Analysis - Michael McGuire: What happens if the election delivers a hung Parliament

OF the seemingly endless variations thrown up by this strangest of elections, the prospect of a hung Parliament, where no party wins enough seats to govern alone, is one of the stronger possibilities.

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OF the seemingly endless variations thrown up by this strangest of elections, the prospect of a hung Parliament, where no party wins enough seats to govern alone, is one of the stronger possibilities.

The question of “What happens next?” will start to float through the political atmosphere almost as soon as the polls close this evening. But even though two of the past four Labor governments have governed from a position of minority, there are no set ground rules to determine who will be the first to claim the 24 seats needed to form the state’s next government.

If no clear winner emerges, the ever-pragmatic Premier Jay Weatherill will be on to the phone to anyone he believes will do a deal with him to arrange meetings; whether that be Nick Xenophon, other SA Best candidates, or independents Frances Bedford, Geoff Brock or Troy Bell.

VERY TIGHT: Major party leaders Nick Xenophon (SA Best), Jay Weatherill (Labor) and Steven Marshall (Liberal) shake hands at the final debate on Wednesday night.

It’s more complicated for Liberal leader Steven Marshall. He can negotiate with any successful independent, such as Bedford, Brock and Bell, but he has already ruled out talks with Xenophon to do a deal.

Which means if the Liberals’ only path to power is through Xenophon, then Marshall either has to break a core election promise or resign.

Mike Rann became premier in 2002 because he convinced ex-Liberal Peter Lewis to support him. Subsequently, he also convinced conservative politicians Rory McEwen and Karlene Maywald to join his cabinet, shoring up his minority government.

After the 2014 election, Weatherill convinced rural independent Brock to back Labor. Weatherill drove to Port Pirie while the Liberals and Marshall dithered.

Emulating Rann, Weatherill later persuaded former Liberal leader Martin Hamilton-Smith to join his cabinet.

All the independents and SA Best will extract a price.

Xenophon will talk pokies and royal commissions, Bedford will demand more support for Modbury Hospital, Brock more money for the regions – as he did last time.

Xenophon has not committed to siding with the party with the most seats or votes. Bedford is traditional Labor but the Liberals could offer her the speaker’s role. Bell was a Liberal before being charged with dishonesty offences and Brock could go either way.

Then whatever coalition is formed it could be immediately tested on the floor of the House of Assembly to demonstrate the new premier has the confidence of the parliament as the Rann/Lewis combination did in 2002.

It could be a bumpy ride.