SA Election 2022: How Premier Steven Marshall got outgunned by Labor Leader Peter Malinauskas

Premier Steven Marshall has been outfoxed since early in the campaign by his photogenic Labor rival Peter Malinauskas, writes Paul Starick.

Champagne corks were popping prematurely for Premier Steven Marshall back in mid-October, alarming senior Liberals who urged him to curb his late-night functions and a perceived growing arrogance fuel­led by a high public approval for his pandemic performance.

The Advertiser reported concerns by respected party elders who cautioned the Premier was developing an “I can’t do anything wrong” attitude, exacerbated by being surrounded by people unwilling to challenge him.

Mr Marshall was spending too much time at functions for his arts portfolio, the senior Liberals warned, and not enough time focusing on his bid to win another term.

Peter Malinauskas with his daughter Eliza at the Adelaide Aquatic Centre in North Adelaide. Picture: Brenton Edwards

Whether or not Mr Marshall should have gone to bed earlier, the inescapable election-day conclusion is that he has been thrashed in the campaign by Labor rival Peter Malinauskas.

Before Omicron, a confident Liberal campaign had been eyeing off the Labor-held seats of inner-southern suburban Badcoe (4.5 per cent margin) and northeastern suburban Wright (3.5 per cent).

Even then it was arguable the Liberals’ confidence was misplaced.

When they should have been focused on sowing the case for re-election, the Liberals were focused on fighting to control the parliament.

In early October, conservative Dan Cregan quit the Liberals and was installed as Speaker in a Labor crossbench coup.

Former Liberal conservative-turned-crossbencher Sam Duluk had been installed on a parliamentary committee that, in November, triggered the decision by Vickie Chapman, Mr Marshall’s key ally, to stand down as Deputy Premier.

Some conservatives – Liberal and crossbenchers – are privately hostile to Mr Marshall, believing his Moderate faction has frozen them out of cabinet. They accuse him of behaving like a Labor Left Premier for pushing social reforms on abortion and euthanasia.

This prompted a significant concession from Mr Marshall in a pre-election Advertiser interview, when he declared cabinet balance had not been achieved in the past 12 to 18 months and “would need to be addressed in the future”.

Despite muscling up and challenging his opponent and interviewers more frequently in the campaign’s final week, Mr Marshall has been outgunned by Mr Malinauskas.

“Libs have been totally uninspiring. Boring and dead. Labor has been jingoistic and populist. The public buys the populist stuff,” said a former senior state Liberal adviser, a constituent in the northeastern Adelaide seat of King.

Premier Steven Marshall and his family, sisters Jenny Richardson, Kerrin Barreau, mother Barbara Marshall and daughter Georgie Marshall. Picture: Kelly Barnes

Mr Malinauskas’s mentor, Senator Don “The Godfather” Farrell, was more blunt.

“Peter has run the best campaign from opposition that I’ve seen in my lifetime and Steven Marshall has run the worst I’ve ever seen from an incumbent,” he said.

The test, of course, comes on election day. Opinion polls and bookies’ odds point to a Labor landslide. Respected figures from both major parties are tipping a tight result. The Liberals might even have a pathway to victory, they say, with backing from former Liberal crossbenchers.

Finally, Saturday night will provide some answers.