Those advocating for a split of the Victorian Liberal Party look to Reform UK

As the opposition slides backwards fast, some within the Victorian Liberal Party want to follow the lead of Britain’s uber successful Reform UK led by Nigel Farage.

There have been varying reactions to latest polling which shows Labor gaining ground and the opposition sliding backwards fast.

Inside the Liberal Party, some have ignored the backward slide, others have refused to accept the figures and others still have already resigned themselves to another election defeat.

Inside Labor there was general surprise, disguised as confidence insofar as their current strategy, such that it is, appears to be working.

As it stands, there is almost no doubt the Allan government will easily win next year’s state election and with it a historic fourth consecutive term in government.

Polling shows Jacinta Allan is on track to easily win next year’s state election. Picture: Brendan Beckett

If the Liberal Party isn’t in the midst of an existential crisis, a fourth thumping at the ballot box would certainly bring one on.

In hushed tones around Spring St, some are now having conversations about whether or not the time has come for the party to split.

These are not formal discussions or even conversations being had among Liberals of any particular influence.

But the idea in itself is an interesting as it is complex.

Do the moderates or the conservatives keep the Liberal Party branding and existing infrastructure, such that it is?

How does funding work, and do Victoria’s strict electoral laws allow the prospect of start-up parties getting off the ground?

There is an argument that a coalition of Liberal parties with their own hierarchies and power structures could work together better than the existing setup.

The counterargument is that those within the existing party should simply grow up and commit to working together, rather than against each other.

Those advocating for a split look to Britain’s uber successful Reform UK.

The right-wing party, originally founded as the Brexit Party in 2018 by Nigel Farage, runs on a core platform of strict immigration controls, tax cuts, reduced government spending, and a focus on “common sense” policies that challenge the political establishment.

In last year’s general election, Reform UK made a dramatic impact, capturing nearly 15 per cent of the national vote and outperforming the Conservatives in several key areas.

Nigel Farage runs the Reform UK party with a focus on ‘common sense’ policies. Picture: AFP

Latest polling puts Reform UK on a 34 per cent primary vote, nine points ahead of Labour on 25 per cent, and the Conservatives trailing far behind on 15 per cent.

The party is seen as stronger than the Conservatives in terms of political momentum, grassroots energy, and influence over the national debate. Victoria is a very different political setup than the UK, and the comparison can’t easily be made.

But it is the one being made by some who can’t see a way forward for the modern Victorian Liberal Party, and those who believe a hard lurch to the far Right is the only path forward.

Yet there is another path forward, as polling showed last week.

The Liberal Party needs to woo both the 18-35 year old demographic and diverse communities.

And the need to stop clinging to the “fantasy that Millennials and Gen Z will one day mature into Baby Boomer voting patterns,” Redbridge pollster Kos Samaras says.

“This generation has been forged by a very different world, housing crises, wage stagnation, insecure work, the Global Financial Crisis, a pandemic, and a loss of trust in almost every major institution.

“Now they’re working in an economy being reshaped by AI, where their degrees risk being rendered obsolete by code.

“Nearly all of them are or will live a life of lesser quality than previous generations. They don’t trust the old gatekeepers. And they don’t wait for permission to challenge them.”

If the Liberals stand a chance, surely they need to be connecting with communities now with solid candidates on the ground (and yet, preselections are still in the distant future) and developing a simple policy platform that can break through to a traditionally hostile voter base.

There has been much talk about a lack of policy preparation ahead of the election. And yet an analysis of the announced policy positions shows the opposition has put forward almost two dozen policies across the economy, community safety, energy, infrastructure and Indigenous affairs.

There are those who believe a hard lurch to the far Right is the only path forward for the Victorian Liberal Party. Picture: Getty

They’ve promised a new financial integrity plan to keep government spending accountable, will scrap five taxes, toughen bail laws, restore move-on powers for unruly protests, overturn Labor’s gas ban, ban bikies from government projects, cut red tape to help fast-track house-building and quit Treaty negotiations.

What they’ve failed to do is properly communicate those policies, and they have been over-reliant on reactive policies over innovative and visionary positions.

It can take just one good idea to win an election, such as Labor’s level-crossing removal program it campaigned on going into the 2014 election. The Liberals need just one, then like Ted Baillieu in 2010 can campaign on issues like law and order, the health system, government waste and cost-of-living pressures.

But after all that, voters, especially young ones, will be asking: “what’s in it for me?” If the answer is not much, expect more of the same for another four years.

Originally published as Those advocating for a split of the Victorian Liberal Party look to Reform UK