There are major concerns inside Labor about what happens when Daniel Andrews leaves

The Andrews government has had one of its worst weeks in recent memory and the cracks in the Dan wall risk bringing it all crashing to the ground.

Are we witnessing the beginning of the end of the Andrews government?

It certainly feels that way.

Even ignoring the Will Fowles scandal, (more on that later), things seem to be going from bad to worse for Labor. And the cracks that are opening up in the Dan wall risk bringing it all crashing to the ground.

Since storming to a third election victory in November, there has been little for the government to crow about. Rather, it has been uncharacteristically forced to bow to public pressure, backtrack on policy, and ditch election commitments.

In June the government went back on its controversial schools tax in a move expected to cost at least $100m. May’s budget forecast $420m would be raised by removing the payroll tax exemption for about 110 non-government schools.

But the government wound back the program to include just 60 schools amid a fierce backlash.

There has been little for the Andrews government to crow about since winning last November’s election. Picture: Andrew Henshaw

It was a sign of things to come.

Last week was one of the worst for the government in recent memory. It could be mere coincidence that it came in the Premier’s absence, or it could be a sign of what lies ahead.

It started with an orchestrated attack by government MPs on former IBAC boss Robert Redlich when he appeared before the state’s integrity and oversight committee. There was news that the plans to build two new railway lines in Melbourne’s outer west had been scrapped. Not a broken promise, the government said, but an “evolving commitment”.

Even by the standards of the Andrews spin machine that’s a good effort.

We also learnt of mass redundancies to the Visiting Teacher Service, a program that provides support to children with special needs. The cuts will leave just 32 visiting teachers to serve the entire state, down from 117. If ever the challenge of record debt needed proving, it could be done so through cutting services for vulnerable children.

Government MPs carried out an orchestrated attack on former IBAC boss Robert Redlich. Picture: AAP

By Thursday, government MPs were involved in a verbal spat with Greens MP Tim Read, who backed a motion to debate the government’s treatment of Redlich.

It poses the question: would something as ill disciplined have happened if Andrews wasn’t off sick, but around steering the ship? And it prompted wider concerns inside Labor about what happens when he leaves.

As experienced as deputy Jacinta Allan is, she doesn’t command the same discipline as Andrews.

And because of the internal pressure his style of leadership has created, MPs are desperate for some freedom. Which creates a significant problem for Allan, which will need careful management if, and it’s still the most likely result, she takes the reins when Andrews pulls the plug.

Deputy Premier Jacinta Allan doesn’t command the same discipline as Andrews. Picture: David Caird

Perhaps the biggest problem for the government is the cancellation of the Commonwealth Games, which could continue to be a millstone around its neck. In coming to the decision to scrap the event, a severe miscalculation appears to have been made about the political fallout.

Not because the event won’t be held. But because it has exposed political incompetence that the government will find difficult to resile from. While Victorians are enduring a cost-of-living crisis, the government won’t be forgiven for squandering an estimated $1bn in cancellation compensation. To put that figure into context, it’s $400 for every Victorian household.

The record debt amassed during the pandemic was largely forgiven by voters in light of the unique challenges. Andrews’ equity has always been in security and safety.

Victorians might not have liked lockdowns, but most accepted them as a cost of being kept safe.

But that equity has been flipped on its head as safety and security are exchanged for chaos. That the entire crossbench voted with the Opposition to establish an inquiry into the Games decision is both rare and stunning.

Andrews made a severe miscalculation about the political fallout from cancelling the Commonwealth Games. Picture: Jason Edwards

Political strategist Tony Barry, a Liberal Party veteran, knows only too well how quickly political stocks can change.

“When public sentiment turns, it turns savagely on leaders,” he says.

“In politics all leaders have a shelf life. It’s like bread, when it goes off it goes off fast.”

Then there’s the Fowles problem.

We still don’t know exactly what he’s alleged to have done. But for the Premier to have cut him loose so quickly, Labor clearly thinks he can’t recover. The fact it’s been referred to police means it may be even more serious than we think and Fowles could end up resigning from parliament altogether.

The by-election that would force would be the best barometer we have for how both the government and Opposition are travelling. With the Liberals expected to retain the nearby seat of Warrandyte this month, they could build enough momentum to win Fowles’ seat of Ringwood from Labor.

Very little is going right for the government right now. The real question is, has the Opposition done enough, and are they good enough to exploit it?

Shannon Deery is state politics editor.

Originally published as There are major concerns inside Labor about what happens when Daniel Andrews leaves