period covered the Government’s early health responses to the coronavirus, including establishment of new clinics and drive through testing, and finished with the major $350 million economic stimulus package announced by Mr Marshall to maintain jobs.

YouGov has changed its methodology for polling since the federal election in May last year, amid other surprise results including Brexit and rise of US President Donald Trump.

It has shifted from a mixed methodology involving online and robocalling to a 100 per cent online approach, saying it achieved a better representation of the population.