Election 2018: Key seat analysis of crucial electorates that could determine government formation
WITH Nick Xenophon’s SA Best party entering the election in a big way, victory for either of the two major parties, will likely hinge on a handful of votes – sometimes in electorates that usually would be considered safe as houses. We look at these crucial seats.
SA 2018
Don't miss out on the headlines from SA 2018. Followed categories will be added to My News.
- Where to vote: Find your nearest polling place
- Leaders’ final pitches — a heckler and even more bull
- Master list: Policies and pledges by all major parties
- Election 2018 HQ: Lastest news, polling places, data maps, videos
- And the honours go to ... the 2018 Off the Record awards
TODAY’S state election is a historic, three-way contest in multiple seats, with the performance and influence of Nick Xenophon’s SA Best the great unknown.
Even experienced Liberal and Labor strategists say Mr Xenophon and his candidates might win anything from six seats — to none.
Labor is waging an intense rearguard battle to stave off the SA Best threat in heartland working-class seats in Adelaide’s north and Whyalla.
Similarly, Liberals in traditional blue-ribbon seats in the Adelaide Hills, Riverland and Yorke Peninsula have been forced to campaign hard in a bid to safeguard their turf.
With Labor shooting for 20 years in office, the Liberals normally would expect to be clear favourites, riding a wave of dissent caused by frustration at a long-term government.
After 16 years, any government makes embarrassing blunders and builds up electoral barnacles. But Mr Xenophon up-ended the election campaign last October, when he told a Montefiore Hill press conference that he would quit the Senate and contest the eastern Adelaide seat of Hartley, now held for the Liberals by Vincent Tarzia.
Mr Xenophon’s party had been expected to attract some support, following success at the 2016 federal election, when Rebekah Sharkie seized the Adelaide Hills seat of Mayo from the Liberals.
But the entry of the popular Mr Xenophon directly into election race intensified the campaign and sent a shudder through both major parties.
Illustrating his support, two Newspolls — one in December, the other a fortnight ago — both showed him as preferred premier — albeit his support in the latter, at 29 per cent, was just ahead of Premier Jay Weatherill (28 per cent) and Opposition Leader Steven Marshall (24 per cent).
Banking on unrest at Labor provoking an irresistible mood for change, Mr Marshall is confident of winning at least 24 seats to secure majority government. He has ruled out doing a deal with Mr Xenophon, even if his support is required to win.
Mr Weatherill, who has tried to shed the baggage of the past by painting an appealing, jobs-focused vision for the future, is prepared to cut a deal and has been wooing Mr Xenophon.
In a wildly unpredictable election with a large amount of undecided voters, there is a general opinion that support has been swinging to the Liberals.
But securing victory, for either of the two major parties, likely will hinge on a relative handful of votes, sometimes in electorates that usually would be considered safe as houses.
HARTLEY
Incumbent: Vincent Tarzia, Liberal
The seat in the spotlight. So much rests on the outcome of this seat, not just because SA Best leader Nick Xenophon is a candidate. If he wins and his party wins a few more seats, he likely will decide who forms government. Labor’s Grace Portolesi represented the seat from 2006-14, securing a valuable profile that might result in an unexpected victory and frustrate the Liberals’ path to government. Mr Tarzia should be considered favourite, based on an Advertiser/Galaxy poll that this week put him ahead of Mr Xenophon 51-49 on a two-party basis. Looks tough for Mr X but he revels in the underdog position.
MAWSON
Incumbent: Leon Bignell, Labor
Arguably the bellwether seat, given its critical place on the electoral pendulum and the importance placed on it in the closing days by the major parties. Nominally a Liberal seat with a 3.2 per cent margin after an electoral redistribution, our poll this week showed it deadlocked at 50-50 on two-party preferred. This heartened Labor, which believes Mr Bignell is a realistic chance at a heroic victory. Some Liberal strategists agree. The seat has enjoyed the pork-barrelling benefits of Mr Bignell’s tourism portfolio, particularly in road and Kingscote airport spending.
HEYSEN
Retiring MP: Isobel Redmond, Liberal
SA Best is hopeful in this one-time Liberal stronghold in the Adelaide Hills, where the Nick Xenophon Team’s Rebekha Sharkie toppled Jamie Briggs at the 2016 federal election. They hope her popularity and incumbency will rub off on police officer John Illingworth. Our poll suggested he is within striking distance of Liberal candidate Josh Teague, who hopes to take over from Ms Redmond. Mr Teague, a lawyer, is the son of former Liberal senator Baden Teague.
TAYLOR
Retiring MP: Leesa Vlahos, Labor
The Oakden aged-care scandal claimed Ms Vlahos’s political scalp, even before her obstinance and buck-passing was revealed. The unremarkable former union secretary John Gee is Labor’s candidate in the usually safe seat, on Adelaide’s northwestern outskirts. But Labor strategists have been alarmed by a surge in support for SA Best in their northern Adelaide strongholds. Our poll put Mr Gee ahead of
SA Best candidate Sonja Taylor
51-49. Labor has deployed significant resources into the north, realising that, even in defeat, it could not afford to lose these prime seats.
GILES
Incumbent: Eddie Hughes, Labor
With the saving of Whyalla’s steelworks by British tycoon Sanjeev Gupta, the overjoyed city would have been expected to reward the sitting member. But as in Taylor, working-class voters have turned against Labor and towards SA Best. An Advertiser-Galaxy poll in late February showed Mr Hughes and SA Best’s Tom Antonio deadlocked at 50-50. Labor has, once again, focused attention on the seat. Mr Antonio is a former Whyalla deputy mayor, whose rivalry with Mayor Lyn Breuer — formerly the Labor MP — might drag down his vote.
FLOREY
Incumbent: Frances Bedford, Independent (previously Labor)
Ms Bedford is expected to win this seat, according to our poll, and might play a kingmaker role in a tight election. She has said she won’t support Labor on any “stupid” policies and has campaigned alongside Mr Xenophon. Given she is a former Labor MP in a seat that has traditionally backed the ALP, it is unlikely she would opt for the Liberals if given the choice.
FROME
Incumbent: Geoff Brock, Independent
Mr Brock sealed minority government for Jay Weatherill after the 2014 election over a pizza and got a Port Pirie smelter upgrade. He won the seat in a by-election when former Liberal premier Rob Kerin retired in 2009 and has resisted the Liberals’ attempts to oust him since. Like Mawson, Frome has enjoyed the pork-barrelling benefits flowing from a minister in the Labor cabinet. Our poll showed Mr Brock ahead of Liberal candidate Kendall Jackson 52-48, so she is not without hope. But the taciturn Mr Brock has commentators wondering if he would secure an independent legacy by, if given the chance, backing the Liberals into government this time.
MORPHETT
Incumbent: Duncan McFetridge, Independent (previously Liberal)
Another major-party member turned independent, Dr McFetridge was languishing at 16 per cent primary support in our March 1 poll, indicating he did not enjoy much benefit from incumbency. The Liberal candidate, Holdfast Bay Mayor and former Norwood footballer Stephen Patterson, is likely heading for a comfortable victory. As in Martin Hamilton-Smith’s seat of Waite, this would return a seat to the Liberal camp.
LEE
Incumbent: Stephen Mullighan, Labor
The Transport Minister and future Labor leadership contender has been threatened by an unfavourable boundary change. The Liberals were once confident of deposing him and our campaign-opening poll showed the seat deadlocked at 50-50. But expectation of an upset has subsided across the parties. Victory would mean Mr Mullighan retains his spot in the Labor pecking order, behind his mate Peter Malinauskas as a future leader.
COLTON
Retiring MP: Paul Caica, Labor
Local boy Mr Caica saved Labor in 2014 but his party faces an uphill battle, despite some canny ALP strategists talking up candidate and teacher Angela Vaughan. The seat is now nominally Liberal, on a 3.7 per cent margin, so Liberal candidate and Paralympic champion Matt Cowdrey must be the strong favourite. This is yet another crucial seat likely to go to the Liberals.
ELDER
Incumbent: Annabel Digance, Labor.
Ms Digance looked at moving to neighbouring Badcoe, where Jayne Stinson has been working hard for Labor. So she must lack confidence in victory, likely with some justification. Liberal candidate Carolyn Habib was targeted with a Labor smear campaign in 2014 and likely will rise above that for victory this time. The seat was once held by Labor kingpin Patrick Conlon.
NEWLAND
Incumbent: Tom Kenyon, Labor
A renowned campaigner and former minister, Mr Kenyon has proved incredibly difficult for the Liberals to dislodge since capturing the seat in 2006 from Dorothy Kotz. This seat has flown under the radar somewhat, yet might prove critical in a close contest if Mr Kenyon can defy the odds once again.
ADELAIDE
Incumbent: Rachel Sanderson, Liberal
If Labor was going to capture any seat from the Liberals, this surely would be the one. The Adelaide CBD vibe has been central to Jay Weatherill’s premiership, helped by public spending on the new Royal Adelaide Hospital and Adelaide Oval in particular. Labor candidate Jo Chapley, an in-house lawyer for her family’s supermarket chain, has a high profile. But Labor hopes seem to have dimmed as the tide turns towards the Liberals in the final part of the campaign.
MT GAMBIER
Incumbent: Troy Bell, Independent (previously Liberal)
Mr Bell is facing serious fraud charges but a shock poll last month showed him heading for victory in a seat renowned for electing independents. If this happens, he is likely to back the Liberals, even if they should not bank on this. But Liberal candidate Craig Marsh cannot be discounted.
CHAFFEY
Incumbent: Tim Whetstone, Liberal
One of the Liberals’ safest three seats, the Riverland electorate is under threat from SA Best, given Mr Xenophon’s campaigning for the River Murray. His party also enjoyed some success in the area at the federal election. Mr Whetstone has had a rocket put up him because SA Best candidate Michelle Campbell is a serious chance. She is a former staffer for the highly capable previous member, the Nationals’ Karlene Maywald, who served in Labor’s Cabinet. Likely to remain Liberal, given a high primary vote meaning it would not go to preferences, along with the similarly blue-ribbon seat of Narungga on the Yorke Peninsula.
DUNSTAN
Incumbent: Steven Marshall, Liberal
An Advertiser-Galaxy poll this week showed the Liberal leader heading for victory, but he is on a 3.9 per cent margin, so an incredible upset is not impossible. Imagine the consequences.
Long, hard look in the mirror can prepare Labor for future
NEW Labor Leader Peter Malinauskas has changed the party’s image, but a fundamental review of its stand on key issues like the economy and energy are crucial for a real political rebuild, writes Daniel Wills.
Malinauskas unveils Labor’s shadow cabinet
LABOR rising star Stephen Mullighan has claimed the prized treasury portfolio in a new-look Opposition frontbench which boasts double the number of women as in the Liberal Cabinet.