Christopher Pyne: Putin’s Ukraine war has exposed Russia’s weaknesses

As the war in Ukraine drags on, Vladimir Putin will not like the truths about Russia it is exposing – and China is paying very close attention, writes Christopher Pyne.

One thing Vladimir Putin has revealed in the past month is that Russia is no longer a super power.

I have written before that there are only two super powers in the world today – the United States of America and China. So far, the month-long Ukraine-Russia war puts that beyond doubt.

Gross Domestic Product in Russia is about the same size as the GDP of Australia. Interestingly, from our perspective, the GDP of Ukraine is comparable with the Gross State Product of South Australia. In other words, based on economic size, Russia failing to account for Ukraine would be like the rest of Australia being unable to bring South Australia to heel.

Russian President Vladimir Putin has exposed the fact that his country is no longer a world super power. Picture: AFP

There are at least four observations that can be made about the Russian failure in Ukraine.

The first is that the Russian military is not the feared war machine that it was made out to be.

It’s one thing to have the firepower to suppress your own people, blow up civilian aircraft in the sky and arrest and “disappear” protesters and political opponents. It’s proven to be quite another to invade a neighbouring sovereign state.

Russia miscalculated the resistance of the Ukrainian people. It failed to logistically supply its forces. It failed to co-ordinate its attack across three separate fronts. It didn’t appear to have a Plan B in the event of not securing a quick victory.

Russia is now bogged down.

A Ukrainian soldier sits in an armored car in the suburbs of Kyiv. Picture: AFP

Incredibly, despite outnumbering and outgunning the Ukraine Defence Force, Russia has not yet achieved air superiority.

Russian morale is low. Its forces are fighting in someone else’s country for a cause they have not had explained to them adequately.

Most military observers now believe that Russia does not have the human capital or the necessary firepower to take and hold Kyiv, Ukraine’s capital.

Secondly, despite much of the media pack writing off US President Joe Biden as a dithering lame duck, he has performed creditably well. If Donald Trump was still president, it’s anyone’s guess what he would have done.

Biden has surrounded himself with smart people, been focused on the task at hand, kept the pressure on the aggressor, united NATO, the European Union and other allies of the West and brought into being effective sanctions that have significantly affected the Russian economy.

The media incorrectly wrote off US President Joe Biden over Ukraine. Picture: AFP

Russia is hurting, in large part because of the policies the US has led worldwide.

It will be important once the war is over that sanctions against Russia are not relaxed. Russia will need to take responsibility for the damage it has wrought on Ukraine and itself.

There needs to be consequences for actions that lead to the needless deaths of thousands of people, both combatants and non-combatants, and the destruction of two economies.

The West will need to determine what the red lines are for the lifting of sanctions before that is done.

One of those lines may well be the removal of Putin and his cronies from power.

Thirdly, the West has been much more effective than many thought would be the case.

Russian President Vladimir Putin had calculated that the West would not interfere. Picture: AFP

One of Russia’s calculations would almost certainly have been that the West would not interfere.

The West didn’t interfere when Russia snatched Crimea from Ukraine. Nor did it act when Russia invaded Georgia in order to set up two separatist republics in that country. Based on precedent, Russia had good reason to believe that apart from strong public statements in favour of peace, it would have a relatively free hand in Ukraine.

However, that has proven to be another Russian miscalculation.

Very few countries associated with NATO, the European Union and the democratic world more generally, have not joined in imposing far reaching sanctions on the Russian financial system, the economy and the claque that surrounds the Kremlin.

Oligarchs like Chelsea owner Roman Abramovich are feeling the pinch. Picture: Getty Images

The oligarchs are feeling the pinch. I doubt they will go without their ration of caviar and Cristal but many have lost their maxi-yachts, cruisers, dress-circle real estate and private jets.

Finally, and particularly from Australia’s point of view, the Chinese government would be watching all of this with an enhanced level of interest.

China would like Taiwan to be brought under the control of the government in Beijing rather than the democratic government in Taipei. President Xi has made that very clear in speeches and statements in recent times. China has not ruled out using force to bring that about.

While I doubt that Xi’s regime actively encouraged Putin to invade Ukraine, he likewise probably didn’t discourage him.

China's President Xi Jinping will be watching the Ukraine conflict closely. Picture: AFP

For China, the Ukraine-Russia war is a real-time experiment in war in the modern era. You can learn much from such opportunities.

If the calculation was that a much larger power would overthrow a small one quickly, that the US government was weak and poorly led by people without conviction, and that the West would be disunited and more worried about its economic fortunes than the freedoms of like-minded peoples, then the Ukraine-Russia war has exploded that assessment.

For China, that is an important lesson learnt. For the Indo-Pacific, it will add to stability and certainty. For Taiwan, it will give them heart.