Christopher Pyne: Covid sent Steven Marshall’s government to its doom

Steven Marshall’s government had the misfortune of going to the polls at a time when attitudes about Covid were changing, and paid the price, writes Christopher Pyne.

The Covid-19 pandemic has claimed more than six million lives so far – and that’s the lowest estimation from John Hopkins University in the United States. The reality is, multiples of that number have fallen victim to Covid about whom we will never know.

Covid has just claimed another victim – the Marshall Liberal government.

Many experts have claimed that Covid is an electoral plus for incumbent governments. It seemed to be for the McGowan government in Western Australia, the Palaszczuk government in Queensland, the Gutwein government in Tasmania and the Gunner government in the Northern Territory. But those governments went to the polls at the height of people’s fear of contracting and dying from Covid. That time is well past.

Outgoing Premier Steven Marshall faced the polls when attitudes towards Covid were changing. Picture: Tait Schmaal.

The Marshall government was unlucky to have to go to the polls when views about Covid have broken into two distinct fissures.

There are those who are thoroughly sick of the restrictions imposed on everyone because of Covid. They want to travel, dance, stand up when they have a drink and stop wearing masks. They long ago stopped checking in using their QR code!

On the opposite end of the spectrum are those who are still fearful of Covid and want to keep borders closed, wear masks, stay indoors and avoid the prospect of getting the virus. In many cases for good reasons, such underlying health conditions, age and infirmity.

Trying to reconcile these two strongly held opinions is almost impossible.

In trying to steer a fair, just and middle path between them and implement what has been seen as the gold standard nationally and internationally, the Marshall government fell foul of both.

Most people have long since wanted to stop wearing masks. Picture: NCA NewsWire / Emma Brasier

That makes it hard to win an election. Covid killed the Marshall government.

It’s hard to win when a significant percentage of the population are just plain angry. They might not be angry with the incumbent candidate or government in particular, but on election day they have one vote and they tend to show their displeasure against whomever they perceive has caused their anger.

Sure, Labor focused ruthlessly on convincing voters there is a health crisis when there isn’t one.

Sure, the health unions, particularly the ambulance union, campaigned relentlessly against the Marshall government.

Sure, Peter Malinauskas presented well, presided over a disciplined team and ran a focused campaign for four years.

All of those factors played into the outcome in the 2022 South Australian election.

Christopher Pyne says he wishes Premier-elect Peter Malinauskas well. Picture: NCA NewsWire / Kelly Barnes

But none of that explains how a government that presided over record growth, record cranes over the city, net positive migration to SA, low unemployment, winning the most liveable city in Australia tag, lower energy prices, and reduced taxes and charges, could lose an election after only one term.

Truth is, there has been a simmering anger since late 2021 when Covid restrictions were reimposed and Labor has been the beneficiary.

To the victor go the spoils. I wish Peter Malinauskas well. He deserves to be congratulated. Being elected premier is a fine achievement. It’s important for the state that he does well, and as South Australians we should support him in that endeavour.

There is much to continue to build on from the past four years – defence, space, creative industries, technology and innovation, manufacturing and agriculture, new resource and energy projects – all of which give our state a bright future. In many seats the election isn’t over.

No-one worked harder for South Australia than Steven Marshall, says Christopher Pyne. Picture: NCA NewsWire / Brenton Edwards

More than 350,000 voters chose to complete a postal or pre-poll vote in the lead-up to the election.

Depending how many voters simply didn’t vote, despite voting being compulsory, or voted informally, either deliberately or in error, there are well in excess of 30 per cent of votes still to be counted.

While pre-poll votes tend to reflect the result on election day, postal votes almost always favour the Liberals because postal voters have a higher proportion of older voters and because they are wise, they tend to favour the Liberal side of the ledger. Sensible people.

That said, Covid might flip that. We shall have to wait and see.

That means the results in seats like Waite, Gibson, Finniss and Heysen are still not clear. There may be other seats that come back into play depending on preference flows.

Preference flows are as complicated as the cistern system in Istanbul. It may take until the end of the week for the final make-up of the House of Assembly to be determined.

Steven Marshall in a queue prior to voting in the the state election at Norwood Primary School. Picture: NCA NewsWire / Brenton Edwards

In the Legislative Council, while it will take even longer to count, at this stage it appears there will be four Labor, four Liberal and one Greens SA elected, with the likely new entrants of One Nation and the Liberal Democrats picking up their first seats in South Australia. SA-Best will not win. Their winning streak is over.

I don’t know any politician who has worked as hard as Steven Marshall. Eighteen-hour days were more common than rare for Steven. He has given his seat of Dunstan and the state his all. The energy that he brought to the job of premier could power Adelaide on its own. He deserves kudos for delivering the best Covid response in the country and one of the best in the globe.

For all those Liberal volunteers, officials, staff and supporters who feel crushed, remember the words of That’s Life, written by Dean Kay and Kelly Gordon, but more familiar than that, sung by Frank Sinatra.

“Each time I find myself flat on my face, I pick myself up and get back in the race!” So don’t despair, four years goes faster than you think.