Federal election polling booth analysis triggers state Liberal Adelaide wipe-out warnings

It’s been nothing short of a disastrous weekend for the Libs, but does a similar result await Vincent Tarzia and his team at next year’s state election? Have your say.

The beleaguered Liberals won only a handful of booths across Adelaide at the weekend federal poll, triggering warnings of another wipe-out across the metropolitan area at next year’s state election.

Advertiser analysis of two-party preferred votes in all polling booths across Adelaide’s seven metropolitan federal electorates shows the Liberals won just seven.

If repeated at the state election on March 21 next year, the Liberals would lose all six metropolitan seats, including leader Vincent Tarzia’s northeastern electorate of Hartley.

The former blue-ribbon seat of Sturt was lost to Labor at Saturday’s poll, with double-digit swings against the Liberals in areas including Beaumont (14.05 per cent), Felixstow (10.36 per cent) and Highbury South (14.74 per cent). Liberal bastions of Burnside, Rose Park and Tusmore were lost.

Premier Peter Malinauskas and Opposition Leader Vincent Tarzia faced off recently at the SA Press Club leaders' debate. Picture: Brenton Edwards

Across Adelaide, the only booths won by the Liberals were Unley Park (Adelaide electorate), Myrtle Bank, Boothby and Sturt pre-poll centres, One Tree Hill (Spence) and three special hospital booths at multiple sites in Makin and Sturt.

Former Liberal prime minister Tony Abbott campaigned in Elizabeth as part of a concerted Liberal effort in Spence.

Mr Tarzia said the federal election had been fought on federal issues and his party accepted the result “with humility”, because it was a reminder “that in politics nothing can be taken for granted”.

In a message about the federal election result to Liberals in the Unley branch of veteran MP David Pisoni, state election committee president Luka Rinaldi said: “It is clearly evident that the Liberal Party has an issue in metropolitan areas across our nation. Were (these) results repeated at a state level, we would likely lose every seat in metropolitan Adelaide to the Labor Party, as well as seats such as Heysen and Finniss.”

This would leave the Liberals with just five members in the 47-seat lower house – an unprecedented result comparable only to the 2021 WA election, at which the party won just two seats.

University of Adelaide emeritus professor in politics Clement Macintyre said: “There was a wipe-out for the South Australian Liberals at the federal level in Adelaide. And unless something dramatic changes, there’s every expectation that a similar result awaits them at the state election in 2026, which is now less than 11 months away.”

Mr Tarzia said the Liberals needed to “refocus on delivering what matters most to South Australians and that’s exactly what we’re doing”.

“The current state Labor Government has the wrong priorities, and we are working hard on policies that will make real change for real people. I’m looking forward to continuing to share those policies as the alternative government for SA,” he said.

Premier Peter Malinauskas said “complacency is death in politics”.

“History clearly shows that assuming one election result informs the next is foolish – and that is particularly true in the modern world, where things move quickly,” he said.

Editor’s note. An earlier version of this story showed the Liberals winning the Elizabeth South booth. This was based on Australian Electoral Commission figures, which have since been corrected.