Paul Starick: SA Liberals on brink of federal election disaster | Analysis

The Liberals are writing off the Boothby battleground as they face a new disaster in another Adelaide seat, Paul Starick writes.

The Liberals have effectively given up in Boothby, despite holding the seat for more than 70 years, and recriminations about the impending loss are already starting within the beleaguered party’s ranks.

But the loss of Sturt would be disastrous for the Liberals, because it would leave them with no metropolitan Adelaide federal seats and cruel the career of promising MP James Stevens.

Mr Stevens, who has been a Michell Wool executive and chief of staff to the-then premier Steven Marshall from 2018-19, a few years ago ranked alongside Labor’s Peter Malinauskas as the outstanding political operatives of their generation from their respective parties.

But Mr Malinauskas, 41, is now Premier, having condemned Mr Marshall as a one-term premier in a landslide victory on March 19. Mr Stevens, 39, is fighting for his political life.

The-then premier Steven Marshall watches Sturt MP James Stevens at Felixstow Reserve on February 26. Picture: Brenton Edwards

For Mr Stevens, the YouGov poll results are alarmingly similar to those of his former boss, Mr Marshall, who just clung on to his seat of Dunstan – entirely contained within Sturt.

Mr Marshall secured 46.7 per cent of the primary vote, Mr Stevens has 42 per cent primary support. Likewise Labor and the Greens secured 35.2 per cent and 13.7 per cent respectively in Dunstan, versus 36 per cent and 15 per cent in the Sturt poll. If preferences flow similarly in Sturt to Dunstan, Mr Stevens is finished.

These results are reinforced by internal polling from another party which shows the Liberals with primary support of 34 per cent, Labor 33 per cent and Greens 10 per cent.

The same party’s polling shows Labor with enormous primary support in Boothby of 42 per cent – enough for a comfortable win with preferences from the Greens and independent Jo Dyer.

Norwood Football Club CEO James Fantasia (left) and Sturt MP James Stevens at The Parade, Norwood’s home ground. Picture: Supplied

The YouGov poll also shows diminished primary support for seemingly popular Mayo MP Rebekha Sharkie of 28 per cent, compared to 34 per cent and 44 per cent at elections in 2019 and 2018 respectively, with Labor support increasing. But Ms Sharkie is still expected to win, with two-party preferred support of 52-48.

In the Liberal-held seat of Grey, Liberal Rowan Ramsay is comfortably withstanding a challenge from independent Liz Habermann, with primary support of 41 per cent, ahead of One Nation’s 12 per cent and 10 per cent for other (Ms Habermann).

When Mr Ramsey was threatened at the 2016 election, he secured 42 per cent of the primary vote but the Xenophon challenger garnered almost 28 per cent – yet lost by more than 3000 votes after preferences.