Paul Starick: Significant change in retirement plans for former Liberal premier Steven Marshall

Former premier Steven Marshall is understood to have made a significant switch in plans for his political future, Paul Starick writes.

Ousted as premier after just one term in office, Steven Marshall’s considerable talents are wasted on the Opposition back benches in state parliament.

Before the March 19 election, he repeatedly committed himself to serving a full term in his inner eastern Adelaide electorate of Dunstan, seemingly locking himself in until the next election in 2026.

But there has been a significant shift in Mr Marshall’s plans, even if speculation about him receiving a job offer from an iconic SA brand is incorrect.

It is understood Mr Marshall has been pointing out that there is no precedent of a former premier staying on the backbench for a full term after losing power.

This shows the goalposts have changed. The departure of Mr Marshall, who even his opponents concede has extensive networks and a tireless work ethic, is not imminent. But he is no longer committing himself to serving as the MP for the inner Adelaide seat of Dunstan until the 2026 election.

Former premier Steven Marshall in state parliament on Thursday.

Importantly, Mr Marshall is the first South Australian premier to not be eligible for a parliamentary pension once he leaves politics. This is because he was elected in 2010 – six years after his one-time mentor John Howard scrapped generous parliamentary super schemes under pressure from then-popular Labor leader Mark Latham.

Mr Marshall could earn far more in the corporate world than the $200,000 he gets for sitting on the backbench. He is an experienced leader in business and government sectors. He has an extraordinary network of national and global contacts, which he deployed as premier to attract a swag of hi-tech firms, jobs and investment. He has likened himself, when premier, to the state’s business development manager

Given his wage is not supplemented by sitting on parliamentary committees, the one-term premier is probably the state’s lowest paid MP.

The conundrum for the Liberals, and Mr Marshall, is now the timing of his departure. Mr Marshall is, in some respects, a prisoner in parliament. He is locked in by the severe risk his Norwood-based seat would be captured by Labor.

Former SA Premier Steven Marshall presenting flowers to constituents in his seat of Dunstan.

Dunstan is the state’s most marginal seat after Labor’s landslide election win. Mr Marshall’s margin is a slender 0.5 per cent. An Utting Research poll of Dunstan, commissioned by the shop assistants’ union and published by The Advertiser 15 days before the election, showed the-then Premier trailing Labor on two-party-preferred support by 49 per cent to 51 per cent.

Given he has held the seat, formerly known as Norwood, since 2010, it is reasonable to suppose that Mr Marshall has an incumbency benefit. The seat has been a Labor stronghold, as the name Dunstan indicates – former Labor premier Don Dunstan held Norwood from 1953-79. It was also held by Labor’s Vini Ciccarello from 1997-2010 and former Labor education minister Greg Crafter from 1980-1993.

Ousted premiers in recent times have held safe seats, meaning the timing of their political retirement was not so complicated. A by-election was held in former Labor premier Mike Rann’s ultra-safe northern suburbs seat of Ramsay in February 2012 – less than four months after he handed over the state’s top job to Jay Weatherill. Labor candidate Zoe Bettison, now Tourism Minister, secured 66.7 per cent of the two-party preferred vote.

Similarly, a by-election was held in Mr Weatherill’s northwestern Adelaide seat of Cheltenham in February 2019 – 11 months after he was ousted as premier by Mr Marshall. Labor’s Joe Szakacs, now Police Minister, secured 74.5 per cent of the two-party preferred vote.

Labor’s attitude to Mr Marshall switched substantially this week, when veteran frontbencher Tom Koutsantonis spearheaded attacks on him for skipping parliament on Tuesday to attend a Melbourne Cup VIP marquee at Flemington.

Former premier Steven Marshall attending the Penfolds marquee at the Melbourne Cup in Flemington on Tuesday. Photo. Luis Enrique Ascui

Premier Peter Malinauskas had been generous in his praise when Mr Marshall made two self-funded North American trips pitching for jobs and investment, in June and September.

But letting Mr Koutsantonis off the leash was partisan payback for the Liberals’ misguided and small-minded attack on Mr Malinauskas for attending the federal parliament press gallery’s Midwinter Ball in September.

Mr Marshall is now at an awkward crossroads. He can point to a strong economic record as premier – luring jobs and investment while turning around interstate migration figures for the first time in years. But his cachet will diminish the longer he is on the backbench and exposed to partisan attacks. If the Liberals believe they can win his seat, expect him to depart sooner rather than later.