Analysis: South Australia could soon be a one-party, Peter Malinauskas-ruled state | Paul Starick

The death knell is tolling for the South Australian Liberals as Peter Malinauskas is projected to spearhead a wipeout, writes Paul Starick.

Opposition Leader Vincent Tarzia speaks at the SA Press Club leaders' debate. Picture: Brenton Edwards

A one-party state ruled by Peter Malinauskas is firmly on the cards as the death knell starts tolling for his moribund Liberal rivals.

If the exclusive YouGov poll results are repeated at next March’s state election, Mr Malinauskas would spearhead a Labor landslide victory of historic proportions.

If this looming execution does not apply the heart-starter pads to the near-lifeless Liberals and shock them into dramatic action, then nothing will.

Their worst fears of a WA-style wipe-out are confirmed by a damning two-party preferred support level of 33 per cent, that would leave them with just two spots in the 47-seat lower house.

The remaining 45 seats would be overwhelmingly filled by Malinauskas-led Labor, likely joined by a handful of independents.

Immediately after Labor’s 2022 landslide win, I labelled Mr Malinauskas a “once-in-a-generation politician” and argued the Liberals had “again demonstrated a propensity to shoot themselves in the foot”.

These assessments have been confirmed in spades, time and again. Mr Malinauskas is considered to have prime ministerial potential, even by some in the halls of power in Canberra.

The Liberals have plumbed record depths – with former leader David Speirs convicted of supplying cocaine, two historic by-election losses and factional warfare leaving them too busy fighting themselves to lay a glove on their opponents.

An epic capitulation at the May 3 federal election left the Liberals without a metropolitan Adelaide seat, after they lost the former blue-ribbon eastern suburbs seat of Sturt.

This is now an existential issue for the Liberals, given they have held state power for only about one-third of the past 60 years.

Even under the previous low point at the 2006 state election, SA Liberals like Alexander Downer, Nick Minchin, Robert Hill and Amanda Vanstone had been foundation stones of the long-serving Howard federal government.

Premier Peter Malinauskas delivers the keynote address at The Advertiser’s Defending Australia summit at Parliament House in Canberra on Monday. Picture: Martin Ollman

State Liberal leader Vincent Tarzia, when installed last August, made the crazy-brave declaration that: “The Liberal Party will win the state election in 2026.” Barring a Lazarus-like miracle, this pipedream is in tatters.

This poll might signal the end of his leadership, if the divided Liberals coalesce to break glass in an emergency and install leader-in-waiting Ashton Hurn.

Mr Malinauskas might be an extremely talented politician but the government he leads is not extraordinary. Typically for a state government, there a few adept frontbenchers and an unremarkable rank and file.

Make no mistake, Mr Malinauskas’s dynamism, common touch, optimism and polite assertiveness are the reasons his government is in such an impregnable position.

Doubtless, he will respond to this stunning poll by warning his troops against arrogance and overconfidence, which now are their biggest risks.